Next system rolling our way....

>> Monday, March 01, 2010

I will say right off of the bat....this is a fairly low-confidence forecast. As I mentioned back on Friday, with as much model agreement as there was, you were simply waiting on complications to arise. And they did over the weekend, and they continue as I type.

Some models are very dry with the precip output from our next system, while others are much wetter, and getting wetter (GFS). For my forecast package this morning, I have leaned in the direction of the wetter models for a couple of reasons. First of all, the seasonal trend has been for systems to over-perform on precip output. Secondly, the system looks very impressive as of now.

Ahead of the system, today will be quiet with increasing clouds and highs in the lower 50s. Tonight will be cloudy with lows close to freezing.

For the Carolinas, precip will arrive very early in the day tomorrow. Initially some rain could be involved, but I think very quickly locations roughly along and north of I-85 transition to primarily snow. As the low pressure strengthens along the coast, the rain/snow line will gradually shift eastward.

In terms of potential accumulations, see my map below. Keep in mind....this is my preliminary outlook....changes could be made as we go forward.

For the Triad, I will go with a general 1-3" snow. Much the same for RDU, although it gets trickier as you head east due slightly warmer surface temps. Eastern NC accumulations will all depend on how strong the low is as it cranks off of the coast.

For the Charlotte region, I will go with a general 1-3" area just north and west of town with 2-4" along and just south of I-85 down through the Upstate and into parts of northern Georgia. Again, see the map below.

Please note that if the drier modeling verifies, this forecast will bust badly. But those are my thoughts as of now. Time will tell.


DoubleJ 8:52 AM  

Thanks for the update Matthew. Hope the drier side doesn't play out, but I guess only time will tell.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 9:58 AM  

Hi Matthew-

The latest NAM looks a little better for WNC, but it's still much drier than the GFS. I'm hoping for a NW drift of the storm and precip. However, a NW shift would also hurt those to the east. It never seems to be the case where we can all win at the same time; kinda like life, I guess.

Anonymous 10:24 AM  

i think the models will start falling in line today. this storm has the track, where somebody just has to get hit. idk who that somebody is, but i think somebody is gonna get it.

Anonymous 10:47 AM  

NAM 12z run has very strong snow banding in the coastal plain with near 8" of snow! Something tells me the coastal plain is gonna get it good. Even the coast will. Something tells me the storm is gonna track a little more south and east because of the low over New England......

Anonymous 10:53 AM  

Matt, the 12Z GFS is matching the map of Jeff Crum's Blog, with 4-6 for charlotte to the West. The GFS is holding strong with the Western NC snow. Thanks.

Anonymous 10:56 AM  

welcome to march in the carolinas! its anybodys guess, but remember, we will all probably be wrong lol

DoubleJ 10:58 AM  

Jeff seems to be skeptical. He thinks temps are going to be slighty too warm for a major hit. Meaning a Cold Rain to 1-3 if lucky. I guess when models are not in agreement that will happen, but I'd rather it stay dry if its going to be a cold rain. Seen enough of that.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 10:59 AM  

Just checked out the 12Z GFS! I'm liking that for WNC!! Wow, this is a real battle between NAM and GFS! This has to make things really complicated for NWS in deciding where to put watches/warnings/advisories. I do not envy them!

Anonymous 11:05 AM  

Look at the 12z GFS coming out more snow for Person County im going 4-8 inches around here. Chris

Shannon Bradley 11:18 AM  

Being uneducated in meteorology, I still can appreciate the details incorporated into your forcasts! :) Helps us understand weather and how truly unpredictable it can be at times. Yet, there is an order to it all!! Thanks again!

Anonymous 11:39 AM  

thanks for the thorough explanation, i've been looking hard for a site that does more than just give me the basics and focuses on our Charlotte area, thanks

Anonymous 12:54 PM  

Matt i think 4-8 inches may turn out to correct this system may surprise you all and I think 4-8 inches will turn out from Charlotte to Raleigh and in Roxboro over here in Person County. Chris

Anonymous 12:54 PM  

Ok, Matt, you're killing me here!!:) With the new 12Z models coming out and your WRF in house model screaming moist!, what's your latest thoughts?

It seems like we may get the moisture but I'm wondering if our temps are going to be too high for good accumulation.


Anonymous 1:05 PM  

I'm beginning to think that with the strength of this storm, not to mention that the trend is in our favor for a nice long time period of heavy snow across here and the consistently moist results, we may end up with a 6-10 across here. Someone from a weather forum mentioned that with the dynamics in place that thundersnow is possible as well in spots. We'll see how all this unfolds.

Anonymous 2:01 PM  

Looking at the latest data, I believe the low is going to track a little farther east, setting up the heavy banding over the coastal plain. I think the moment of truth comes when the low reaches Florida. If it tracks more eastward then we get robbed and the coastal plain gets punded. The name shows this happening.....The GFS was garbage the beginning of the week, so I am going witht eh NAM and EURO. Matt, what are your thoughts?

Matthew East 2:11 PM  

Stand by.....quick post coming soon....

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