Details still up in the air....

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look...



First off, I was a little surprised to see the modeling scatter so much with the 0z runs today. With the 12z and 18z runs yesterday, there seemed to be a lot of consolidating of the array of solutions. However, with the 0z runs, the models really diverged pretty widely in how each handled the interaction of our southern stream and northern stream disturbances. Even the European, which had been rock-solid consistent, differed somewhat from its previous runs.

This is the issue I have been laying out here on the blog for you all week. We are dealing with timing the interaction of two separate pieces of energy....one from the northern Plains....the other from the Pacific (now in Arizona this morning).

In terms of the modeling specifics, I don't know that any of the models really did a good job of capturing the strength of the AZ disturbance with the 0z cycle. Hopefully the AZ disturbance will be better sampled in the 12z cycle later today.

At the moment, I am completely discounting the NAM. It has essentially had 3 different looks its last 3 runs, so it is all over the place.

I am also largely discounting the 0z Canadian. It appears to weaken the AZ disturbance far too much as it enters the Plains states early tomorrow.

I have spent a ton of time comparing the most recent (0z) run of the Euro to its previous 12z run. There are really pretty similar overall. The one big difference is that the disturbance moving in from the north is a little less consolidated and strung out toward the Ohio Valley. The system still phases, but about 6-12 hours later than the previous runs. So, you still get a rapidly deepening low riding up the coast, but just later in the track than its previous runs. Therefore, the heaviest snow is all east of I-85.

As I have stated, the devil is in the details. If the northern branch feature is weaker or more stung out, this will not phase in time for a big snowstorm in the southeast.

Here is the general idea for this morning...

Snow still looks like a good bet around much of the region Christmas Day into Saturday night. I still like the chances of accumulating snow in a good number of spots. For the time being, I think the idea of the 12"+ snow dumps that had been indicated on some modeling seems even less likely now. That was always a long-shot. While it is still within the realm of possibility, odds seem to be favoring any potential for that shifting up toward New England if at all.

But, the general idea of some snow spreading into the region Christmas Day into Christmas night still seems good. At the moment, I envision a scenario where mainly light snow pulls in during the day Saturday, and then an area of moderate snow develops in from the southwest as the coastal low gets going. Where that moderate snow spread in will receive the highest snow totals.

Like there almost always is, there will be a strip of heavier snow totals, but pinpointing that location right now is impossible. Initial impression might be somewhere near or just east of I-85 to a little east of I-95, but again, that is VERY, VERY preliminary and certainly subject to change.

Like I said earlier, I think the 12z runs will begin to clear the picture a bit. Let's see what they hold....