Windy again today...potential winter storm next week...

>> Friday, February 26, 2010

We will have another windy day around the region today with a lot of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will gust over 30 or 35mph at times today, so it will be a cold, blustery day.

The weekend weather looks pretty quiet with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and a decent amount of sunshine.

All eyes are really focused on our system Tuesday into Wednesday next week. After being as lost as a duck in a hail storm yesterday, the GFS has caught onto the idea the foreign modeling has had on this system. Frankly, the model agreement is about as good as you could ask for several days out on this....which makes me nervous.....just waiting for something to go awry.

All in all, my position here is unchanged from the past few days. I still think the potential is high for a big snow event for parts of the Southeast. Please see the video for lots of details. Right now, I think some snow is possible in north and central Mississippi and Alabama, but the potential for heavier snow totals really begins to increase as you head from northern Georgia and especially into the Carolinas.....especially the western and central Carolinas....maybe even coastal parts of North Carolina.

This is a fluid situation with lots of moving parts.....and small scale changes in features can have big implications to the forecast. Lots could change....

Stay tuned....


Anonymous 8:36 AM  

Wow, sounds great Matt. You're starting to sound like you did several days before the late January system. We got a pretty good hit then, so I'm liking where we're going. Thanks for the updates!!


Anonymous 8:45 AM  

I am beginning to think this will turn out to be a blizzard all the way down near the Outer Banks. I for one think the models are underestimating the cold air coming down. Bring on the Snow!

Carrie 9:32 AM  

So exciting!!! Thanks for the update - will be following your blog closely.


Anonymous 12:08 PM  

How about that 13th and 14th major storm that could well turn out to be our last major winter storm of the year yea 2 more storms that is perfectly fine with me and that 13th and 14th storm is on the GFS but now next week 12Z GFS looks even better siginificant snow for areas NW of Raleigh or I-40. And i just ope we can get that other storm 10 days or so later to give NW of Raleigh another major hit. Whats your thinking on next week for now will worry with the other storm after this next storm.Chris

Anonymous 1:22 PM  

Quick question: Is this the kind of system that we're supposed to get most of our snow after the system crosses Florida and moves in to the Atlantic? Or will we get most of our moisture directly from the gulf as it moves to our south? Thanks


Anonymous 1:28 PM  

Looks like the 12Z Euro is farther off the coast. Seeing any trends that pulls the heavier snows away from the Charlotte area, and towards the Triangle. The 12Z GFS looked real close to the coast. Thanks, Matt.

Anonymous 2:46 PM  

I live in Hyde County, NC. I live in a northern county and a coastal county! Really hoping we get snow out of the storm!

Anonymous 3:52 PM  

12 EURO is more than likely just taking a waffle east it will trend westward tomorrow NW of I-85 will probably get the highest totals but anywhere will see measurable. Chris

Tyler Legg 4:25 PM  

Yeah, I'm thinking the EURO is just messing with us. It will more than likely jog back to the coast on the next runs...

Anonymous 4:44 PM  

It's such a fine line...if we drift away from the coast it'll be colder but less moisture/less snow. If we're closer to the coast, it may be warmer and more rain. I really don't know what to root for right now!!??

I just want a good 6 incher that will blanket everything including the roads and keep everything white for a day or so; no melting while it's snowing. I'll take what I can get though.


Matthew East 5:37 PM  

This is a southern branch system, so lots of subtropical branch moisture involved. Moisture source would be the Gulf and Atlantic.

Again, let me stress.....don't worry about QPF numbers right now. Those will be fluid.

Now, we don't need a radical eastward trend to develop....but what we are seeing today is just the models trying to figure out the timing of the phase. 12z Euro phased a little later, thus the eastward shift.

Anonymous 7:25 PM  

Follow your blog all year, but especially during the winter months. I'm in Raleigh however, and Greg Fishel just said we are close to the rain / snow line. Is he just being "safe" and not trying to get folks all worked up?

Anonymous 7:08 AM  

Kelly Franson on WBTV said early guess is 3-6" and that the track is similar to '93 do u see this being a foot of snow for us like '93?

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