Saturday morning quick thoughts....

>> Saturday, February 27, 2010

This is the point I feel the need to say this. I have not said a huge snow storm is going to happen for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Atlanta, or any other one place. It is too early for any confidence that any one spot will really get nailed.

What I have said, and I will still say, is that this system has high potential to bring somebody across the region, and possibly a good number of somebodies, a good snow event.

Uncertainties run rampant this morning. The biggest questions revolve around the timing and interaction of a couple of pieces of upper level in the southern branch, another one diving in from the Midwest. How quickly each of these pieces of energy move, and how quickly they begin to phase with one another, will determine how this event plays out.

The earlier they phase, the farther north and west the system tracks. The later they phase, the farther east and south.

Here is our southern branch system as I type. Give it another 18-24 hours, and it will be in an area with better data sampling to go into the models.

For the western Carolina and north Georgia, generally speaking, you want to see a quicker phase. But not too don't want warm air to flood in. For the eastern Carolinas, a later phase would give you some snow, but an earlier phase and stronger system would probably give you snow to rain and then some nice snow on the back end.

One other thing to watch....there has been some trend on the modeling of making the system not as strong overall. Again, that all has to do with the timing and phasing of the branches.

There you have it. So, snow fans, now is not really the time to let your emotions ebb and flow based on each model run. Give it another day or two, let's let this get more squarely in the range of the shorter range models, and let's see where we stand.


Anonymous 12:14 PM  

Thanks Matt for blog, and the update. I guess as a snowlover, the 12Z NAM and GFS, have everything off shore. Is this because the mid level disturbance hasn't gotten into the data yet, or is the southern jet not getting into the data? Thanks.

Anonymous 1:24 PM  

The 12z Euro, GFS, and NAM are now farther offshore. The Canadian is a little more east than the 0z Run. What does this mean for all of NC?

Matthew East 2:53 PM  

It is just watch and wait time. This thing could trend away from the western Carolinas altogether, or it could come back with better data sampling. Let's give it some time.

Anonymous 3:48 PM  

Hi Matt I see that the newer run of the NAM is looking really good.

Anonymous 4:32 PM  

I really hope coastal NC gets snow. We have been ripped off more than anyone this winter.......Hoping of a nice snowstorm for Mainland Coastal Areas before spring comes......

Anonymous 6:53 PM  

I feel this one is the 6"+ snowfall for CLT. Looking at the data and just wishing.......lets wait and see

Anonymous 7:39 PM  

new 18z GFS is not looking too bad........

Anonymous 1:19 AM  

Matt appears to me model error has captivated these models all winter season as Joe bastardi form accuweather as been pointing all year latest 00z GFS and NAM farther westward and Joe Bastardi said this is likely to a major storm for the Carolinas north really north of I-20 gets snwo but the bigger impacts up here around our area and he said it wouldnt be at all possible to see 1-2 feet amounts around here with this storm because of model error nobody is catching but most will be by Monday and i been expecting the same thing here the new model runs and they are westward probably will trend a little farther NW and we really get a bomb of snow. Chris

Anonymous 2:38 AM  

It would be interesting if this storm repeats the storm we had in February, 2004, when we REALLY got nailed! lol!

Matthew East 7:29 AM  

Lots of options still on the table....see the post I just put up....

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