Thursday Morning Update...

The counties in the brither blue shading are countines the NWS has placed uner a Winter Weather Advisory. The darker shade of blue is a Winter Storm Watch.




First of all, feels like I might be starting to go down with the flu my family has been battling all week. Hopefully not....

On to the weather event tonight into tomorrow. Taken at face value, really all modeling is showing only rain for the immediate Charlotte area. Now, as is usually yhe case, the models will probably under-estimate the amount of dry air in place initially as the precip moves in. If that is the case, then there will be a few pockets of sleet as the precip starts, but all indications are that the immediate Charlotte area will remain at or above freezing.

However, as you head up toward I-40, that is where temps could tip below freezing later tonight, and there could be some light icing on elevated surfaces.

For the Triad, tricky call here. This area of the northwest Piedmont will be the area that sees the most ice potential of our three coverage areas. It looks like there could be an initial burst of sleet or snow as the precip moves in, but then we change over to rain or freezing rain, depending on surface temps. While the MOS data really keeps most spots at or above freezing, that seems unlikely. For the Triad area up to the Virginia border counties, ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch could occur.

There are some concerns to this forecast. For instance, the NAM and the GFS really differ on the amount of precip that will fall...the GFS being lighter. Also, if the airmass is dramatically drier than models indicate, there could be some minor icing farther south than I have indicated above.

For now though, my thoughts really line up well with the NWS, and I like their placement of the Winter Weather Advisories.