Christmas Eve...

>> Friday, December 24, 2010

First of all, I thank all of you for stopping by, reading, and watching the videos. It is incredibly humbling, and I appreciate you deeply.


I want to wish you and yours the warmest and merriest of Christmases. Take some time, enjoy family and friends, and reflect on all of our blessings.

In terms of our Christmas storm system, this one has been mentally exhausting. It is always fun to track these possibilities, but this one has been an especially difficult challenge. And still is frankly.

Most of the modeling is indicating some degree of phasing between the disturbances, but it is too late to really give a good snow to the western Carolinas (mountains will get their typical upslope though to help).

As it stands now, it looks like a band of mainly very light snow or flurries (maybe even sprinkles in a few spots the farther south you go) will try to move in as Christmas Day. unfolds. This would likely be in the 'token' or 'novelty' category.

As more of the upper level dynamics get involved by late Saturday afternoon and evening, there could possibly be a brief period of some moderate snow in parts of the region...maybe a near or east of I-85 over toward I-95. You will likely be able to watch the low pressure strengthening as it lifts up the coast later Saturday night, and to the northwest of that low, there will likely be a band of fairly decent snow for a while somewhere in the eastern half of the Carolinas. I still think even the coast, especially NC around the OBX, could end as a period of snow Sunday.

Elsewhere, I suppose anybody is fair game to pick up some snow showers Sunday with tremendous upper level dynamics overhead. I guess it is always possible if you happen to find yourself under a good enough snow shower to get the ground whitened for a bit.

Another quick disclaimer here...the quicker the system tries to phase, the farther west the area of steadier snow could make it Saturday evening through Sunday morning. But at the moment, most indications seem to be it will not happen in enough time to push that back into areas north and west of I-85.

So that's how it looks now. I will be out and about much of today, but I be checking in and take a look at things before tonight. If time allows, or if something overly interesting pops up, I will try to post an update.

Again, I thank you so much for stopping by. Merry Christmas, and God bless....

18 comments:

wgbjr 8:10 AM  

Merry Christmas to you and your family Matt! Thanks for all the effort you put into helping us have a better understanding of what is going on with the weather!

Hope we get some snow, but if not, there is always next time.

Anonymous 8:21 AM  

I hope you and your family have a merry christmas Matt! Thanks for all your hard work. I really enjoy reading your blog daily. Thanks again and Merry Christmas!

Anonymous 8:22 AM  

Have a very Merry Christmas Matt and thanks for all you do!

Anonymous 8:22 AM  

Merry Christmas!!!

Anonymous 8:58 AM  

Merry Christmas Matt! We really do appreciate your expertise!

Shannon 9:23 AM  

Merry CHRISTmas...It's not about the presents under the tree, it's about the man who was nailed to the tree!
Thanks Matt for all you do!

C. Goff 9:36 AM  

Merry Christmas, Matthew. Thank you for your mind exhausting efforts on our behalf :) Try to relax and enjoy Christmas with LB and the girls.

Robert Elvington 9:42 AM  

I'll take the 00z NAM, it dropped over .25 QPF for us.

Anonymous 10:30 AM  

matthew...am i seeing things or does it appear the 2 systems are trying to phase already? not trying to get anyone excited, but it seems like a better organized system than the models showed.

Robert Elvington 11:01 AM  

12z GFS is a complete 180 might be heading back to WED model runs. RDU points east get burried. Charlotte to Raleigh heavy snow as well. I want to see a couple more runs before I get emotionally attached again.

Anonymous 11:24 AM  

12gfs looking like a nw trend...hope it holds

sportguyshow 11:24 AM  

Hi Matthew i was wondering what is your take on the 12z gfs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72int072.gif

that show Charlotte getting 7 inches .Do you believe this GFS or not really

Anonymous 2:03 PM  

12z euro looking better too...

Anonymous 2:09 PM  

No snowfall prediction map this time around? :)

Anonymous 4:26 PM  

Merry Christmas Matt! 12z EURO looks good but the 12z GFS was thrown out by the HPC because of incorrect initialization and incorrect placement of features. However, each run is bringing more moisture.

Robert Elvington 4:36 PM  

A map right now would be dangerous. The trend now has weak phasing setting up. A strong low by the coast. The 18z nam has an 850 low just southeast of charlotte..which would dump a lot of qpf in the deformation axis(NW of the low).

Nobody wants a 2000 situation again, where the forecast was a complete bust.

The good thing at least is that the roads are already treated.

Map needs to wait until the 00z runs.

Anonymous 4:36 PM  

now a wwa?

Anonymous 6:56 PM  

Ok, this is ridiculous. Storm of the century forecasted by EURO then it drifts away, then it drifts back....oh wait, no it's bad data. Really? Ok I give up. Trying to see if I want to go skiing tomorrow but don't want to if we get a good thumping. Matt, we need you! What do you think? Put up the "MATT SIGNAL"!!! Sidenote, WBTV have gone back bullish with 2-4 inches. I'm liking the trends. Plus RUC is ripe, with no bad data...also seems closer to what's actually taking place. What do you think Matt....if you're around. I think I'm going insane. Sorry.

Brad

  © Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP