>> Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Please see today's video for a detailed wrap-up of the snow event yesterday and last night. On a regional scale, the accumulation forecast I put out worked out pretty well. I had gone with 2-4" for the Triad area, and in most spots, that verified pretty nicely. It looks like the forecast will work out well for much of the RDU area over into northeastern NC and back into the foothills, mountains, and northern Georgia as well.

I mentioned a strip of heavier totals would likely occur, and it did....from the mountains into the foothills and Virginia border counties in the Triad viewing area.

However, the accumulation forecast busted badly from western sections of Charlotte through Gaston and Cleveland counties and down into the Upstate. Plenty of snow fell, but it really struggled to accumulate in this area.

Why? In the Triad, the temp dropped to 33 while the snow was occurring in many spots, and that was good enough to accumulate. For Charlotte back through Gastonia, Shelby, and GSP, the temp dropped to around 34 in many of those places, and accumulations were tough to come by. It did not snow any harder in the Triad than it did in the southern Piedmont. So, the best I can figure is that with the March sun angle, 34 degrees and snow has a tough time accumulating, while 33 degrees and snow accumulated much more easily. At least that is how it worked this time around.

An interesting system, and one I have been tracking with you for well over a week now. Time to put this one to bed and move ahead....

Blustery and cold conditions today with highs in the 40s. Some residual slick spots this morning, especially in the areas that had heavier snow totals.

Each day will get a little milder than the previous one. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 40s to near Saturday mid to upper 50s, and maybe some lower 60s by Monday.

We will stay dry through the weekend, and the weekend will be terrific for any outdoor plans you might have.

The next chance of rain arrives Tuesday into Wednesday next week.


Anonymous 8:23 AM  

thanks for all your hard work, and updates, even though some of the accumulations busted, the point of the matter it snowed, this has to be a tough job, your efforts are greatly, greatly appreciated.

Jeremy 8:48 AM  

Hey Matt, good job on the forecast. I'm in one of those heavier snow total areas on the VA border and here in Reidsville, there is 4-5" on the ground and in Danville, VA this morning there was 2-3".

Anonymous 9:25 AM  

I think the main difference was not so much the one degree of air temps between the triad and CLT but more relevant was the colder ground temps in the triad than in CLT.

Matthew East 9:46 AM  

I appreciate it! Thanks a bunch.

Anon, that is possible I suppose. The interesting thing is that ground temps were actually a decent amount colder ahead of this system than they were ahead of the March 1 event last year. Much colder in some instances. But yes, good point...that could have played a role.

Anonymous 9:54 AM  

Hi Matt, good job and thanks for your updates. I don't know about you, but something tells me we are not done with winter weather just yet.......

Jason 10:01 AM  

Hey Matt, I noticed an interesting occurence yesterday also. I live in Kann. and in the neighborhood I live in I'm on the north side of the street where snow kept melting all day long til dark came but, on the south side of the street the snow piled up all day. It explains why that side of the street, grass stays greener through the hot dry summers. I guess it stays cooler on that side of the street even though it is on the south side of the street. I just found it very intersting. My yard has all melted away this morning while they have 1 to 2 inches on the ground still. I think you do an awesome job on your posts I read them everyday. Thanks

Matthew East 10:18 AM  

Maybe not! Time will tell.....

Jason, interesting about the lawns. Thanks for sharing and reading!

dressseller 11:35 AM  

I found your blog only a couple of weeks ago. I will continue to read and follow as I found your updates very helpful. Your blog looks terrific also the colors.. very easy to read. Thanks so much for sharing all of your expertise.

Anonymous 11:38 AM  

Matt next weeks system around the 10th looks interesting now latest 12z GFS shows more potential for snow and i notice the cold air comes back down after the middl eof next week and I also noted that Joe bastardi from accuweather says that this warm up now is a false spring and we get a late snow this year I think that is possible just given the winter all year he says the real deal spring will more than likely start in April. What do you think?? Chris

Anonymous 11:44 AM  

Matt the 12z GFS now has a big snowstorm the 17th throught the 19th as well i think we could reasonably get another major winter storm around that time than after that one that will probably be hit and also the GFS model has been painting a storm of some sort in that same time frame for a few days now and its relentless and i havnt really saw it go away from not having some sort of storm seen everything from a severe outbreak to a major snow and that seems more reasonable to me?? Chris

Anonymous 12:17 PM  

Thanks Matt. I enjoy having a personal meteorologist at my disposal during the winter weather events!LOL

No, I do really appreciate your accessibility and professionalism. It keeps all of us snow geese up to date and on our toes. I'm sure I'll stop by during Hurricane season. Thanks for all you do. Comment at you soon!


Unknown 12:40 PM  

Good job covering a very challenging event, Matt! I especially appreciate your candor when you are uncertain about the forecast. So many mets express the forecast in certainties, and that's just not possible. It's a forecast, not a prediction, after all. I managed to get 6 inches of very wet snow here in extreme southern Lee County between 11pm and 4am. Huge flakes, light winds, and temp @ 33. Now, at 12:30, it's degraded rather quickly to an inch of slush @ 40 degrees.

Again, thanks for all your fine work!

Matthew East 2:16 PM  

Dresseller, glad you found it and like the layout!

Chris, the 12z GFS is definitely more suppressed with the system next week. And the GFS engulfs much of the country in arctic air again by mid-month.

Thanks, Brad!

John, I always try to call a spade a spade. If I am confident,I will say so. If not, then I will say that too. You got a nice total! That March sun means business today though!

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