Minor winter weather event tomorrow morning.... lots of rain tomorrow....

>> Monday, November 25, 2013

Please see today's video for lots of details about our incoming storm system. 

Arctic air remains entrenched across the region today. Highs will struggle to make it into the lower 40s this afternoon.

Our next system is in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast region, and it will begin to spread precip in tonight. Our airmass is very dry, and as the precipitation arrives, evaporation will take place. So, I expect many folks will see a little sleet tonight as the precip first arrives. Then, as temperatures cool to near or just below freezing, a period of freezing rain looks possible in parts of the region.

Any freezing rain will quickly transition to a soaking, chilly rain tomorrow morning, and the rain will continue into tomorrow night. There is no high pressure in the Northeast to provide a feed of fresh, cold air, so the freezing rain will be self-limiting as warmer air aloft is drawn down to the surface.

In terms of ice accumulation, anybody down to around the I-85 corridor is fair game to pick up a brief, minor glazing on elevated surfaces early tomorrow morning. As you head deeper into the foothills and mountains, that is where some places could briefly see 0.10" or so of ice accumulation with up to 0.20" possible in the coldest, most protected locations.

Once the rain settles in, it will be significant. Look for widespread 1-2"+ amounts.

Thanksgiving and Friday look cold and dry. 


Anonymous 7:32 AM  

Hey Matt,
Why is it that the NAO and AO are struggling to go negative. Seems like one day the forecasts show the signals going negative only to a change the next day of being positive.


Matthew East 9:01 AM  

The global weather pattern just does not want to go to that at the moment. The 'why' question is bigger than me...haha. The pattern wants to stay progressive.

Michael 8:22 PM  

With dewpoints so low, are you guys underestimating evaporating cooling?

Matthew East 7:26 AM  

Michael... the problem is that first of all, the rain would be light, so dewpoints would slowly climb without the temp dropping much. Secondly, with warm air aloft, the rain pulls that warmer air down to the surface in time.

Michael 8:54 AM  

Thanks, Matt. That's a good thing, because just a degree or two could have turned this much rain into a terrible ice storm... I'm sure you remember December 5, 2002.

Matthew East 10:23 AM  

Michael... yep, all that was needed was a high pressure anchored in the Northeast and this would've been bad.

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