Christmas storm coming slowly into better focus

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a watch...



The GFS finally caved to the general track idea of the foreign modeling of our Christmas storm system. However, it is still much weaker overall with the system than the other modeling. See the video above and I will show you why I think it is likely incorrect.

The European modeling continues to steadfastly hold on to the idea of an historic snow storm across the Southeastern US Christmas Day and night, gradually moving up the eastern seaboard Sunday and Sunday night. At face value, places like Huntsville, Nashville, and Atlanta all see snow with this, and the amounts really begin to ramp up once you get into the Carolinas. GSP, CLT, and GSO do very well in terms of snow totals, and the amounts get mind-blowing as you head to Columbia up to RDU. Just like previous runs, the Euro even brings snow prior to the end of the system all of the way to the coast and Outer Banks.

The Canadian too is weaker with its 0z run. However, it too looks to weaken the southern stream system too much as it enters the Plains states.

The UKMET is fairly far south with the system as well.

I will say it is a caution flag to me that a lot of the other modeling is less extreme than the European.

So, what does all of this mean?

Again this morning, I continue to lean my forecast in the direction of the European model....just a less extreme version of it. The European model continues to show textbook examples of explosive phasing and the resultant bombing of the low pressure area. And I do think that is a possibility.

However, to me, that appears to be kind of the extreme end of the spectrum, while the 6z GFS is the extreme in the other direction.

My forecast will continue to reflect snow potential in much of the Carolinas beginning later Christmas Day into Christmas night....even much of Sunday if the Euro is correct.

It is still too early for accumulation estimates, but just know the potential is there for significant accumulations somewhere around the region.

Also, please keep in mind the cautions I put out yesterday are still in the forefront of my mind. This system depends entirely on the phasing of two pieces of energy....one from Canada and one from the Pacific. The degree to which these disturbances phase, and the speed with which they do so will determine the outcome of this system. These are details that it is impossible to have confidence in yet.