Thursday Evening Post....

**There are some audio skips and distortions on this edition of the video...not sure why. I apologize.**

This will be my last post for several days. I am heading out of town to visit with family and friends, and I will be back in the saddle here at News 14 Wednesday, January 2. So, I don't anticipate any blog posts until then.

But, some bullet points for ya this evening....

• Rain develops in Friday and lingers into Friday night and Saturday morning
• More rain spreads in Sunday
• BIG plunge of arctic air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This will feature the coldest temps so far this season, and I think much of the Piedmont might not make it above freezing Wednesday afternoon, depending on downsloping winds. We should also be well down into the teens Thursday morning with the mountains in the single digits
  
• The mountains should see significant upslope snows out of this next week
• The cold only sticks around for a few days....much milder air returns by the weekend of January 5

Happy New Year, and God bless!

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Post and Video coming later....

I will have more info coming up on this weekend's wet weather and what I think will be a BIG blast of arctic air next week....check back later on...

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Quick Hit...

My focus today has been on my family with very little time spent on the weather. However, just wanted to put it out there that the system tonight into tomorrow morning has the look of a system that could give some spots a burst of wet snow of sleet for a period somewhere in the Carolinas. This one will all depend on dynamic cooling, in other wods, cooling from aloft, mainly due to heavy precipitation rates.

Interesting to watch. Don't be surprised if you see or here of some folks seeing a bit of snow tonight.

God bless....

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Merry Christmas!

God bless you...I wish you a warm, blessed, and meaningful Christmas.

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Sunday Evening Quick Hit....

Well, looks like it time to finally wave the white flag regarding any snow chances Tuesday into Tuesday night. Now I will say there could be some sort of light rain/sleet or wet snowflake mixture up in parts of the mountains Christmas, but I think sprinkles at best here in the Piedmont.

While the models are all finally indicating the low pressure will develop off of the Carolina coast Christmas, the airmass here in the Piedmont simply looks a bit too warm for anything wintry. So, eastern North Carolina will probably pick up some rain, and like I mentioned, some sprinkles or light rain are possible here in the Piedmont, but it just doesn't look like any flakes.

I am off the next couple of days, so I doubt I will have any new blog material until later in the week. Everyone have a blessed, safe, and merry Christmas.....

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Saturday Evening Post....

No video this evening, but I wanted to put up a quick post.

First of all, winds will get pretty gusty tomorrow as the cold front approaches and moves through. Winds will gust out of the south to 20 or 30mph in the Piedmont with even breezier conditions up in the mountains. We will see showers and maybe a storm or two sweep through tomorrow. A few severe wind events look possible, but the best severe weather threat will probably be just off to our north in the mid-Atlantic.

Christmas Eve will feature lots of sun and highs in the 50s here in the Piedmont.

And, I am just about ready to completely throw in the towel for any snow chance Christmas Day into Wednesday. The GFS does develop a nice coastal low pressure area, but most of the effects remain in eastern North Carolina. And, most modeling is indicating the atmosphere will be just a touch too warm for snow even if we do get some precip in here. So, while I still won't completely rule out a few flurries Tuesday or Tuesday night, the chances are dwindling.

Let's wait until we get Sunday's model data in before completely throwing in the towel....

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Friday Evening...

If you are having trouble viewing the video in the player above, try this direct link. Also, the images got a bit off center....I apologize for that.

The GFS has continued to trend toward the Euro model in the handling of the shortwaves next week. I still think the Euro is handling things better, but taken at face value, the difference is fairly negligible here in terms of sensible weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Again, at face value, we are looking at some clouds for Christmas and that is about it.

However, if you look at the 500mb chart (see the video) on the Euro, you would really think a big storm system would be blowing up. But, due to a couple of reasons, it is just not happening on most modeling. It would only take a little bit of adjustment in some weather features to get a more significant storm system. Is it likely? Probably not. But we really won't know with more confidence until Sunday when the shortwave gets over the upper air network of North America.

So, for those of you hoping for a few flakes for Christmas, don't give up, just know the odds are against you. I still have flurries going in the forecast. The chances of seeing anything significant are pretty slim, but you never know...

I also want to point out that we should see some showers Sunday as a cold front moves through. More instability has been creeping in here on recent model runs, so I have included a chance for a couple of storms Sunday afternoon as well.

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Suppression City...

If you are hoping for some chance of snow Christmas into Christmas night.....

The good news is that the latest GFS has come around to most other modeling in keeping the two shortwaves separate (see the video from yesterday evening).

The bad news is basically all modeling has the low pressure area suppressed too far to the south to give any meaningful precip to the Carolinas.

So, if you are hoping for snow, it is not time to give up, but a northwest trend in the modeling will have to develop over the weekend. Otherwise, we end up chilly and dry for Christmas.

We probably will not be able to know for sure until later Sunday.

**It looks like Youtube continues to have some issues with their embedded video service. So, if you cannot get the video to render in the post below, you can view it by clicking HERE.

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Thursday Evening Video

By the way, the 18z GFS has come in, and I still think it is lost next week. We will see. Scroll down to the post below to read my thoughts on the modeling today.

Below the video I will include the text from my News 14 Carolina web discussion this evening.

If the video below is not rendering properly, you can click here to view the video.



We have three storm systems that will affect the region through the next seven days. Let's take them one at a time....

Storm system #1:
An area of low pressure is moving from Alabama to off of the Georgia coast tonight. That low pressure will spread some mainly light rain into the Carolinas tonight and last into Friday morning. Rain fall amounts will be pretty light.

We will be left with a wedge in place Friday and Saturday, meaning lots of clouds and some occasional drizzle. It will be chilly with highs only in the 40s. Then, we will watch for the arrival of....

Storm system #2:
An area of low pressure will cut up to the Great Lakes region this weekend, pulling a cold front through here Sunday. I expect a pretty good chance for some showers as the front swing through Sunday, but again, the rain will likely not be overly heavy.

Christmas Eve looks like a quiet day with lots of sun and highs in the 50s. Then comes...

Storm system #3:
This one is tricky. The computer models are all over the place with this one, indicating the Carolinas could see anything from a chilly, dry day to some wintry precip for Christmas Day. As it stands now, I like the idea of an area of low pressure riding up close to the Carolina coastline Christmas Day into Christmas night. If indeed that does occur, we could see some areas of light snow or snow flurries.

Let me stress this point. Nothing at all is set in stone, and I am sure this forecast will have to be adjusted with time. Stay tuned...

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2:45pm Thursday...

I am putting together the afternoon forecast package as we speak, but I wanted to put up a quick post.

