Robert's post...

>> Friday, March 05, 2010

Here is Robert's blog post. Especially note the last section where Robert previewed the upcoming severe weather season....

With Tuesday's system long gone expect the Piedmont to remain quiet with gradual warming through the entire weekend. Temperatures today will reach into the lower 50s, with breezy conditions ending today. The weekend should be warmer with temps nearing 60, Saturday through Monday.
Tuesday into Wednesday should be our next system. As of right now all signs point towards rain. Models are all showing rain currently with this track and climatology just doesn't favor another winter storm. However, like always we will keep an eye on it with every new model run.

Since things are relatively quiet I have begun looking at the upcoming spring severe weather season for NC. Technically the deep South is already in the beginning of sever weather season going by climatology. In the Past NC has seen many severe events this early in the season. Interesting to note that the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma, the agency that issues tornado and severe T-storm watches for the entire US, reported not a single tornado for the US in the month of February. This is the first time in the 60 years that they have been keeping record. Could this be an indicator of the upcoming season? Most likely not. With an EL NINO signature quickly fading to a normal global pattern expect a storm season to still develop on Schedule or a little later. For a preliminary forecast I will call for an average amount of storm days and severe watches for the area, with a few strong events while the southern jet is still affecting the Southeast. Just a fun guess so we will see how it pans out.

Robert Elvington


Anonymous 5:53 PM  

Robert and MAtt teh latest 18z GFS still shows us havign a major snowstorm the 17-21st time frame I expect it could happen given the pattern Winter is not over?/Chris

Robert Elvington 7:40 PM  

Anony. I saw that, we'll have to keep an eye on it. That is quite a while out and the GFS tends to get excited alot with these tracks. It will probably stay for a few days then disappear then come back again. I'll try not to get too excited until about a week in from impact.

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