Ice???

>> Saturday, December 16, 2006

The 0z Canadian model has come in with the solution below for next weekend....
That is a Gulf of Mexico low pressure area about to come up the East Coast with a well-defined cold air damming signal from the Northeast right down through the Carolinas. That set-up would threaten the Carolinas with some wintry weather, probably ice.

The 0z GFS and to some extent the 0z European models are at least somewhat on board with that general type of set-up.

Now, I certainly am not saying we are going to have an ice storm next weekend. But, I did want to discuss with you what a couple of models were showing for about one week from now.

The models have really been struggling in the medium range, so this general idea will probably change. However, it is certainly interesting to watch!

4 comments:

Anonymous 9:54 AM  

Well, obviously this isn't showing up across the board, but is this model the one that handles these situations the best?

Matthew East 10:24 AM  

Well, I do think the Canadian often does a respectable job in the medium range. However, I don't think any model solution is to be trusted in this convoluted pattern next week. This is about as tough as it gets for the computer models, so I think really any of the solutions on the table are viable right now.

I would be a tad more optomistic about the chances of the Canadian scenario panning out if we could get a couple of GFS and Euro runs completely on board as well. We shall see...

QueenCityWx 12:14 PM  

That high sure does stay locked in on the canadian. That could be an extended period of ice if it verified.

Do you agree?

Matthew East 8:01 PM  

Yeah, if the 0z Canadian verified, I think portions of the Carolinas would have some serious ice issues. However, I am doubtful of that solution.

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