Modeling continues to be all over the place with the handling of the Christmas into Wednesday storm system. In short, I think the 12z GFS is horribly mishandling the shortwaves...probably keying on the wrong shortwave, in fact. I think the European has the right general ideas with this system, but you just simply can't take any specifics to heart in this type of pattern in that time frame.

The latest Canadian model has come in and is siding more with the European ideas.

In short, if you are hoping for some sort of wintry weather in the Carolinas Christmas or Christmas night, hope is still alive. Many things have to line up perfectly for us to see some snow, as you all know. What I am saying is at this point, I think we still have a chance that that occurs, but how big a chance, I don't know yet.

I will compose a video and post it later this evening. Keep checking back!

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Weather Video

Short on time today, but in general, model madness rules for Christmas. 6z GFS showed a major snowstorm for the western Carolinas, the 12z shows rain, the 0z European model showed snow Christmas night, GFS ensembles show no storm at all! 12z European is not in yet. I went with a chilly, wet day in my formal forecast today, but anything is possible. Watch the video for more specifics...

**Edit to add the 12z European shows a nice snow for much of North Carolina with the Christmas storm. Lots will change, but it sure is interesting to look at.**

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Sunday Evening...

It was indeed windy today here in the Piedmont, but it was even more so up in the mountains. It looks like the summit of Grandfather Mountain recorded a peak gust of 95mph!

I have also enjoyed looking at the High Country Webcams this afternoon and seeing the snow fall.

Cold the next few nights and only in the 40s for highs again tomorrow. I will think a few backyards might hit the upper teens Tuesday morning.

I also note the 12z European model is a little farther south and colder with our Thursday-Friday storm system....it actually indicates some ice potential in North Carolina taken at face value. The details with this system will not be clear for a couple of days. The ice is probably a long-shot, but we will keep watching.

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Friday Evening...

Big system approaching for the weekend. We will have a classic CAD (cold air damming) setup later tonight through Saturday night.

Clouds will roll in tonight and rain will develop in as Saturday unfolds. It is a close call, but I think most of the Charlotte and Triad viewing area will only see a cold rain...no wintry weather issues. However, the northwest Piedmont and foothills could very well see a period of freezing rain Saturday afternoon and evening. In the Triad viewing area, Surry county is under a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow afternoon and evening. In the northwest Piedmont and foothills, some icing could occur, mainly on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. Some slick spots on bridges and overpasses will be possible as well.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest weather information.

I am still hopeful for some good rain amounts out of this system. With systems like these, there is always an area that receives less rain than surrounding areas, but I think at least 0.5" and possibly over 1" of rain are possible with the heaviest rain falling Saturday evening.

Sunday will be very windy with wind gusts to 40 or 50mph possible as arctic air arrives. And I still think some teens are possible Tuesday morning. Brrr.....

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Thursday Evening Bullet-Points...

• Another record-breaking day today....77 in Charlotte and 73 in the Triad.
• Weekend system still looks like rain for much of the Carolinas outside of the mountains. I will say though that the NAM is very impressive with the cold air damming (CAD) and actually continues to indicate the chance for some freezing rain in the foothills and into parts of the Triad region. I think that model is still trying to get a handle on this system, but it is something I am keeping in the back of my head.
  
• Sunday will be very windy. Highs will be in the 40s in many Piedmont locations, and I bet we have some wind gusts to 40 or 50mph.
  
• I am still trying to get a good idea of snow accumulations up in the mountains. There will be some snow, I just don't know how much yet. I provide some weather content for SkiNC and SkiSoutheast, but I am not ready to pull the trigger on snow totals yet. Still a lot of variables in play with this system.
• Much of next week will be chilly. Look for low to mid 20s Monday and Tuesday morning. I wouldn't be shocked if there were a couple of teens Tuesday morning.
  
• The period from December 20 through December 25 looks active. One storm system will move through around next Friday with another one around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. There will be some cold air around the eastern U.S., so we shall see.....
  

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Weekend system...

Almost all modeling is now farther north with the track of the low pressure area this weekend, and therefore, they show the atmosphere being warmer here than in previous runs. At face value, most modeling is simply indicating some rain for us later Saturday and Saturday night.

I say most, because the NAM continues to be much slower with the track of the low pressure area. Because of the slower track of the low, it allows the cold air damming (CAD) to become better established prior to the precip moving in Saturday night. So, it appears the NAM still leaves the door slightly cracked to the possibility of something wintry outside of the mountains in the Carolinas.

My feeling remains the same as yesterday. This is probably an all-rain system for most of the Carolinas. However, a lot of variables remain in play and will not be resolved for a couple of more days. So, for winter weather fans....all hope is not completely lost, but it doesn't look promising right now.

On another note, the website I had been using to host my videos has removed their option for free video hosting, so I have gone over to Youtube....Let me know if you have any problems. Today's video mainly deals with the weekend storm system.

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Weekend storm system...

I mentioned Friday in this space the possibility for something "interesting" brewing this weekend in the Carolinas. Since that time, various runs of various models have shown this scenario, indicating various types of winter weather threats to North Carolina.

At this point, I think the most likely scenario is a mostly rain one for much of the state outside of the mountains. However, much could change, and my interest remains high. Stay tuned...

I will be back in the weather office tomorrow with more info.

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Friday Post...

Thank you all very much for your kind words!

I still don't really know what was wrong with me. For several days, I had bouts of crippling upper abdominal pain. I am not kidding...this was some of the worst pain I have ever felt....completely debilitating. It was really at its worst Sunday and Monday, and I finally went to the doctor Monday afternoon. After no relief from a 'GI cocktail' in the doctor's office, I was scheduled for an abdominal ultrasound and glucose testing this week. Thus far, the results are not in from those tests.

But, I am happy to report that I have felt much better the past couple of days. So, hopefully whatever the problem was has passed. Thanks again for your kindness....it means a lot!

In terms of the weather, after a big shot of cold weather the past few days, we will see a big moderating trend over the next several days. By Monday, highs should soar into the 70s.

It now appears we will see a brief wedge set up Tuesday, knocking us back into the 60s. But we will be back into the 70s by Wednesday before a cold front moves through Thursday.

I will say that there have been some "interesting" possibilities on some of the models next weekend. That is still too far out for any specifics though....

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Wednesday Quick Hit....

I am sorry for the lack of posts and videos lately. I have been under the weather for much of the past week, and I am still in the process of undergoing a battery of tests this week to find out the problem.

Hopefully, as the week unfolds I will get back up to full speed. But until then, posts will be lacking.

