All eyes on the Christmas storm...
>> Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a watch.
A few areas saw a bit of snow last night, and in a few places, it was enough to lightly dust the ground. This was with a weak disturbance that is not exiting the region. A few sprinkles are possible tonight and tomorrow, but no big deal.
Christmas storm...
In terms of the modeling, the GFS remains the farthest north model of any of them. Let me say right off the bat.....it could be right. We are dealing with the phasing of two short waves....one diving down from the High Plains and the other that ejects from the Pacific and moves into the Deep South. If those phase early on in the game, the GFS could be correct. However, at this time, I continue to lean my forecast in the direction of the foreign models. It is worth noting that the GFS's own ensembles remain well south of the operation model....even up through the latest 6z run.
For snow lovers, the oz runs of the Canadian and European were a beautiful sight. Both painted a very snowy scenario Christmas Day from the Tennessee Valley right up through the Upstate and midlands of SC and most of NC.
The UKMET was even farther south, indicating any phasing between the disturbances would be much slower.
As I mentioned above, like I did yesterday, I am leaning my forecast heavily in the direction of the foreign models. For my public forecast on News 14, I am going with no precip on Christmas Eve with snow chances arriving Christmas Day.
What can go wrong?
Lots. If the two disturbance phase early, then a more northerly track would occur, meaning rain for most from the Carolinas southward.
If they phase too late or not at all, a very weak, suppressed system would result, meaning very light precip amounts.
However, if we thread the needle, like the Canadian and Euro have been showing, the result would be a once in a lifetime type of Christmas snow in the Southeast. But PLEASE keep in mind it will take near perfect timing to get these disturbances to interact at the right time for this to happen.
I am not going to commit to any specifics at this point. It is just too early, and too much can go wrong. But I will continue to go with the idea of some snow being possible around the region Christmas Day.
13 comments:
Hey Matt, if the ECMWF and Canadian models verify, would eastern and sound adjacent counties of NC also be involved with snow?
~Brandon
Yes...if that solution is correct, even coastal areas could end as a period of snow. But it would require a significant system.
Got a dusting here in Rockingham County.
Excellent Jeremy...thanks for the report.....you are not alone.
Great video matt. You did a great job at keeping all things on the table. That is the difference between you and other mets. Look forward to more thoughts!!!
Thanks!
Thanks Matt!
Question about the UKMET... if it verified, how much less snow would we receive than the Euro? Significantly less, or just marginally less? It seemed to have the low pressure too far south.
Good job on the blog, keep up the good work.
I don't like all that "perfect timing" discussion Matt!!:) Perfect timing events don't usually work out. Just in case I'm going to take your advice and temper my enthusiasm. However I can't get visions of 2004 out of my head. I would love to actually have a day where it snows all day, during the day, and it stays below freezing. Good stuff.
Thanks again for keeping us informed.
Brad
There's a cool discussion regarding the climate history at the end of the current GSP AFD. Check out how rare White Christmases are in the South:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off
UKMET would likely be significantly less, but it is all conjecture at this point.
Well, we aren't talking about cold chasing moisture timing thing...we are talking about phasing and timing therein. But timing that is still very tricky and subject to large errors.
White Christmases in the south are indeed a rarity!
Brandon, the 0z ECMWF has snow all the way to the OBX during the entire event. If the ECMWF is right, ENC may be the sweet spot.
Thanks Matthew, its nice that the models have remained consistent for a couple of days. I'd feel better if we could get the GFS on board, but I do like having the Euro there. Great video too, thanks!!
A Pennsylvania meteorologist on Accuweather Board says this this morning:
"Roughly follow I95 through NC. Everything West is all snow (with right along I95 having some precip issues) and East is heavy rain to heavy snow.
2" worth.
The state is just decimated. If this run would verify...I'm not positive of top NC snow storms but I imagine this would make the top 2. Just an historic Southern Mid Atlantic storm."
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