Warm today and tomorrow....then big changes for the weekend....

>> Thursday, December 05, 2013

Highs will be way above average today and tomorrow. In fact, some record highs could be challenged across the region tomorrow afternoon.

However, let's get right into the weekend. I anticipate falling temperatures through the day Saturday with some rain at times.

By Sunday, an arctic high pressure will be located over the Northeast, in a classic position for cold air damming. Now, the high will be transient and will lift well off to the north by Sunday night. However, for a period of time, the setup for a wedge is near perfect.

The result of the CAD will be a very cold, raw day Sunday. I have not changed my thinking much here. A significant ice event looks likely in portions of the Virginias, and my confidence has only increased that the NC foothills (especially northern foothills) will deal with at least a period of freezing rain Sunday.

The NAM and Canadian models are the coldest model solutions and push temps below freezing all of the way down to I-40 for an extended period of time Sunday. The GFS and Euro keep the freezing line up near the VA border. The Canadian model is often quite good around here in CAD situations, and I am easing my forecast in the direction of the colder modeling. You also have to keep in mind that the models often under-estimate the cold air a bit in CAD situations too.

Please see the video for much more. One thinking working against the coldest of solutions is that the coldest air will still be west of the mountains as opposed to over the Northeast. Again, please watch the video for more....


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