Cold and breezy today....watching next week....

>> Thursday, February 25, 2010

Some folks saw some snow showers overnight last night, and a few places around the region will continue to see a few flakes this morning. However, the big story today (outside of the mountains where snow will continue) is cold and breezy conditions. Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 40s, and when you factor in the wind, we will see wind chill values sub-freezing much of the day.

Lows drop into the 20s tonight, and highs will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow with breeziness continuing.

This weekend will be cool and dry, but I continue to be very interested in a potential system next week.

See the video for lots of details on this. As of now, my thinking is unchanged....somebody across the Southeast will likely see a good snow event out of this. I think the GFS is far too suppressed with this system, and I am definitely in the camp of the foreign models in their handling of this system right now. The details of where and how much are questions I am not ready to answer, but the system certainly bears watching. Again, please see the video today for lots of stuff on this system, including why the GFS is doing what it is doing....


Jennie 6:17 AM  

Nice video this morning Matthew! Love the new blog layout!

Matthew East 6:36 AM  

Thanks, Jennie!

Anonymous 8:16 AM  

Hi Matt,
Based on what you see now, do you believe coastal North Carolina will recieve more snow than rain out of the system Tuesday?

Matthew East 8:36 AM  

I would lean to more rain than snow for the immediate coast, but certainly parts of the coast could see some snow involved at some point....have to get the track nailed down first.

Anonymous 9:21 AM  

Matthew, I guess the track wont be nailed down until Saturday or Sunday?

Anonymous 10:50 AM  

Folks i suspect a westward adjustment of some sort n the modeling just appears to far to the east so you all at the coast looking and seeing mainly snow for now may not be the actual situation again because i suspect some sort of a westward adjustment.Chris

Anonymous 10:56 AM  

Matt don't u suspect a westward adjustment in the models that has the storm the GFS is just ridiculous but it will probably catch back up sometime and i suspect a major hit from probably Roanoke Rapids to Raleigh to Lexington to Raeford and NW from there into Central VA and to the mountains of NC maybe even I-95 westward??Chris

Anonymous 11:47 AM  

It seems the NWS is taking a very relaxed view of the system for next week...saying that even if the EURO came to fruition it would only "spread light" QPF into the Charlotte area. Am I missing something? I thought the EURO and Canadian currently show a major snow event for the region. What's your take on their passive view? You would think with something so expansive they would be raise a little more of a flag. Curious.


Anonymous 11:59 AM  

12z GFS today has a storm back on it but to far east again am expecting it to be farther westward and we get a major hit. Also of note of the 12z GFS is another potential the 11th through the 13th of March that could be another wintry producing system though its starts as rain and goes to snow the track is probably not right it will probably come up the east coast given what Joe Bastardi from accuweather and i think just given the PATTERN than that will probably be the last of our snow for the year but 2 more big hits wit substantial snow will suite me given all of the other snow we have had all winter. What do you think for that system the 11th-13th and next weeks system do you beleive its a farther west track and we get alot of snow?? Chris

Matthew East 1:18 PM  

Yeah, the exact track will be more evident by later in the weekend.

As I stated in the video and morning post, I think the GFS is likely out to lunch next week. I would continue to lean much more with the foreign models.

12 Canadian has come farther north and west....Euro is coming out now. I have not spent much effort on the next possible system...hoping to get this one right!

I don't really comment on other people's forecasts, but the GSP office does a great job. Also, read the Raleigh forecast discussion.

Anonymous 1:43 PM  

Matthew looks the 12z Euro is a smidge closer to the coast? The
12ZGem looks looks closer as well like you said.

Anonymous 2:12 PM  

Yeah, thanks Matt. Don't expect you to comment of the quality of their forecast, just maybe they were sticking to something that we didn't see IN their forecast.

LOL, forget the appetizers, let's get right in to the BIG BEEF BURRITO!


Anonymous 2:50 PM  

well i live in coastal carolina so i hope the models do not shift close enough for rain. we havent had a large snow this year. im hoping the coast gets snow. and for some reason i think what is actually going to happen is what the GFS was saying monday before it was garbage...........

Anonymous 3:32 PM  

NWS service Raleigh saying in there afternoon post that everythign is faster how do you change a forecast based on every little model change that comes out of course the models is going to waiver you cant change a forecast just because the models change every time they are run,this still appears to me to be a major snow for our area even though the models because 9 times out of 10 they go back to the same solution they showed a week or so ago thus the GFS will probably do so the weekend. CHris

Anonymous 3:33 PM  

They think its gonna be not a big system system what has the models been showing something big.

Anonymous 3:48 PM  

Yeah, for the afternoon update the NWS is discounting this storm again...rain, mix? Light precipitation? Well time to temper the enthusiasm a little maybe.


Matthew East 4:41 PM  

At this point, I am not concerned with amounts of precip or boundary layer temps. That is like fretting over the potential features a cd player in a car has before you even go and look at the car itself.

At this point, I am concerned with getting the track of the features, surface and aloft, nailed down. That is the basic details that will drive this whole boat, and those details are anything but certain as of now.

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