I will note that some flurries flew in parts of the Triad and Charlotte viewing regions this morning. And some accumulating snow fell in the North Carolina mountains. Nice to see....

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Some quick Wednesday bullet points...

• Nice afternoon weather today with highs in the lower 60s and lots of sun.
• Moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front tonight and tomorrow morning...that means lots of clouds and maybe some drizzle.
• Cold front passes through by midday Thursday.....that means sunshine returns tomorrow afternoon.
• Lots of sun with highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday.
  
• Arctic cold front approaches Sunday. Out ahead of it, a few showers will be possible during the day Sunday, with better chances for a passing showers Sunday night.
• The coldest air so far this season probably pours in here Monday, but due to downsloping winds, we won't begin to feel the brunt of it until Monday night and Tuesday.
• I am still massaging the numbers in my head, but I fully anticipate 40s for highs by Tuesday. We will see if we can get a night with a clear sky and calm winds in order to see a really cold night.
  

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Some Quick Notes...

• Some showers will spread in overnight tonight. Then, I expect some scattered showers and possibly a few storms for our Thanksgiving.
• A couple of storms could be locally strong to severe. We will watch it.
• Much colder weather flows into the region Thanksgiving night. Snow showers will kick in up in the mountains Thursday night into Friday. Accumulations will generally be fairly light. In the Piedmont, highs will struggle to make it out of the 40s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
• Dry Friday and most of Saturday before more rain chances arrive Saturday night into Sunday. That rain could begin as a little sleet Saturday night, but that will not be a big deal.
• Yet another system will move through Monday and Monday night, bringing us shower and thunderstorm chances.

Everyone have a great Thanksgiving! God bless....

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Wednesday Post and Video

Today is the busiest travel day of the year, so I wanted to get a quick update online for you this morning. A storm system will move through the eastern U.S. over the next 36 hours causing a wide array of weather.

Showers and storms will break out in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Deep South this afternoon and push eastward into the southern Appalachians tonight. Up in the colder part of the storm system, snow will break out in parts of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, northern Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan today and tonight. The heaviest snow will probably fall roughly from Chicago to Detroit this evening and tonight. So, if your travel plans take you to the states mentioned above, you can expect some travel delays.

Around here, we will see some showers and storms tomorrow as the cold front sweeps through. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially tomorrow afternoon from roughly I-85 eastward.

Behind the front, it gets much colder around here with highs probably only in the 40s in many spots Friday through Sunday.

The details are still unclear, but another storm system will develop and bring some rain back in here later Saturday into Sunday. If the precip gets in here early enough Saturday, it could begin as a bit of sleet, but that will not be a big deal. Finally, another storm system pulls through later Monday and Monday night bringing the chance for rain and storms. Active weather ahead....

Please note I had some software issues with composing the video this morning, so it will probably be a little difficult to see. I apologize for that.

Everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving, and safe travels if you are doing so!

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Thanksgiving Week...

Lots of folks will be doing some traveling as this week unfolds, and there will likely be a pretty significant storm system affecting the country mid-week.

As it stands now, it looks like an area of low pressure will form along a frontal boundary Wednesday evening near the Ozarks. From there, the low will lift northeast and probably spread some decent snows in parts of the Plains and Midwest.

For our area, we stay warm and dry through Wednesday with highs in the 70s and lots of sun. The cold front will swing through here Thanksgiving Day, and it is looking more and more likely that some thunderstorms could be involved in addition to some shower chances. We will watch that.

Behind the front, cooler weather returns Friday through the rest of the holiday weekend. It appears a weak system could form on the frontal boundary that will be off to our south later in the weekend. That could spread a little rain in here next weekend, but that system does not look like a major one right now.

Be sure and check out the video...I take you through each day this holiday week and discuss possible travel disruptions.

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Quiet for a while...

There will not be a video this evening. I have had lots of things going on today, and time has simply not allowed me to put a new video together. I should have a new one posted sometime later in the weekend.

It was a chilly day today with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s here in the Piedmont. Tonight will be cold with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

A clipper system will swing by off to our north this weekend, but it will only bring an increase in clouds to the Carolinas. We will stay dry through Wednesday, then our next cold front will bring us some rain chances Thanksgiving into Thursday night. Behind that front, we cool down for Friday and next weekend.

The European model has finally come around to the faster solution as anticipated (see the post below). So, I have pretty good confidence in the cold frontal passage right around Thanksgiving. However, I do not have much confidence in exactly what happens during the weekend following Thanksgiving.

And, let me take a second and mention that I have teamed up with SkiNC and SkiSoutheast to provide them with weather information as we roll through this ski season. Those folks do an excellent job at keeping you up to date with the latest news, notes, and ski conditions in the eastern U.S., and I am proud to be able to provide weather information for all of you ski lovers out there.

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Change Back to Colder Weather...

After a couple of mild weather days, we have seen a drastic turn back to colder weather here in the Carolinas. As the cold air advected in today, we had very windy conditions with wind gusts over 30mph in the Piedmont and over 50mph up in the mountains.

Upslope snows have kicked in in the mountains as expected, and those northwest facing areas near the Tennessee border could pick up 1-3" before all is said and done. Although, the snow is very dry and the wind is still blowing, so the accumulation has not been very efficient.

We will have a chilly Friday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s in spite of lots of sunshine. It will also be rather breezy again Friday afternoon, but the wind will not be as significant as what we saw today.

I get into more details in the video, but we will get pretty mild mid-week with highs well up into the 60s...maybe even some lower 70s Wednesday afternoon. Then, my feeling is a cold front swing through late Thanksgiving or Friday, bringing us some rain followed by much chillier air the weekend following Thanksgiving.

I will note the European model continues to be much slower the the progression of the trough next week, but I do not think that solution is the right one right now. That is a classic European model error...hanging too much energy back in the Southwest.

I also want to mention how fantastic the fall foliage has been the past several days here in the Piedmont. Honestly, this is some of the best color I have seen around here in a long time. Funny how nature works...you would think the color show would not be very good with the serious drought conditions, but that is not the case at all. The color is great....just later than usual.

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Wednesday Post and Video

I will paste my discussion from the News 14 Carolina website below, but a few additional notes first.

With next week being Thanksgiving week, there will obviously be a lot of folks traveling. It appears there will be a significant storm system develop over the nation's interior mid-week. The computer models are all over the place with this one, and frankly, I don't really think any of the runs I have seen this morning are handling that system correctly.

For our region, we will probably see the system affect us around Thursday or Friday with some rain and maybe some thunderstorms, then we probably turn quite chilly behind the system for the weekend after Thanksgiving. However, I reserve the right to amend those ideas...that is just the way I am leaning right now.

