Evening Fay Thoughts

Fay continues trucking off to the west tonight, and the eventual track is all really a matter of pinning down when the system begins to make a turn toward the northwest and then north.

I am getting pretty comfortable with the idea of a Florida landfall on the Gulf of Mexico side. I am not ready to rule out the Panhandle as a possibility, but most indications are for a Peninsula landfall. The longer Fay keeps moving due west, the more the Panhandle is a possibility. But I am leaning toward Peninsula. The chance of Fay scraping up the east side of Florida has about vanished....not completely, but just about.

Now, assuming Fay comes inland on the Gulf coast of Florida, there are two distinct possibilities from there. First option, the system keeps on a generally northerly heading, eventually tracking into northern Georgia and/or the western Carolinas. That would place the Carolinas in a very favorable position for some soaking rains....and boy could we use that.

The other possibility is Fay bends back to the northeast and tries to emerge back into the Atlantic. That would spell problems for the Carolina coast, but for us, we would be on the 'dry' side of the system, and therefore would see very little rain.

I note that the 0z models have essentially all come in with a general track that would give us some nice rains.....let's hope so.

One thing that looks likely at this point is that wherever Fay make it to by Tuesday or Wednesday....that is generally where the system will be for several more days....the steering currents look to die for several days. Now, if that is inland over the western Carolinas, we get lots and lots of rain. If it is off the coast of Georgia or the Carolinas, we could be looking at a storm maintaining of gaining strength.

Lots of questions still. For us to see some nice rains, the farther west the better at this point. We need the eventual track to be to our west to get some real drought relief.