Warm finish to the work week, then big changes...

>> Wednesday, December 04, 2013

A warm front has continued to bring some showers to our region through the night, and warmer air behind that front will continue to work into the region. The warmer setup will be most noticeable tomorrow and Friday when lots of  70s work in for highs just ahead of our next cold front.

The incoming system will be a very messy one from the Rockies into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. In fact, this continues to look like a very significant ice storm for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and western Tennessee especially.

Around the Carolinas, we will have falling temps as we get deeper into Saturday with showers at times through the day. Then, as a strong area of high pressure moves from the northern Plains into the Northeast, a cold air damming episode will occur Sunday.

I have no real changes to my thinking I outlined previously. For parts of the Virginias, this could be a pretty significant bout of ice (freezing rain), and depending on the strength of the wedge, I fully expect the potential to be there for a period of some freezing rain in some NC foothills locations at least.

However, there is nothing to anchor that high in the Northeast, so most in NC should wind up with a cold, raw, rainy day Sunday with temps in the 30s.

As I mention in the video, we will not have a ton of confidence until we continue to see this incoming airmass get sampled better as it pulls deeper into North America. And, the modeling often under-estimates the cold air associated with a wedge around here.

As of this typing, the coldest model is the Canadian. Often times it does a nice job around this region with CAD scenarios, so we will see.

Here's today's video:


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