Below is my discussion from the News 14 Carolina site.

A sharp cold front is heading our way, and that front will usher in much cooler weather into the region tomorrow. However, ahead of that front, we are seeing some nice Wednesday weather with a partly cloudy sky and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

If you have outdoor plans this evening, the weather should be fine. However, we will see some showers and storms spreading into the area after midnight tonight ahead of that cold front. This is not a classic setup for severe weather, but one or two strong or severe storms will be possible late tonight into early Thursday. In terms of rainfall amounts, I am looking for most totals to be between 0.10" and 0.50"...but if we do have some thunderstorms involved, some spots could see some locally heavier amounts.

Thursday will be blustery and much cooler with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50s much of the day. The showers and storms will end by mid-morning, and some clearing will kick in by afternoon. It will be breezy though with some northwesterly wind gusts in excess of 25mph possible.

Chilly and quiet weather will then settle into the Carolinas for Friday and Saturday. Highs will mainly be in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s. Up in the mountains, some upslope snow will likely kick in later tomorrow into early Friday.

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Huge win....

Mississippi State did in fact beat Alabama 17-12 yesterday in Starkville. The game was televised by Lincoln Financial Sports, but locally we got their coverage of the Tennessee-Arkansas game. So, I had to watch the game over the internet. But, I was screaming and yelling just the same!

What a hard-fought game by both teams. It was a classic defensive SEC battle...a type of game I really enjoy watching. And, of course, the result makes it that much more enjoyable!

Go Bulldogs!

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Weather Video

The latest edition of the video is up above.

Big game tomorrow. Mississippi State hosts Alabama in a big SEC West match-up. Mississippi State beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last season, so you know Alabama will have revenge on the mind. Alabama is coming off a deflating defeat to LSU last week...a game they could (and probably should) have won. Mississippi State is coming off of a bye. With 1 more win, MSU will be bowl-eligible.

For me personally, I grew up a huge Alabama fan. My family had season tickets, and I remember every Saturday either heading to Tuscaloosa, heading to Legion Field, or heading to the TV/radio to watch the Tide. I can still feel the nervousness in my stomach I felt each year before the Alabama-Auburn game. I screamed my head off as Alabama beat Miami in the '93 Sugar Bowl to become National Champions. There was no bigger Alabama fan than I.

Then, I began my college career at MSU. I fell in love with State, and my allegiance was forever changed in a heated MSU-Alabama game in Tuscaloosa. At that point, I realized I was completely a Bulldog...and I remain a Bulldog.

So, I will be anxiously watching the game as it unfolds tomorrow.

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Weather Video

Well, I am happy to report that I am back to about 85% or 90% after battling this virus for almost four days. Less fevers and chills make for a happier weatherguy.

The weather will remain cool through the weekend, but then we see a substantial warm-up early next work week. In fact, I think we will see some 70s for highs again by Tuesday afternoon.

The details remain sketchy, but it looks like our next significant rain chance will be Wednesday into Thursday with a cool-down for the end of the week. I am working on my ideas for the Thanksgiving holiday week as we speak.

Watch the video...I get into a lot more specifics about next week and beyond....

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Wednesday Weather Video

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Sunday Evening...

Had a good time with all of the family in town for my daughter's birthday. It was a lot of fun.

Unfortunately, I have come down with the family virus we have been passing around....fever, sore throat, chills......fun stuff. So, no video tonight as I am just trying to make it through my shift today. I am off Monday and Tuesday, so that is good to hopefully recover.

Cold shot Wednesday and Thursday....50s for highs....maybe upper 20s Thursday morning. Weather stays quiet through next weekend.....

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Friday Weather Video

Noel strengthened to hurricane status Thursday evening. I discuss Noel a pretty good bit in the weather video. I also take another look at the cold weather coming next week.

There will not be any new weather videos from me for the next couple of days. We have lots of family in town while I am off to celebrate my daughter's birthday.

Everyone have a wonderful weekend!

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Thursday Afternoon Weather Video

I was able to cut a video this afternoon. In the video, I take a good look at comparing the GFS vs. the European model with its handling of the eastern U.S. trough next week. In short, I am leaning more with the European model than the GFS...GFS still looks lost toward the end of the week.

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Brrr

The last 2 runs of the European model have indeed come completely to the idea of a quite cold week around here next week. In fact, the 0z Euro run today is quite impressive with the depth of the trough it puts in the eastern U.S. later next week. If you have been watching the videos over the past week or so, you know this is an idea I have been keying on.

I will post a short video after I get in to work this afternoon and show you some of the maps I am talking about.

Until then....enjoy the day!

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Wednesday Weather Video...

The video is shorter than usual today...a lot of other things going on today. In short...afternoons are mild today and tomorrow, then turning colder again Friday. By the way, the 12z GFS looks completely lost next week to me. I cover that a bit in the video....

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Monday Weather Video

Noel had a nice flare-up of convection Sunday evening, and the system continues to get better organized. Remember, you can get a full tropical update at :21 and :51 past every hour on News 14 Carolina.

We are headed for our first widespread frost Tuesday morning as lows will likely settle into the low to mid 30s. I think some Piedmont locations could see a freeze as well. Highs will remain in the 60s the next couple of days. A couple of troughs will swing through over the next seven days, but at the moment none look strong enough to produce rain.

I have my regularly-scheduled off days Monday and Tuesday of this week, so there might not be a new video posted until Wednesday. However, if something really grabs my attention, I will cut a new one. Keep checking back....and thanks for stopping by!

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Noel

Tropical Storm Noel has formed down in the northern Caribbean Sea. I will have a new video cut late this evening and posted...check in in the morning if you don't want to stay up.

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Weekend Weather Video

After several days of much-needed rain, we are seeing the return of sunshine to the Carolinas today. Along with that sun comes warmer high temperatures today with readings in the low to mid 70s.

The weather will stay pretty quiet through the next 5-7 days. A shot of cooler air arrives in time for Sunday with highs backing down into the upper 60s. In fact, it looks like every day next week will feature highs in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday will start of rather chilly with lows near 40 Monday morning and mid to upper 30s for Tuesday morning. We will continue to see lots of sun through most of the week.

Fall Foliage

The fall foliage season is running on a later than usual schedule this year, and there is still lots of great color to enjoy up in the North Carolina mountains. In fact, the color is just now reaching peak around the 3000' elevation. The weather up in the mountains will be great through the weekend and into much of next week with cool weather and lots of sunshine.

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Friday Weather Video

Please continue to let me know any problems you are having viewing the video. Below is the discussion I wrote on the Charlotte weather portion News 14 Carolina site.

