Quiet through the weekend...all eyes on next week

>> Thursday, January 29, 2009

Please see the weather video above....lots of good info in there today.

Docile weather will unfold today with some high clouds and highs near 50. Another shot of chilly air arrives tomorrow with highs in the 40s tomorrow and Saturday. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s Saturday morning.

All eyes in the weather community are on what will likely be a very significant storm system to impact the eastern US next Monday and Tuesday. Please see the video above for lots of good information.

All modeling is showing this system rapidly deepening as it lifts up toward the Northeast US Tuesday, and this will almost certainly a one of the stronger storm systems in a while. The exact weather we see in the Carolinas will greatly depend on the track of the low pressure area.

Let's run down the modeling...again, see the video for all of the graphics with this.

0z, 6z GFS - the furthest east of the models. Takes the low up through coastal sections of the Carolinas.

0z Euro, 0z Canadian - the furthest west of the models. Take the low close to the mountains.

0z UKMET - middle of the road solution. Track looks to be through the Piedmont.

Any of these solutions could be correct. I think the westward trend in the modeling that we saw yesterday is likely over, and in fact, I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro and Canadian shift a little eastward. The GFS is probably a bit too far east....the low pressure should be stronger as it impact the Carolinas that what it is indicating as of the 6z run this morning.

My thinking....right now, it looks like rain will spread into the Piedmont later Monday into Monday night. As the low deepens, colder air rushes into and behind it, and the Carolinas could wind up seeing a decent amount of wrap-around, backlash snows by Tuesday morning.

Most times, we don't get anything significant out of these backlash snows. However, most of the models are very bullish on the amount of precip behind the main low due to powerful upper level dynamics, so I would certainly not rule anything out.

And, remember, the track of the low is key. If the low rides up the mountains, we would see mainly rain in the Piedmont. However, if the low were to wind up tracking up the coast, much more significant snows would then be possible.

This will turn into a raging blizzard somewhere in the Apps up into the the Northeast or Ohio Valley. And, snow is likely in northern Mississippi and Alabama as well.

That is how things look now. Remember, we are still 4+ days away, and lots can change. Stay tuned....

Behind the system, a big blast of cold air should settle in with highs in the 30s mid-week and lows in the teens....maybe even some single digits in the colder spots.


Anonymous 7:38 AM  

Would, say, the Triangle have a better shot at snow with this system? Is it going to be another I-95 storm?


Burgertime 7:57 AM  

Would you predict that Charlotte gets 80 inches of snow out of this storm?? I know you can do it 4 days out!

Matthew East 8:54 AM  

Ben....the better chances will be the farther west you live in the state this time around.

Burger...would love to!

Anonymous 8:56 AM  


Always enjoy reading your posts. I don't go a day without it. Do us all a favor and bring a good dump of snow to the CLT area, please? Thanks I know you can do it. :)

Anonymous 9:52 AM  

Chapel Hill for me.... looks like I'm on the edge. Too far west for the I-95 storms, too far east for everything else.


Anonymous 1:20 PM  

looks like the new gfs and euro run seem to agree with the low tracking through eastern nc...bad news for snow lovers in the eastern part of the state but that track would give us a pretty good dumping of snow in the piedmont and foothills through the mountains wouldnt it?

Anonymous 2:43 PM  

hey matthew,

any chance this system...if it intensifies any faster....pulls down more cold air than anticipated? also with the new model runs, how does that, if at all, change our forecast here in the piedmont?

Matthew East 2:51 PM  

Thanks for your kind words.

Ben, you probably fared better than me with the event last week. Less than a half of an inch at my house.

The farther east it tracks, the better this time around for the Piedmont.

As it stands now, I have no changes to my ideas. The mountains look to get hammered, and there is certainly still a chance for a changeover to snow by Tuesday morning from I-77 westward. Anybody remains fair game for wrap-around later Tuesday.

Anonymous 3:11 PM  

Matthew is this kind of Strom that area that area outside mountains Charlotte point could see freezing rain ??.Also as it stand now could we see inches 3-6 in charlotte?

Anonymous 3:21 PM  

Yeah, I did, and for that I am sorry. East CH got 3 to 4 inches in spots, although my dad's house north of town barely got two.

I was reading that the conditions were "in place" for it to track farther east, which would be nice.... any truth in this?

I hope we still get SOME accumulations on the backside, no matter what happens.

Keep up the awesome blog.... come late November, it's my top bookmark until March! :D


junior weather man 3:37 PM  

Hey Matt,
I was wondering if upper Cleveland County is included in the significant snow totals if this all plays out with westward counties getting a lot of snow?
MAYBE 6-8 INCHES?? (or more(?
Thanks for the great videos!! A LOT of interesting stuff!!

Anonymous 3:49 PM  

I'm not buying the wrap around or "back end" accumulations. That just never turns out.

It looks like it's just too far north and west. I'm thinking it's time to give up and get ready for cold, cold rain.

The only glimmer of hope is the EURO shifted east. Hopefully it'll continue that trend because it's done so well this winter. I'm not going to hold my breather though.


Anonymous 3:49 PM  

Let all hope and pray that which each new run the low will keep moving east.So come Monday and Tuesday everyone in the southern Piedmont could at list see a 10-14INCHES

Jlowe 7:05 PM  

Glad to see you twittering often Matt

DoubleJ 8:29 PM  

Yeah, I wouldn't be at all surprised if all we see out of this is a cold rain, but it is still days away, so I guess anything can happen. Love your videos Matthew, thanks for doing that.

Anonymous 12:21 AM  


im going out on a limb here but ive been sniffing around and it seems the track may be shifting farther east far enough east and it could be a huge storm for us but more west and it would just be rain ....very tense lol just wondering if you were leaning towards a more eastern track as well?

Anonymous 3:08 AM  

hey matthew

just looking over some data before heading to bed...this storm looks like it could be a big hit for us here in western nc...i love snow, but honestl it seems to kind of resemble the superstorm we saw 15 years ago probably not quite that strong, but models seem to be shifting east as time goes on and if that continues, i think we may be in for quite a bit of snow here...even in charlotte. what are your new thoughts on this situation? i mean, this thing has the potential to really bomb out, even here in nc. thanks

Matthew East 7:47 AM  

No, this will not involve freezing rain. Either rain or snow.

Ben, no problem.....I appreciate the bookmarking!

The models will continue to bounce that track around over the next 36 hours...it is in that time-frame for them to do that. However, I don't think the low tracks and farther west and the foothills or much farther east than the coast. But where within that zone makes all of the difference for us in the Piedmont.

See the new blog post and video. Some accums are possible if all pans out, but I don't anticipate a huge storm in the Piedmont right now.

strong wx/nc 10:14 AM  

Matthew, great video and disco for the upcoming storm. I forget to look at your site, but glad I did today.
Sitting 1 hour west on the Queen City in Rutherford County and banked up with the south mountains to my north and Rutherford mountains to my west. Looking for a good thump of snow out here in S WNC!!
Thanks man.....

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