Fantastic weekend weather....big changes around Thanksgiving
>> Friday, November 19, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
We are back to full sunshine around our region today, and that will remain the case all weekend. Highs today around the Piedmont are in the mid to upper 50s to near 60. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will warm well up into the 60s.
Thanksgiving week...
The first few days of Thanksgiving week will be quite mild....upper 60s Monday for highs with some lower 70s possible Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday. However, that mild weather will then sharply change.
An arctic cold front will gradually settle closer to and eventually through the region later Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers are possible Wednesday, but it still looks like the best shower chances will be on Thanksgiving itself.
Much colder air will plunge in here by Black Friday....we might see some Piedmont highs shy of 50 Friday. The cold air only gets reinforced as we then go through Saturday and Sunday with highs and lows well below average.
How long will the cold last?
Good question. As of now, I think we will stay primarily below average for temps into early December, but there will be some modification at times.
Precip??
The GFS continues to pop up random snowstorms out there in fantasy land near the end of the cycle. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that somebody in our region will see some wintry precip during this upcoming colder pattern, however, I don't see anything specific for snow fans to get excited about as of now.
9 comments:
hi matthew,
just a quick comment/question for you. i keep hearing alot of talk from other mets about it not being cold this winter in the southeast and this may be the only shot of true arctic air we get. "above average" doesn't mean "warm" by any means does it? and i also recall many snow chances weve missed out on in recent years bc of "arctic air" being that it is very cold yet also very dry. maybe it is better for us snow fans to just have some plain old cold air around lol. other than that...first week of december sure does look cold doesn't it?
thanks,
anon
Ahh Thats a beautiful look at the end of the GFS run there Matthew if only, well keep us updated on that cold and moisture coming together sometime.
-Nic
Hey Matthew, I have always dreamed about being a broadcast meteorologist, but the job market has really discouraged me. Now, I'm leaning more towards pharmacy, but people are always sayin go for what you want! you'll find a job! I mean I really only like to follow weather when it's winter or there's tornadoes or there are hurricanes. I still would enjoy pharmacy as well though. Any advice?
Thanks!
Anon.... Yes, if you saw my winter forecast, I went with near or slightly below average for December with above average temps in Jan and Feb. You are right...above average doesn't mean 'warm' per se...just warmer than normal, or average. We can certainly still get snow in a month that averages above normal temps. You are right...when arctic air overwhelms the pattern, we are often just cold and dry. Having the temp battle ground nearby can be a good thing for snow fans. And I do not think this will be the only cold shot this winter.
-Nic...fun to look at, but as you would expect, vanished on the 6z. These specifics really mean nothing at that time range.
-Other anonymous...no doubt, the job market in broadcast meteorology is very tough...as are a lot of fields. I would say to go after whatever you would enjoy the most. If you could enjoy pharmacy, then you could always have weather for a hobby. I know a lot of weather nuts that follow the weather closely but have jobs that have nothing to do with weather. Broadcast meteorology is a pretty specialized field....however the field of meteorology has a lot of different options. You also obviously have an array of options in pharmacy as well.
Just evaluate things and see what you would enjoy doing. Whatever you decide, go after it with everything you've got....work hard, be the best you can. If you do, opportunities should eventually present themselves.
12z GFS Saturday looks overall warmer but keeps showing decent snowstorm around the fourth. I'm taking it with a grain of salt though......it is the GFS!
~Brandon
Yeah, a sizable snowstorm showed up on the 00z yesterday and now on the 12z GFS today. Both on Dec 5th. Hopefully the 18z picks it up here in 2 hours. All runs of the GFS have some type of a storm system rolling through the Carolinas around the 5th (some advertise a colder solution, some advertise a slightly warmer solution). We'll see. Purely fun right now.
Here's the 12z GFS (caution: it's at the end of the cycle (360 hours), so it's 16 days out... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_360m.gif
Hey Matthew! Cold snap not looking so cold anymore..u think it'll change back to the colder side or stay warm? Thanks
Canadian still keeps things cold....maybe GFS is just being crazy and goes back to cold.
~Brandon
Hey guys....been out of town over the weekend...will put up some fresh info tomorrow...
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