The deep feed of tropical moisture continue to get pulled up into the Carolinas this afternoon. The result is lots of rain continuing around the area through the afternoon hours. Some heavy amounts of rain are piling up, and some flash flooding issues could arise, mainly over the eastern half of the viewing area. Temperatures will remain cool and struggle to reach the 60 degree mark in most spots.

Tonight, the axis of rain will slowly push eastward and out of most of the area. Some breaks in the clouds will likely filter in with lows in the mid 50s.

Expect a clearing sky Saturday as dry weather slowly returns to the Carolinas. Extreme eastern sections of the viewing area could see a lingering shower, but I think most of us will see dry conditions Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

The weather looks quiet and uneventful for much of next week. Highs will drop back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday, and lows will be near 40 Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Some communities could certainly dip into the upper 30s on one or both of those mornings. All days will feature lots of sun.

Another cold front will likely drop through here Thursday, cooling us down again by next Friday and next weekend.

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Thursday Evening Video

Well, it is a balancing act I am trying to figure out.....video quality versus performance. I think you will find the video quality a little better in this edition, but there are some skips in the audio for some reason. I will continue to experiment. Thanks for stopping by! Please continue to let me know your thoughts...

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Thursday Afternoon Post

First of all, I am still working on the formatting and what-not of the weather videos. So, please give them a watch and let me know any problems you are having. I cut a new video later this evening.

Below are some of the pictures I took up in the North Carolina mountains earlier this week. It was cloudy with occasional light rain, so I wasn't able to get nearly as many shots of the color as I would have liked. However, there is something neat to me about being in the mountains when the weather is like that.

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Thursday Morning Video

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Wednesday Evening Video

For a while I have wanted to do some sort of weather video where I could more easily discuss with you some of the things I am looking at in the near term and at times in the long term. So, here is the result as of now....the first edition of East's Weather Video.

Please let me know your thoughts and opinions. And please let me know any problems you might have viewing the video. This is really the first trial run of all of the software involved.

In future videos, I will probably spend more time talking about overall pattern issues, and I will probably get much more in-depth, meteorologically speaking, with what is going on with our weather. Like I said...this edition is sort of just a trial run.

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Wednesday Morning Quick Hit...

All systems look like a 'go' for periods of rain and possibly some storms today. The atmosphere is very moist, and with a big upper air low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, we should have plenty of lift in the atmosphere to get rain and storms. Rain amounts remain in question, but the potential certainly looks high for some soaking rains across much of the Carolinas.

I walked outside around midnight last night, and you could just see the low level jet racing overhead. Anytime it is in the mid 70s at midnight in late October in North Carolina, you know something unusual is going on. But in this case, we will certainly take it.

A few strong to severe storms could occur today, and as I am typing this, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect over in Wake, Franklin, and Granville counties.

I am in the evening shift for the Triad today. I will blog at you later. I am working on something new I will be adding to the blog....lots of issues to try and work out, but hopefully I can get that up and running soon.....

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Tuesday Morning...

Well, it looks like almost all modeling is now going with a rather wet scenario for us the next several days. Good!

Rain amounts are still in question, but the chances for some rain at times the next few days look very promising.

Also of note, it looks like we could see some type of wedging scenario in place by Thursday. If that occurs, many locations could remain in the 50s all day.

I had a chance to head up to the mountains yesterday. The cloud base was at about 3500 feet most of the day....you got above that elevation, and you just mainly saw clouds. However, there was some really nice color to be seen, and I will post a couple of pictures I took on the blog sometime tomorrow.

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Uncertainty....

Well, the computer models continue to flip-flop with their handling over the big trough now over the Rockies. Let me give you an example. Below will be a frame from the 12z GFS, the 12z European, and the 12z Canadian model runs today. The valid time is 8am Wednesday morning...



The GFS, which for several runs in a row had developed the closed upper air low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, decided on its 12z run today to develop the low MUCH farther west. So, instead of a couple of days of soaking rains, we end up with a primarily dry forecast this week.

While a flip in a run of the GFS normally wouldn't concern me, it does this time. The 12z run lines up very well with its ensembles from 12z as well, and that is concerning for our rain chances.

On the other hand, the 12z European has remain virtually unchanged from its previous runs with the closed upper air low again over the Lower Mississippi Valley, and therefore some nice rains for the Carolinas. The 12z Canadian is also in the Lower Mississippi Valley camp.

With this evening's forecast package, I have kept periods of rain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. I am not big with flip-flopping my forecasts, and since this is the idea I have been going with, I will stay the course for now. But just keep in mind that unfortunately, the forecast might have to be amended.

By the way, next weekend looks dry with temperatures close to average for the time of year.

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Friday Early Evening..

Many spots saw some much-needed rain late last night and this morning. However, the tap has been for the most part shut off since that point in time. However, the cold front is crossing the mountains as I type this and there is a line of showers and storms right ahead of that front. This evening will feature the chance for a few showers or storms before the front sweeps through and ends any rain chances.

The weekend will be fantastic with highs in the 70s and lows Sunday morning in the 40s. Fall foliage is looking nice up in the mountains, and the folks up at Grandfather Mountain report that foliage above 3700' is at its peak now. So, check out those leaves this weekend...the weather will be wonderful...highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Model madness continues next week with most modeling now going to the cut-off low scenario. With that in mind, I have now kept Monday dry in the forecast and brought in lots of clouds with an occasional shower chance beginning Tuesday or Wednesday and lasting through at least Friday. We shall see....

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Thursday Evening Update...

Severe weather remains a big concern tonight from the Great Lakes all of the way down into Mississippi and Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes remain possible in that region.

For North Carolina, showers will be possible as the night unfolds, and there could be a rumble of thunder or two as well.

Our best shot of showers and storms probably comes Friday ahead of the actual cold front. A few storms could be locally strong to severe Friday afternoon with damaging winds being the primary concern. In terms of rain amounts, I think 0.5" to 1" is a good estimate, although I have some concerns about the Gulf of Mexico inflow into the Carolinas getting cut off.

I think the pattern evolution next week is getting a little clearer. Today's 12z run of the Euro has come around to recent GFS solutions on keeping a full latitude trough in tact as it moves through the eastern U.S. Previous Euro runs has split a piece of the trough off into a closed upper air low over the southern Rockies or Plains states.

If the trough stays full latitude, then we will probably see some showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday and then turn much chillier for the second half of next week.

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Thursday Afternoon Check-In

The atmosphere off to our west from the Great Lakes all of the way down to the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys is primed for severe weather problems this afternoon and this evening. A large 'moderate' risk of severe weather exists over much of that region. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main concerns there.

