Rainy start to Monday...cool and drizzly

>> Monday, October 05, 2009

Taking a look at the rainy start to the work week, some temperature swings ahead, and maybe very chilly conditions early next week.

Posted by Matthew East at 5:41 AM

6 comments:

Anonymous 6:58 AM  

how do you make a forecast? what models do you use and mainly how do you get a temperature?(850mb, 500mb?) I'm tryin to look on the internet bu im not finding much? I want to try to start makin my on forecast and I get the precip part but not the surface temps. Please help me understand, Thanks!

Anonymous 6:59 AM  

Hey Matt,

Have you seen the 12z GFS for Monday the 12th (It's suggesting this at 7PM)?!?! It's spitting out moderate snow and sub freezing temps for that morning...Don't know if it's strictly hype, or is the GFS actually on to something? I know the cold air is coming, sooner or later, but snow is kind of uncommon for Charlotte in mid October!!

I'm taking this with a block of salt until closer to time...

Matthew East 8:11 AM  

One way to derive a temp forecast is MOS days. For example:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KCLT

I also like to look at 850mb temps to get an idea of high temps. That is more of a 'feel' think I have developed over the years. You can also use low level thicknesses to forecast temperatures. A combination of all of the above is the best method.

I have been watching for this potential cold shot for a long time. I seriously doubt anybody outside the mountains sees any snow any time soon, but the amount of cold air being shown invading the US on some modeling does get your attention.

Anonymous 8:42 PM  

O.K. say if you see the 12 degree celcius isobar through charlotte at 850mb on a dry night do u just convert that and get a temp or add and subtract depending on season, weather condition, or something else?

Matthew East 3:45 AM  

Well, it is a tad complex, but this is the most common 850mb temp method:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/278/

Anonymous 7:05 AM  

THANKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

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