Ernesto and Tara...

Sounds like some sort of movie, doesn't it?

Looks like TD 5 will be classified as a tropical storm with the NHC's 5pm advisory. However, you can clearly see on visible satellite images that the low level center is to the west of the deep convection. Looks like that shear talked about below is now affecting the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

As long as that shear remains in place, don't look for major strengthening. In fact, the system will likely look pretty ragged for much of the weekend. However, once Ernesto gets to the western Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf, things could be in place for some significant strengthening. We shall see....

And, Tara has gone into labor and is in the process of delivering their second bundle of joy. Our prayers with the Lane family for the safe delivery of the new little one....