Notice on the satellite imagery below the cumulus clouds popping up over much of that region. There has been lots of sunshine there this afternoon, and we will probably see some very healthy storms developing soon.***Images above will not update...this is the view from early afternoon.**


For our area, the best opportunity for rain and storms will be late tonight through tomorrow. Depending on how things unfold to our west, we could see some locally strong to severe storms tomorrow, and we will watch it closely. Stay tuned!

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Dry and comfy

The drought rages on, and we all need to do whatever we can to continue to conserve water. This is about as bad of a drought as has ever been recorded around here, and there is no relief in sight over the next week. Below are a few pictures of the stream bed behind my house. Notice something is missing....the stream!



If we aren't going to get the much-needed rainfall, we might as well have some great weather to enjoy. The weekend weather will be fantastic with afternoon highs in the 70s and morning lows well down into the 40s.

A weakening storm system will swing through here Tuesday and Wednesday, but the chances for substantial rain with that one look very small. There continue to be some indications that a major storm system will swing through here NEXT weekend (October 21 and 22), but details are sketchy at best in the time frame.

Fall colors are popping in the mountains, and the viewing weather will be excellent this weekend. With this current cold shot of weather in the mountains, the color should be really nice next week and next weekend. By the way, the summit of Grandfather Mountain has remained in the 30s all day today...second day in a row!

And finally, I am catching an early flight in the morning to head down to watch Mississippi State take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Starkville tomorrow afternoon. I will get a chance to see some good friends of mine and some family, and that will be fun. The down side is that I am traveling alone...the family will stay here. This is tough on Daddy.....I will miss them a bunch.

I doubt I will have an opportunity to post a blog post before next Wednesday. Until then, enjoy the weekend and the weather!

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Crisp Morning...

Many spots up in the mountains were down into the 30s this morning. In fact, the summit of Grandfather Mountain made it down to 29 degrees!

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Changes Coming...

I had a good weekend (Monday's and Tuesday's are my weekend) spending some time with my family. There is never a dull moment in the East household. Jayden is in pre-school and Grace is 2 1/2....both are always wanting to learn something. Julianna is 11 months old, she is walking, and she is very curious and always exploring. I love every minute of it and wouldn't trade any if it for the world.

I took a look at the radar yesterday afternoon and noticed the showers and storms seemed to be holding together very well in the mountains...I thought, "Maybe it can hold together enough for some rain in our viewing area." So, off we went yesterday evening to Jayden's soccer practice. As we get to the end of practice, the dark clouds continue to build off to the west. I get the kids all huddled around for our post-practice prayer, and I feel the breeze really picking up. When the prayer is finished, one of the parents says lightning had just flashed behind me. I had to pull out my pocket dictionary to remember what lightning was.

So, off everyone hurriedly goes to their various vehicles. And then, sure enough....rain began to fall. Actual rain. It was nice to see. Unfortunately, not nearly enough to help with the drought, but it just seems to refresh the soul a bit to even see rain considering the tremendous drought we are in. When we got home, the kids asked if they could go play in the rain. We thought about it, and said 'why not?' So, all of us went out in the rain and just enjoyed it for a little while. Poor kids....they were jumping in 'puddles' that were about the width of their feet. But, they had fun, and that is what matters.

We have one more really warm day today before big changes take place. A nice shot of Canadian air will surge in here beginning tonight and will be with us all weekend. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lows way down into the 40s beginning Friday morning. I would not be surprised if some communities didn't make it out of the 60s Friday afternoon. No complaints from me!!

Fall foliage continues to begin up in the mountains, and once the cooler temperatures settle in there, the colors should look fantastic by next week at this time.

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Sunday Evening Check In...

Well, good weekend of football....Mississippi State beat UAB to head to 4-2. Next up, a big match-up in Starkville with Tennessee.

The Panthers pulled one out in New Orleans in a hard-fought, rather sloppy game. But, a win is a win, so no complaints.

Although I normally have a strict policy about this, I will break it tonight. I will complain about the weather. It will be hot the next few days, and I am just sick of hot weather. Now, I am thankful for each day, but wow, the heat just wears on you after a while. Good news is Friday through next weekend will be wonderful with 70s for highs and 40s for low and lots of sun. Bad news is rain chances look very small for the next week or so.

Fall foliage is kicking into gear up in the mountains, but the onset of the color change is later this year due to all of the warm weather. Most trees are still green, but there is some good color to be seen around Grandfather Mountain. After the shot of cool weather at the end of this week, the fall foliage should really get cranking.

Everyone have a great week!

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Back...

After having several days off, I am really just getting back into the flow of things today. Again, I am sorry for the lack of recent posts.

Fall foliage is beginning to show itself up in the North Carolina mountains. Above is a nice photo from the folks at Grandfather Mountain.

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Hey!

I know...long time....no post. Sorry about that. I have had an outside-of-work project that has taken up essentially all of my free time this week.

I am really looking forward to the weather this weekend. Autumn weather will be nice. We have been so warm for most of September that I feel like we have lost touch with the average temperatures for this time of year. Here is the average high and low for Greensboro and Charlotte today...

Greensboro - 76/56
Charlotte - 79/59

Doesn't that sound really cool? We have been so warm that the average temperatures seem like a cool wave. So, actually, upper 70s to around 80 for highs this weekend will actually be near to a bit above average...although lows will dip below average.

Tropics are bubbling. Lorenzo will make landfall in Mexico tonight and I think Karen certainly bears watching for possible U.S. impacts down the road. Don't write this one off just yet. Also, some modeling has been hinting at some sort of tropical system affecting the southeast U.S. next week. Haven't bought that scenario yet...we will see.

On the football front, MSU beat Gardner-Webb last Saturday night. This Saturday, State travels to Columbia to take on South Carolina. I full expect this game to be a hard-fought defensive struggle. Should be a good game.

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Game Night...

Mississippi State hosts Boiling Spring's own Gardner-Webb tonight at Scott Field at MSU. It doesn't matter who we play or when it is....I always get my normal pre-game nervousness, and that is the case right now.

Hot is the weather word through Sunday even though Fall officially arrives at 5:51am.

In the tropics, I am watching a tropical wave that will cross the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That one bears watching for any signs of developement.

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TD 10....We hardly knew ye....

TD 10 made landfall this evening near Ft. Walton Beach, Florida. Obviously, any chance for this to become Tropical Storm Jerry has ended.

Inland rains and spin-off tornadoes will remain a threat over the Deep South.

