Major winter storm appears on the way...

>> Thursday, January 28, 2010



All eyes are on our next storm system. Today, that system is a major winter storm for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. This will spread eastward tonight and tomorrow and arrive here by later tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Ahead of the system, we will actually see a mild day today with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Clouds will roll in and thicken up tonight and tomorrow. Any precip should hold off until later tomorrow afternoon, and in many spots, tomorrow evening.

There is still some uncertainty with the very small scale features that play a big roll in winter weather around here, but the overall ideas remain unchanged from the past couple of days. The foreign models are overall slightly colder than the GFS, and that adds to the uncertainty.

For much of the Triad region, I am still thinking this system will be mainly snow, although I can't rule out some sleet mixing in. Snow amounts looks quite significant, and while it is still a little early for specifics regarding accumulations, I am going with a widespread 6-12" snow event.

For the Triangle, I am thinking much the same as the Triad, especially from RDU northward, although a little more sleet could be involved.

For the Charlotte region, still a very tough call. See the video for details, but for the time being, I am going with 2-6", accounting for the chance of some sleet and freezing rain being involved. IF there is little in the way of sleet or freezing rain, that 2-6" would have to be raised significantly.

Travel will likely become difficult to impossible by later Friday night and Saturday morning. It is also going to get very cold behind the system with lows in the lower teens Sunday morning and likely some single digits in a few spots Monday morning.

This is a changeable weather situation, and we will adjust these accumulations ideas as necessary. Stay with News 14 Carolina....we will keep you completely up to date through the storm.

28 comments:

Anonymous 7:24 AM  

This morning, hearing bold forecasts for widespread major southern Mid Atlantic snowstorm. They are saying 8-16" inches in swath from Triad to as far south as Charlotte and east to Raleigh. Also, they say another chance for snow next Tuesday and MAYBE next weekend too!

Anonymous 7:27 AM  

heres the qpf from EURO
LIT 1.25"
MEM .85
JAN 1.10"
HSV 1.80"
CHA 1.20"
BNA .60"
TYS 1.0"
TRI 1.20"
ATL 1.15"
RMG 1.40"
MCN 1.10"
GSP 1.30"
CAE 1.05"
CHS .80"
AVL 1.35"
CLT 1.25"
HKY 1.30"
GSO 1.05"
RDU 1.05"
all eastern NC btwn .75 and 1.0"

RNK .75"
RIC .65"
ORF .85
DC .10"

Anonymous 7:36 AM  

1st anon, from where?

Anonymous 7:38 AM  

For folks in the SW NC Mtns check out localyokelweather.com. Good stuff!

Anonymous 7:54 AM  

Where can I find this forecast that is calling for 8"-16"? Thanks

AMR 8:26 AM  

So much work, Matthew. Thanks!

Anonymous 8:30 AM  

Good Video Matt! However I live in Hyde COunty in Coastal NC and could not see if we were in Snow or Mixed Precip. Do you think we will see snow accumulations?

Carrie 8:49 AM  

Thanks so much for the explanation! We're crossing our fingers - - - for the kids, of course.

Carrie

Matthew East 8:53 AM  

No problem. Of course, Carrie!

Hyde county remains a tough call....

Anonymous 8:54 AM  

Matt....I'm from Raleigh and was suppose to go to CLT this weekend for my brothers birthday. If we did go friday....what's the thaw out look like for Sunday....Do you think we'd be stuck in CLT until Monday?? Thanks for all your hard work.

Unknown 9:20 AM  

Hi Matt - Is there any chance of enough ice for power outages and that sort of thing? I'm in the Fort Mill/Rock Hill area. Looks like you're saying that at least at the moment, it looks like more of a snow/sleet event around these parts, and if anything, it has a chance of trending more towards snow. Does that sound right? Just wondering if picking up gas for the generator might be going a bit overboard :)

-Bill

Matthew East 9:35 AM  

By Sunday, a lot of the highways would be improved, but backroads would still be problematic.

Bill, can't rule out power outages. Might not need it, but it wouldn't hurt to have it anyway.....

Anonymous 9:58 AM  

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Hyde COunty and all of ENC! Keep us updated Matt! Keep up the good job.

Chappy 10:02 AM  

Great stuff, Matthew.

Thanks for all your hard work.

MartinB 10:48 AM  

What kind of accumulations do you expect we might see in the Boone area?

Siggy 11:11 AM  

Latest run of the NAM model shows a big move to the North, just like the GFS...hope it trends back South!

Anonymous 11:14 AM  

I do not see any where that says it has made a big track north!

Siggy 11:28 AM  

Go to the following link: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GSPok

This is the latest run of the NAM. I live in NE Catawba County & this morning the NAM had me in the 14 inch range, now it has me in the 8 inch range. The "sweet spot" has moved North.

Anonymous 11:29 AM  

Matthew,

Does the 12z GFS looking to be trending wetter with this model run?

It indicates the cold will be holding its ground where it sets up and will be forcing the warm air to rise over it. More Lift = more QPF.

Mason

Anonymous 12:27 PM  

Matt,
Ok, we're jumping off the cliff here with the 12Z models (UKIE/NAM) coming in warmer; showing more ice. Is there a clear trend of ice for the CLT Matt? Seems like the upper level disturbance is.....disturbingly moving north. Hopefully the 12Z EURO/CMC will hold serve with snow for CLT.

Brad

Anonymous 12:42 PM  

Matt,

Are you seeing anything of a warm nose down the line that would substancially lower snowfall amounts in the Triad?

Mason

DoubleJ 1:37 PM  

Accuweather has bought into the warmer scenario, and listed as rain and ice as its forecast for Friday night into Saturday. I personally think that's missing the boat entirely, even if some of the ice does occur.

Matthew East 2:00 PM  

Yes, trend on the 12z models is more toward ice for the Charlotte region. Not going to make any drastic changes as of now.

Anonymous 2:03 PM  

Matt, how is the coastal plain looking and how are the EURO and Canadian models looking? Are they still on the colder scenario, giving mostly snow north of hwy 264?

Anonymous 2:22 PM  

Matthew, What are the chances that the trend will go back colder and less ice at this point in time?

Anonymous 2:35 PM  

Hi Matt if we do get ICE in charlotte could it be as bad as the 2002 ICE storm ?

Anonymous 3:12 PM  

Matt,
You probably saw this but I wanted to bring this over here....it seems like the 12Z NAM and GFS were suffering from some convective feedback issues; thus the ultra-phasing and moving the ULL north, according to the HPC. Does that sound right? If that's the case can we throw those in the trash and keep our EURO line right below CLT? Also it seems like the SREF grids keep the 850 line right on the SC/NC border as well, meaning we may not have to go on the ICE bus quite just yet! Do you agree with that Matt? Thanks.

Brad

Matthew East 3:16 PM  

Just put up some quick thoughts in a new post....

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