Friday...

Good morning! Things remain essentially unchanged with our tropical disturbance this morning. There is still not a dominant low level center, and thus, still no classification as a tropical depression or storm. However, I still think it is only a matter of time, and assuming this doesn't track directly over Hispaniola, all of the parameters look in place for strengthening.

No changes here on my eventual thoughts with this. It will likely affect the Bahamas, then turn to the north just east of the Florida coast, possibly heading in the direction of the Carolina coast. It could wind up eventually turning inland into the Carolinas, or it could keep moving up the coast. (By the way, the 6z GFS shows the general idea of the former....and absolutely soaks us with rain for days on end. That would be some serious drought relief.) But, it all remains conjecture until it actually forms a low level center and I can see where to start tracking this thing from.

Another recon plane will head in today...more on the blog this afternoon....