Tropical Depression One forms...

The disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has organized itself into the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season.

You can find all of the latest information on the system on the NHC page, which is linked to the right of this post.

The computer model data continues to be split into basically two camps. Most models take the system generally north, then northeastward into the Big Bend region of Florida and then up the Eastern Seaboard. A few models move the system more slowly northward through the Gulf and eventually have a landfall anywhere from Texas to Louisiana or Mississippi.

My general thinking remains unchanged in that I feel the Florida then East coast idea is the most likely one.

TD1 has a decent chance of becoming a tropical storm before landfall, but upper level winds should be fairly hostile over the system. Therefore, significant strengthening seems likely.

Off to grab some lunch with my family, then I will be in the weather office this afternoon to put together the evening forecast package....

More information coming later today...