Sunday morning thoughts....

>> Sunday, February 28, 2010

Some quick thoughts before heading out to church this morning. All in all, it seems any eastward/southward trending has come to an end with the track of the system, and if anything, a few models tried to shift things back west and north just a bit over the past couple of runs.

At this point, I still wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the amount of precip being printed out by the models. That will continue to be adjusted as the event draws nearer.

At this point, it appears odds are highest for the most significant accumulating snow along and east of I-85, and it could wind up that the heaviest snow falls close to I-95 or so in eastern NC. I am not ready to mention amounts is just too uncertain. However, see below....

Now, the main factors impacting the forecast remain the same. It is all about the speed and interaction of the two pieces of energy labeled on the water vapor imagery above. The sooner they phase, the more north and west the track winds up being.

I still have the sneaking suspicion that we will see the track adjusted somewhat more to the west and north. That has been the seasonal trend for sure, and at times, it has not been seen by modeling until less than 24 hours before the event, as with the last widespread snow event. But just because it as happened with previous storms does not mean it will happen this time. So, you can't just take stuff like that to the bank.

However, if we do see that northwest trend develop, then it could wind up being the I-85 corridor or even points north and west that see the most snow.

It is an extremely fine line, and one I will continue to work on figuring out.

By the way, accumulating snow could begin with this all the way back into at least eastern Alabama and maybe farther west. 

There you have it....will be watching the trends today and see how things play out. In the meantime, a pretty nice day today. Enjoy!


Anonymous 8:25 AM  

Thanks for the weekend updates. My curiosity is on the strength of the storm (the track looks not so good). It doesn't seem like it's going to be strong enough to give us a major hit. It's like the phasing that the models saw several days ago is just lost. No phasing until it's off the coast.

Are there any models left that phase this LOW while it's in the gulf? That's what it seems like we need.


Anonymous 8:55 AM  

thanks for the updates matt! i really hope coastal nc gets snow. the GFS Models have been consistent with snow for all of NC with the excetion of the OBX. This storm is really tricky, so thanks matt for dilligently analyzing it with the track changing a million times.......

Anonymous 9:15 AM  

So not much snow for west iredell?

Anonymous 10:13 AM  

hey brad,

models today look like they are phasing faster to me and by the time it the low hits the sc coast we should be sitting in a swath of heavy snow here in charlotte. if the storm is any stronger and it curves just a little more towards the north just inland, we could be looking at(looks around carefully and whispers) 2004 maybe? wouldnt that be awesome!

Anonymous 11:39 AM  

models hinting at big snow east of i95...................including the coast!

Anonymous 11:57 AM  

Yeah, I'm not counting on much once the LOW goes to the atlantic; especially if it's not too strong of a system. I was hoping this thing would phase and boom in the gulf, sucking gulf mositure into our area. I think once it's in the Atlantic, Charlotte is too far west with the track. Raleigh will probably make out good but Charlotte, not so sure.

These are my thoughts today. Matt needs to slap me with some knowledge and I'll probably feel better!:)LOL


DoubleJ 12:35 PM  

Nice update, thanks Matt.

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