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TD 10

Tropical Depression 10 i now a completely tropical system....in other words, it now has a warm core and not a cold core. At any rate, this will scrape along the western Florida panhandle coastline this evening and the Alabama and Mississippi coasts tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will not be a big problem with this system. The main threats will be heavy rain and spin-off tornadoes in parts of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

TD 10 could strengthen slightly in Tropical Storm Jerry, but again, the main threats will be rain and tornadoes.

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Subtropical Depression 10

Subtropical Depression 10 has formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is weak, and will probably remain relatively so until landfall. There is the chance this could become Jerry prior to landfall however.

More later today after I get into the office....

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Gulf system...

A quick late-afternoon note here on our low pressure in the Gulf. A recon plane has been inspecting the system, and the highest wind gust they have found was a whopping 16 knots. So, we still do not have a classified tropical or subtropical system, and it appears the system still has a lot of organizing to do.

Whatever this system develops into will head generally west-northwest toward the central Gulf coast. At this point, rain looks to be the biggest concern wherever this makes landfall, but we will keep a close eye on it.

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Tropical Action in the Gulf

Due to a couple of dirrerenft reasons, I was not able to post as I normally would earlier today. My time is currently limitied, but I wanted to put a quick note out there that I am closely watching what will probably become 'Jerry' in the Gulf. At this point, we are dealing with a sprawling upper air low, but a low level center will likely form within the next 24 hours, and there is really nothing in the surrounding environment that will impede development. So, in other words, the system is really only battling itself in order to get things cranking. Once it improves structurally, it should be off to the races.

All interests from the Alabama coastline westward through the Texas coast need to closely monitor the progress of this system, and of course, I will have plenty of thoughts and updates for you here as this system organizes. Stay tuned....

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Go State!

Above is the game-winning touchdown for Mississippi State, scored by Christian Ducre, as Mississippi State defeated Auburn in Auburn 19-14 in a hard-fought, hard-hitting defensive struggle on the Plains. For the second consecutive week, Mississippi State's defense has not allowed their opponent to score in the second half. The game came down to a nerve-wrenching final defensive series in which Auburn drove down to the MSU 9 yard line, setting up first and goal. The State defense held, and MSU prevailed 19-14. I am very proud of my Bulldogs. Next up....Cleveland County's own Gardner-Webb University.

The weather will be fantastic the next few days with lots of sunshine, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s. In fact, some communities will likely dip into the upper 40s tonight.

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Wow....

Well, what was originally thought to be a day with occasional rain with embedded thunderstorms turned out to be one of the more active severe weather days in recent memory. A slew of tornado warnings were issued throughout the Carolinas, including five in the Triad viewing region. That equated to a lot of wall-to-wall coverage for me, but it is a privilege to do it, and I am happy for that opportunity.

Thankfully, I have heard of no devastating damage or injuries.

This will be an interesting case study to review in the future. The atmospheric setup was obviously very favorable for rotating thunderstorms. One of the major factors was probably a low lifted condensation level due to the tropical nature of the airmass in place. We also had a mid-level low skirting overhead adding to the helicity. Anyway, I would love to review a case study of this one.

Fantastic weather takes hold for the weekend, and I think some spots will definitely make a run at the upper 40s Sunday morning. Enjoy the weather this weekend!

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Tropical Rains...

I am in the office early today due to make sure we have things covered as we head into the afternoon hours today.

The western sections of the Charlotte and Triad viewing areas have already seen some needed rain today. For those of you that have missed the rain so far, hang tight....things still looks good for the rain to move through the rest of the viewing regions late this afternoon into this evening. As far as amounts are concerned, still a big question mark. But, we will take what we can get.

Also of note, a tornado warning is in effect for Tuscaloosa County back in central Alabama. The storm that prompted that tornado warning is associated with the old mid-level center of Humberto. Although that mid-level center will weaken as it approaches the Carolinas, locations in the region that make it up into the 80s will have to watch for a few strong or severe storms this afternoon and evening. For the most part, I think that threat will remain confined to areas near the Coastal Plain, but we will watch it.....

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Quick Hits..

Due to a change in my routine tonight, this post will be short and to the point.

• Looks like all systems are a 'go' for some much-needed rains as the remnants of Humberto get pulled through the Carolinas ahead of an advancing cold front. Amounts are still in question, but I think an average of 1-2" is a possibility. Let's hope so!
  
• Nice cool-down settles in by Saturday night with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s Sunday and Monday. Absolutely fantastic.
  
• Rather complicated weather pattern next week with parts of New England probably hotter than we will be due to some wedging effects. We will delve more into those specifics as we draw closer.
• Tropical Storm Ingrid has formed, although the system will encounter heavy shear and likely weaken over the weekend.
  

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Lots on the Plate....

Lots of information coming later today in another post, but I wanted to share this quick story.

My normal Wednesday shift is double-market duty during the midday shift. So, I got up, showered, got dressed, ate breakfast with the family, took Jayden to school then headed in to work. I walked into the weather office, coat and lunch in hand, and Matt Morano greeted me with a puzzled look on his face. He said, "Aren't you off today?" Then it hit me....yep, I was indeed off....yesterday was my Labor Day holiday. So, I turned around, picked up my coat and lunch, and back home I went.

Frustrating. I guess I got caught up in all of the tropical system hoopla last week and I totally forgot I had a 3-day weekend. Ugh. Oh well.

Anyway, full post coming later this evening.....

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Sunday Night Extravaganza

Let's take some topics one by one....

• Gabrielle - This system looks to have behaved pretty much as-forecasted with some winds gusts over 50mph in the Outer Banks and some good amounts of rain. Otherwise, this certainly was not a catastrophic system, and the lingering rain and winds in the Outer Banks tonight should end by Monday morning.
  
• Elsewhere in the tropics, there are two tropical waves that have my eye. One is northeast of the Windwards and another is southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both tropical waves have the potential to slowly develop, and we will be closely watching both of them.
  
• Some much-needed rain - A cold front will drop in here from the northwest Wednesday and stall out for the next few days. That means a good chance for some showers and storms on a daily basis Wednesday through Saturday. In fact, these are the best rain chances over a multiple day period I remember seeing in a long time around here.
• Taste of Fall - A Canadian cold front will sweep through here Saturday, and I think it will usher in a brief period of much cooler temperatures. At this point, I think we can expect a couple of days with highs in the 70s and lows probably in the 50s. In fact, I have a high of 77 with a mostly sunny sky for Sunday in the current 7-day.
• The rest of September - This is the time of year when I always get my forecasting juices really flowing again. No doubt about it, to me summertime weather is the least exciting to forecast (hurricanes aside), and it is easy to slip into a forecasting and broadcasting funk during the dog days of summer. How many different ways can you say "heat and drought?" But, this is the time of year when airmass changes are in the offing, and we begin to make that slow transition from Summer to Winter. At any rate, after the nice shot of cooler temperatures we will see about a week from now, I think much of the rest of September will be warm. I think odds are we will see some sort of Southeast U.S. or western Atlantic ridge rear its ugly head again, and the second half of the month could definitely be a warm one.
  
