Pattern change....

The writing appears to be at least mostly on the wall that the big shift in the pattern will occur soon. The final domino to fall could be a storm system that will roll through next week.

For the Winter thus far, we have had a positive AO and NAO, and that has largely kept the Southeast mild. However, as I have been showing in recent videos, the NAO is headed toward at least neutral if not negative, and now it definitely looks like the AO is headed that way too.

For the actual storm system next week, the Canadian model today brings some snow to Tennessee with it, but extrapolating out, it would likely be rain for most east of the mountains. The European and GFS are rain scenarios for most of the region.

You are dealing with a cutoff low, so a track farther north or south is possible than what modeling shows at the moment. However, I would favor the rain scenario for most of the Southeast as being most likely at this moment, but I wouldn't write off some areas somewhere in the region seeing a little something wintry.

However, the bigger story will likely be that as that low deepens as it lifts up the coast, it appears to be the final nail in the coffin of the big +AO pattern we've been in. A big ridge goes up in western North America, and a ridge develops near Greenland.

So, Winter fans, hang in there. There are no guarantees, but it does appear the pattern will be more favorable for at least the chances of wintry weather as we get deeper in January.