All eyes on Hanna....

>> Tuesday, September 02, 2008

See the video above for a run down of the modeling on Hanna.

Hanna is a fighter. The system has had to battle tons of shear for its entire existence, and yet it managed to attain hurricane status before weakening back down to a strong tropical storm.

That shear should relax over the next couple of days, and my concern is that Hanna could really ramp up in intensity. Imagine it like this.....you are pushing an object up a hill. The object weighs 150 pounds. You struggle with it, but you are slowly moving it up the hill. Now, what if all of the sudden, the weight of the object decreased to 50 pounds? You would really be able to move it with ease now.

That is my concern with Hanna....once this shear relaxes, it could really pop.

I expect a strengthening system as Hanna approaches the coast. Landfall will likely be on the upper Georgia or South Carolina coast...although the North Carolina coast cannot be ruled out. Landfall will likely occur Friday.

How strong will Hanna be at landfall? My thinking is at least a Category 2 hurricane, maybe higher. The shear should relax, and Hanna will head over the Gulf stream. So, if you have interests along the Georgia or Carolina coasts, you can expect surf and rip currents to really pick up over the next couple of days. Conditions will deteriorate Thursday night into Friday as Hanna approaches the coast and makes landfall.

Now, for interior portions of the Carolinas, including the Triad, Triangle, and Charlotte regions. If current indications hold, we could see some rainy and very windy condition arrive later Friday and Friday night....ending early Saturday. How significant of an event this is will depend on the strength and track of Hanna. There is a chance most of the rains could stay in eastern portions of the state, but it is too soon to tell.

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