Ernesto-to-be...

Looking at the data I can see right now, I think TD 5 is a tropical storm. We will know for sure later today when a recon plane gets into the system. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with their 11am advisory. They want to make sure the center of circulation is underneath the deep convection. If it is, then look out...we could see some fairly rapid strengthening.

Here is how the system looks as of this typing...

Again, if the center of circulation is under that deep convection, we definitely have a tropical storm.

Take a look at this image...

There is an upper level low near Cuba and Hispanola. That ULL will likely increase the shear over TD 5 this weekend, at least temporarily dampening the strengthening trend. If the system survives that increased shear (and I think it will), then by next week the stage could very well be set for this to become a strong hurricane. Time will tell...

As for the track, there has been a generally eastward shift in most of the models since yesterday. Here is how some of the models shape up this morning...

Again, if this thing survives, it almost certainly will be in the Gulf next work week. Eventual landfall at this point would seem to be most likely on the central or western Gulf coast...i.e., somewhere between Texas to about Panama City, FL.

That is where things stand right now. We will be talking much more about this over the weekend. Stay tuned!