Very small rain chance today...

A cold front is pressing through the region today, and as that continues to occur, there is a very limited chance of a couple of isolated showers or storms. However, I anticipate the vast majority of our area will remain dry, and the chance of any one spot seeing measurable rain today is likely less than 1 in 10.

Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a partly sunny sky. Lows tonight drop into the 60s.

A good-looking weekend is on tap with sunshine and highs Saturday in the 80s and Sunday's highs in the lower 90s.

The warmth marches on next week with lots of upper 80s and lower 90s for highs.

Tropics...

Karl is now a major hurricane, and Karl will likely continue to strengthen right up until it makes landfall on the Mexican coast late today. The system will then rapidly spin down as it encounters the mountains of Mexico, however, flooding and mudslides will then become a problem.

Igor remains a major hurricane, and will likely continue as a major hurricane as it passes very close to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday morning. Igor will still be moving relatively slowly as it impacts Bermuda, so an extended period of hurricane-force winds are likely there.

Julia continues to weaken as it heads into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Aside from wave action and rip currents, none of the systems will have a U.S. impact.

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Karl update....

Karl is exploding in intensity today, and I think it has a chance to be a formidable hurricane when it makes it's second landfall in Mexico late tomorrow.

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Same song, different verse....

If you have creative ways of saying "warm and dry," let me know....because I have officially run out.

The same type of weather will continue around our region for at least the next week or so. Highs today will be in the lower 90s across the region. A cold front is approaching the area, and out ahead of that front, we will see some mainly high clouds at times today. The breezes will also pick up a bit out of the southwest, and that will enhance the fire danger today with the dry ground and low humidity levels we have in place.

The front will progress south of the region with time tomorrow and tomorrow night. I expect the I-85 corridor to remain dry, however, a few showers are possible over in the Coastal Plain. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The weekend will be sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and around 90 or so Sunday.

More of the same next work week...highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lots of sunshine.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Karl has gotten back over water down in the Bay of Capeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Karl could become a weak hurricane prior to its second landfall in Mexico.

Igor remains a powerhouse hurricane with 145mph sustained winds. Igor continues to head on a track that will take it very near Bermuda by early Monday morning. While Igor should weaken before affecting Bermuda, it will likely still be a formidable hurricane.

Hurricane Julia continues to weaken in the eastern Atlantic....it will remain in the open waters.

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More of the same....

The overall weather pattern will remain the same around our region for the foreseeable future. We will continue to see lots of sunshine, warm afternoon temps, and pleasant nights. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the lower 90s with mid to upper 80s Friday through the weekend. Highs next work week will likely pop back up into the lower 90s at times.

The airmass remains very dry, and that means humidity levels will remain low. It also means that rain chances remain very, very low. So, even though we have a pretty strong storm system that will swing just to our north later tomorrow into early Friday, with no moisture to work with, our rain chances will remain extremely low.

Tropics...

Lots going on in the tropics. One at a time...

Igor..... Category 4 with 145mph sustained winds...located northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Igor will head in the general direction of Bermuda Sunday, but will stay well east of the US mainland.

Julia.... Category 4 with 135mph winds...located in the eastern Atlantic. Julia will head generally northwestward into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Karl.... Tropical Storm with 65mph winds....moving into the Yucatan Peninsula from the Caribbean Sea. Karl will get back over water in the Bay of Campeche later Thursday, then make another landfall in Mexico early Saturday.

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Quiet weather continues....Powerful Igor in the Atlantic

Our quiet stretch of weather continues today, and there will not be a great deal of day to day weather changes over the next week or so.

Today will feature lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Again today, humidity levels will remain quite low. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s.

Highs will top out in the lower 90s in most places tomorrow with upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday. A fairly potent storm system will scoot by to our north Thursday night into Friday morning, but I only anticipate a brief increase in clouds with the system.

Highs Friday into the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

We look to remain warm and dry for the first few days of next work week with highs up into the lower 90s in many spots.

Tropics...

Igor remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135mph. Igor has been stubborn with showing any northward component of motion, but there are signs that a gradual bend to the WNW has begun. All indications remain that Igor will stay well east of the US mainland, but a pass fairly close to Bermuda still looks quite possible. Igor will fluctuate in intensity but should remain a powerful hurricane.

