>> Thursday, January 28, 2010

Quick thoughts.....the 12z models all shifted things slightly north, but that trend might be pausing with the 18z runs today. The north trend is not there on the latest SREF, which was the first to pick up on the north trend earlier, and the 18z NAM now looks slightly colder again.

All that to say I am not changing anything with the accumulation ideas I have out as of now. I will re-evaluate things again this evening and see where we stand.

I see nothing to change my mind about this being a major winter storm, with generally the same precip types I have been mentioning for the various geographic areas. See the morning post below. The Charlotte region remains the toughest nut to crack.

You need to prepare for the likelihood that travel will be difficult if not nearly impossible by later Friday night and Saturday. Also, power outages are a concern, so make preparations for that as well.


Anonymous 3:28 PM  

Matt, you're the man!! (Weatherman, that is!, sorry that was bad)

Yeah, the 18Z NAM was just the oxygen tank I needed. It seems the new NAM is quite snow-rific for Charlotte. That makes me happy.

That makes the SREF, HIRES, and now NAM I guess with the 850 line south of Charlotte. Thanks again for the update!


DoubleJ 3:39 PM  

Wow, I know its not set in stone yet, but that is much better news than a major ice storm. I'd much rather see 6-10 inches of snow anyday compared to an inch or more of ice, yuck.

Anonymous 3:44 PM  

Matt do you think that in South Charlotte we could see 6-10 inches plus+?

Anonymous 3:44 PM  

Yowza... take a look at the 18z NAM snowfall maps! Spits out a nice bullseye of around a foot over the Triangle with 1.25"+ QPF.


Anonymous 3:49 PM  

Wow even Charlotte is in the 6-10 Zone.

Jason 3:58 PM  

Hey Matthew! thank you so much for your daily updates. I start everyday with them. I do have a question. What is the snow ratio for the triad area, (winston-salem). is it 10:1 or 20:1.

Tyler Legg 4:09 PM  


I'm agreeing with you!! After reviewing the NAM, it looks like we might see a big snowstorm after all. But, of course I'm not a trained met...

Anonymous 4:14 PM  

Is it just me or it sure starting to feel like the Feb 04 Snow storm when we got 21 inches in Charlotte

Tyler Legg 4:16 PM  

Nope not just you...

Unknown 4:17 PM  

This could very well be a big one for Charlotte and most of NC.

Anonymous 4:19 PM  

How does the new 18z run refelect on the coastal plain? Matt, have your thoughts cahnge any for Hyde County?

DoubleJ 4:23 PM  

Winter Storm warning has been issued. Charlotte is included in that obviously, good news for us, assuming we can avoid a large chunk of ice.

Anonymous 4:25 PM  

Does anyone know why Union and York counties are not in the warning as of yet?

Anonymous 4:26 PM  

It a great news .Expect on WCNC they said they expect Charlotte to get more ICE then snow

Anonymous 4:29 PM  

I think Both Union and York counties are not under a warning .I think both of this counties will be issue a ICE storm warning

Anonymous 5:12 PM  

The 18z GFS is colder now and also wetter what do you think?? Chris

Anonymous 5:44 PM  

Wow... 44 comments just today alone (as of 5:39pm Thursday, Jan. 28)... (45 comments including this one.) since this maybe the first significant snowfall for Charlotte, everyone is getting excited!! That makes total 100 comments in the past 3 days I believe (including today). Matthew, I hope you can keep up with all these and trying stay on top of things... hope your blog site doesn't crash...(LOL!) I am sure you can let a big "sigh" once this is all done and over with.

God bless you for your hard work,

Anonymous 7:16 PM  

don't forget the warm nose at between 700-850, especially if it is pronounced. This may surprise folks, who are focusing only on precip, 850 mb temps.

Anonymous 7:40 PM  

i live in hyde county north carolina. the nws forecast discussion says that they are concerned that the low could be far enough offshore to reduce the warmer upper layer. also, i do not have access to the euro or most of the models. does anyone know if my area will see any snow accumulations?

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