Tropical Update

The system down in the western Caribbean Sea continues to gradually organize itself this afternoon. Almost every major computer model "sees" the system now as well. Because the system is so close to the Yucatan Peninsula, I think overall development will be slow. However, I fully expect that before the weekend is out we will be talking about our first tropical system of the season.

I mentioned the computer models. Here is a link that plots some of the computer model data for this system...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

A brief explanation here. Most of the models plotted on that map are tropical models. They have varying degrees of reliability, and each has some known biases. The blue plot, or the UKMET, is a computer model run out of Great Britain.

You can clearly see that the general idea from most models is for the system to push into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it gets caught by an approaching trough and turned northeastward on most models.

By the way, take a look at what the Canadian model does with the system after an initial Florida landfall...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006060900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=102hr

I need to mention that there is the chance that the system will move slow enough so that the trough "misses" it. In that situation, the system would meander around the Gulf for a while, and probably eventually head toward Texas. However, I think the best idea for the time being is the idea that this thing crosses the Yucatan this weekend, and heads for Florida by mid-week. After that, it could very well ride up along the Atlantic Seaboard. Keep in mind, ALL of this could change, so stay tuned...

What about intensity? Well, most of that is conjecture at this point because the system really hasn't formed yet. However, my initial thoughts are that the system has a decent shot of becoming our first tropical storm of the season.

Stay tuned...