Quiet through the weekend...all eyes on next week

Please see the weather video above....lots of good info in there today.

Docile weather will unfold today with some high clouds and highs near 50. Another shot of chilly air arrives tomorrow with highs in the 40s tomorrow and Saturday. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s Saturday morning.

All eyes in the weather community are on what will likely be a very significant storm system to impact the eastern US next Monday and Tuesday. Please see the video above for lots of good information.

All modeling is showing this system rapidly deepening as it lifts up toward the Northeast US Tuesday, and this will almost certainly a one of the stronger storm systems in a while. The exact weather we see in the Carolinas will greatly depend on the track of the low pressure area.

Let's run down the modeling...again, see the video for all of the graphics with this.

0z, 6z GFS - the furthest east of the models. Takes the low up through coastal sections of the Carolinas.

0z Euro, 0z Canadian - the furthest west of the models. Take the low close to the mountains.

0z UKMET - middle of the road solution. Track looks to be through the Piedmont.

Any of these solutions could be correct. I think the westward trend in the modeling that we saw yesterday is likely over, and in fact, I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro and Canadian shift a little eastward. The GFS is probably a bit too far east....the low pressure should be stronger as it impact the Carolinas that what it is indicating as of the 6z run this morning.

My thinking....right now, it looks like rain will spread into the Piedmont later Monday into Monday night. As the low deepens, colder air rushes into and behind it, and the Carolinas could wind up seeing a decent amount of wrap-around, backlash snows by Tuesday morning.

Most times, we don't get anything significant out of these backlash snows. However, most of the models are very bullish on the amount of precip behind the main low due to powerful upper level dynamics, so I would certainly not rule anything out.

And, remember, the track of the low is key. If the low rides up the mountains, we would see mainly rain in the Piedmont. However, if the low were to wind up tracking up the coast, much more significant snows would then be possible.

This will turn into a raging blizzard somewhere in the Apps up into the the Northeast or Ohio Valley. And, snow is likely in northern Mississippi and Alabama as well.

That is how things look now. Remember, we are still 4+ days away, and lots can change. Stay tuned....

Behind the system, a big blast of cold air should settle in with highs in the 30s mid-week and lows in the teens....maybe even some single digits in the colder spots.