Ernesto looking dangerous

I am becoming increasingly concerned with what I am seeing with Ernesto. The system has been battling formidable shear for a while now, and not only has it sustained itself, it has actually gotten better organized.

The shear is due to an upper level low (ULL) near Cuba and Jamaica. That ULL should weaken and move westward, away from the path of Ernesto. So, as the shear lessens over the system, it should be all systems go for some fairly rapid strengthening. Think of it like this...

Imagine you are running with a parachute attached to you. You are running and making some progress, but it is incredibly hard work to move forward. Well, now imagine you get cut free from the parachute. You are off to the races and running quite quickly....and it seems rather effort-less.

That is what can happen with Ernesto. When the shear decreases (parachute gets cut free), it could be off to the races intensity-wise. In addition, the Gulf environment looks like it will be favorable for the system, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are very warm there. So, my thinking...

I am getting more and more concerned we will be dealing with a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. As far as the eventual landfall, anyone is still fair game from Texas to Florida. So, anyone with interesting along the Gulf coast need to closely monitor Ernesto.