Saturday Midday Thoughts....

>> Saturday, August 16, 2008

We are no closer this morning in determining Fay's eventual track then we were last night.The model guidance has shifted back eastward from last night's runs (see on the right column)....and like I said last night, I am still going to leave all options on the table as far as eventual track....anywhere from the central Gulf coast to the Atlantic coast.

I think the Atlantic coast option continues to look less likely simply because of Fay's continued westward motion (regardless of the model shift this morning...you have to look at the actual weather), but I am not ready to remove the idea from the table.

The center of Fay is emerging back over water today...we will see how things shake out through the day. Keep checking back here on the blog...much more ahead....

7 comments:

Jlowe 6:01 PM  

once it get on land, what are the main threats. (after first day on land)

Matthew East 6:08 PM  

Spin-up tornadoes and lots of rain. If the system stalls out, rainfall amounts (wherever that occurs) could be quite significant. The spin-up tornado threat would mainly be to the east of the path of the center.

Jlowe 6:27 PM  

why do you call them spin up tornadoes? tornadoes are my biggest fear, can you help me please?

Matthew East 7:10 PM  

Spin-up or spin-off tornadoes...just what tornadoes that are caused by landfalling tropical systems are called.

I would not worry about it too much...we might not even be in the right area for them, and even if we are, they are normally very weak and very short-lived.

Jlowe 7:48 PM  

i've been really scared lately. constantly watching the radar. could you please pray for me when you get a chance?

(sorry if this is a repeat message, didn't think the last comment went through because of my internet.)

Matthew East 7:52 PM  

Sure....no problem. God bless....

Jlowe 7:57 PM  

same to you mr. east

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