Christmas week...and a Christmas storm system

Below is today's edition of the video....give it a look....



A couple of items before I get into what everybody wants to hear about....the Christmas storm possibilities.

A total lunar eclipse will occur during the overnight hours tonight.....greatest eclipse will be at 3:16am. Astronomically, North America is in about as good a position as we could be in to see the eclipse. In the Carolinas though, we will have some clouds rolling in, but hopefully enough breaks to allow it to be seen if you so choose.

This is Christmas week obviously, and the weather will remain pretty quiet for our region through Thursday. Most highs will be in the 40s with lows mainly in the 20s.

A weak system will move through tomorrow, but it will only being clouds to the Piedmont....maybe a little light rain in the mountains.

Christmas system...

Lots of people already buzzing about the potential for a storm system Friday into Saturday. The system definitely has piqued my interest.

Here is the disclaimer. Here on the blog, I kind of pull back the curtain and just lay out a lot of the behind the scenes stuff. I like to discuss possibilities with you and let you know some of the things I am looking at.

The operational GFS is the farthest north of all of the modeling. Even the GFS's own ensembles are farther south than the operational run. Taken verbatim, the operational GFS shows a little light snow north of I-40 as the system arrives by Friday night, but then a mainly rain event in our region.

All of the others models I can get my hands on this morning show a farther south and stronger solution. If you were to give me a blank map and a pencil, I could not draw up a better setup for Southeast snow than what the 0z European model shows. It was a thing of beauty for snow fans. Its ensembles were largely in agreement, and the Euro not only brought snow Christmas Day to the Carolinas, but all of the way up I-95 into the Northeast.

The UKMET and Canadian all also indicate at least some snow being involved at some point in the system for much of the interior Carolinas.

Hear this....the system is 5 days away, and there are two main things to watch with this system.

1. The latitude it takes west to east across the US.

2. The phasing between two different streams.

When this phasing occurs, and how much phasing occurs it at all, will play a huge role in the track of this system. It is within the realm of possibility that this system winds up trending north with time. There is also the chance of very little phasing and a weak system sliding out to sea.

Way too early for any confidence, but it sure is fun to watch.....