Hurricane Julia is way out on the other side of the Atlantic. It still appears Julia will head northwest into the open Atlantic waters.

And, our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is not any better organized this morning. There remains at least some chance of this becoming a classified system as it heads toward the Yucatan, the southern Gulf, and then likely Mexico.

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College football talk...

What I anticipated to be a terrific day of college football last Saturday wound up being kind of....meh. Of course, a so-so day of college football is exponentially better than a terrific sports day in July, so it is all about perspective, as Dr. Wax (college meteorology professor) used to say.

Some random thoughts, in no particular order....

-Alabama is good.....very good. Granted, I don't think Penn State is exactly a world-beater, but that was a far more dominating game than even the score indicated. The Big 10 never, ever seems to do well against the SEC, and this was definitely no exception. As for Alabama, if anybody, anywhere, had any doubts as to Trent Richardson's abilities, those were quickly done away with. That guy is a freak...a rare combination of incredible power with agility and speed. Oh yeah....and their QB has never lost a game he started, and they have a couple of NFL-caliber WRs. Now throw the Heisman Trophy winner back into the equation....yikes. I still think they will likely lose somewhere along the line, but good luck trying to figure out when.

-South Carolina just might very well be the team to beat in the SEC East. With a win Saturday over Georgia, they have overcome a hurdle that normally trips them up. And the second factor that makes me say that is....

-Florida's offense continues to really struggle. They pulled away late in the game against South Florida, but it was a struggle for quite a while. Sure gives me the idea that the SEC East will be decided November 13 in The Swamp.

-Just a painful loss for my MSU Bulldogs to Auburn Thursday night. Some people say that those were two bad teams duking it out. I don't think so. I think it was two good teams scratching and clawing. The game was right there for the taking for State, and too many missed opportunities did us in. Credit to Auburn...they will win a lot of games this year, and Cam Newton is the real deal.

-Virginia Tech....classic case of a team just not emotionally recovering from a game against Boise State where they simply left it all out on the field. Or maybe they are just that bad. But I doubt it. However, this VT loss to James Madison likely ended (or darn close to ended) the national title chances for Boise State.

-Florida State.....still really bad on defense. Of course, that Oklahoma offense makes most defenses look bad.

- Ohio State....tough to know how good Miami is, but Ohio State is good. Many wondered if the Hurricanes were a mature enough team to go into Columbus and get a win.....not yet.

-Tennessee played a great game against Oregon....for a half. Then the Ducks simply squeezed the life out of the Vols and sent 102,000 home wet and unhappy.

- LSU- Good defense...putrid offense. It will be a battle down in Baton Rouge this Saturday night when my Bulldogs travel down there. It is beyond difficult to win a night game down there, but it should be an entertaining game.

-The ACC....wow, that was a bad weekend. This conference is trying hard to gain respectability in the football arena.....weekends like that one don't help. However, NC State had a nice win, and Virginia was very close out in LA.

Well, that's about enough for now...I might type up some NFL talk later in the week....

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Warm afternoons, pleasant nights....

I am back into the regular routine this morning after being away from the weather office last week.

Our region as a whole could use a nice, soaking rain event. Unfortunately, that is not on tap this week. However, since it will remain dry, we might as well get some nice weather to enjoy, and that is the case.

Today highs will warm into the mid 80s for most with lots of sun. Tomorrow, it will be upper 80s to near 90. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday with continued sunshine. Lows each morning will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

I mentioned the region needing some rain. The drought conditions are not to critical levels, but it would be nice to get a couple of good rain events in here. Here are some rainfall deficits since January 1 across the region:

Charlotte: -2.90"
Greensboro: -0.76"
Raleigh: -7.03"
Asheville: -3.16"
Wilmington: -13.05"
GSP: -2.03"

Tropics...

Hurricane Igor is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150mph. Igor might even strengthen a bit more over the next couple of days before a gradual weakening trend begins.

Odds are Igor will not threaten the US East Coast, although that is not set in stone. Interests in Bermuda need to closely monitor Igor's progress.

Tropical Storm Julia is way out in the eastern Atlantic. This will likely be a 'fish storm' and not threaten land.

There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that bears watching for signs of development. It will likely head across the Yucatan and toward northern Mexico.

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