Hanna Thoughts...

Putting it simply, Hanna looks rough this morning. Shear and proximity to Hispaniola have taken a significant toll on the system.

With that said, the overall environment around Hanna will improve over the next 12-24 hours, and I anticipate we will see Hanna organize over the next couple of days. All indications continue to be that Hanna will be a hurricane at landfall. How strong a hurricane is a big question mark, and until I see that the system can develop some deep convection around the center again, I will not have much confidence in the intensity forecast.

The system has been moving erratically, but a northwest motion should settle in today and tonight. There was an eastward shift in most of the model guidance overnight, especially with the inland track of Hanna.

So, the call here is for a landfall on the Carolina coast by Friday night. That could be either North or South Carolina. The inland track of Hanna could very well be across eastern portions of the Carolinas. If that is the case, the Charlotte and Triad zones could see periods of rain and some breezy conditions, but the worst effects would be along and east of I-95. But it is really too early for any specifics like that at this juncture.

It is a wait and see deal at this point. The elements are still on the table for some significant strengthening of the system, but we will have to see if that actually occurs.