• College Football - Man, I love football. Mississippi State took care of Tulane last night 38-17 in the Superdome. MSU held Tulane to 6 yards of total offense in the second half and no first downs....one of the most dominating halves of football I can remember. And, after I saw how LSU handled VT, I don't feel quite as bad about the whipping LSU gave us in Week 1. Next up....Auburn on the Plains.
  
• NFL Football - The Panthers won today in much the same fashion as MSU did last night. The teams played even in the first half, then Carolina took over in the second half. Nice win for the team there...off on the right foot for sure.
  

Not a whole lot of out of the ordinary activities in the line-up for us this week. I have some grass that absolutely needs to be cut, but I will have a hard time bringing myself to do it knowing that cooler weather is just around the corner. We will see.

Everyone have a great week.

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Weather Buffet

On the menu this evening....Gabrielle wrap-up, next tropical system potential, taste of Fall heading in, and my thoughts for the rest of September. Full post coming later this evening....

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Landfall for Gabrielle

Here is the landfall statement from the NHC.

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Same Old...

No major changes with the 11pm advisory.

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8pm Intermediate Advisory.....no significant changes

NHC 8pm Public Advisory.

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Gabrielle getting closer to the coast

Gabrielle is a minimal tropical storm with 40mph sustained winds. The system will scrape through the Outer Banks of North Carolina tomorrow afternoon and evening. Below is the text of my tropical discussion from the News 14 Carolina website.

I have the audio feel of the Mississippi State game pulled up here in the weather office. Kickoff is at 7pm.....at the Superdome playing Tulane. Go Dawgs!

Maximum sustained winds were near 40mph with gusts to 50mph. The system was located about 185 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina and was moving to the northwest at close to 8mph.

The center of Gabrielle will move near or over the coast of North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening. For the North Carolina coast, from the Crystal Coast northward through the Outer Banks....expect winds to gust over 50mph at times by Sunday afternoon and evening, a storm surge of 2-3 feet, and rain totals of 2" - 3" with localized abount to 5" possible.

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Subtopical Storm Gabrielle is born

The NHC went ahead and pulled the trigger on naming the system this evening. The system looks very ragged as I am typing this, but some slow strengthening is possible into Saturday. More as Saturday unfolds....

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Still waiting.... 8:30pm post...

Well, recon has headed home without finding a closed low level circulation. So, we still have no classified tropical system at the moment. However, it will not take much organization to had a tropical depression of tropical storm on our hands.

If you have beach plans this weekend, Myrtle Beach could see some gusty winds and rain, but the worst effect will likely occur along the North Carolina coast. The weather will head downhill with some winds and rains by Sunday. All along the North and South Carolina coast, expect some heavy surf and rip currents this weekend.

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Getting close...

Our little low pressure has developed some nice convection today, and as is often the case in this type of scenario, the low level center is reforming closer to some of the deep convection. So far, a recon plane in the system has yet to find a closed low level circulation due to this reforming process. Here is a statement from the NHC....

5:05pm Statement

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Ready to Go? 8:40am post

Well, it looks like shear has relaxed this morning as anticipated, and thunderstorms are blowing up near the center of circulation. It is not a definite that this will now develop into a tropical system, but if it is going to, it now has a chance. My thoughts are we probably have a classified tropical system by tonight. We shall see. It all will depend on if the system can develop and sustain convection near that center.

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Watching and Waiting

Well, it has been a busy day for me from start to finish. Here is how my schedule has been today...

1. Up and moving prior to the 7am hour. Gotta get up, eat breakfast, and get Jayden off to pre-school. On days that I work the evening shift (like today), my normal attire for driving her to school is sweatpants and my hard-soled house shoes, combined with hair that matches how I feel on half a cup of coffee.
2. After taking Jayden to school, it is time to change into shorts and....that's right....clean out the gutters. Now, I am very thankful to have a high-powered blower that I can now blow out the gutters and not have to dig them out by hand. (Thanks to mom for getting us the blower for Christmas last year after seeing me complaining about cleaning out the gutters by hand here on the blog!)
   
3. After gutter-cleaning time, it was time for a shower then off my family and I go to the grocery store. My wife and I often take the "split-up tactic" now when buying groceries. She makes up a list for me and a list for her, and off we go with our allotted children. This time I had Grace (our middle child)....she was a big helper, and we had a good time picking out our mommy-delegated items.
   
4. After the grocery store, it was off to get some gas then go wait in line to pick Jayden up from school.
   
5. After picking up Jayden, off to home we go.....time for me to bring in all of the groceries, shave, and get work clothes together.
6. Lunch time. A new creation from my wife....grilled tomato and cheese sandwiches. I have to say....wow, that was delicious!
   
7. Off I go to work to begin the forecasting process and get set for my on-air shift, which I am in now.
   

OK, now that I have bored you to death, let's talk a little weather.

The shear is just beginning to relax on our little low pressure in the western Atlantic. It has had NO chance at developing today due to hostile upper level winds. However, it appears any window of opportunity for development is just now opening, and we will see where we stand over the next 24 hours. Below, I have once again pasted my discussion from the News 14 Carolina website.

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Well???

The low pressure out in the western Atlantic has certainly not done any developing yet, and shear continues to take a heavy toll. The low pressure looks sickly at best right now. This is the point when it is tempting to say...'oh well, this one is done.'

While it is a definitive possibility that this system never even develops, I think we need to give it until at least tonight. The shear should relax by this evening, and if we don't see any organization by this time tomorrow, then we can say this was much ado about nothing. But, at this point, all computer modeling I see this morning still develops this into a tropical system.

Until then, we watch and wait.

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Gabrielle??

Below, I will post my commentary I placed over on the News 14 Carolina website. However, I wanted to add a couple of items here.

As I mentioned in the previous post, I think once the shear relaxes on the low pressure area, all other conditions appear lined up for this thing to develop pretty quickly. A recon plane is heading into the system this afternoon, and it will be interesting to see what they find. It is apparent that a low level circulation exists, and it is really just a matter of getting convection to wrap around that center.

Most modeling is indication an East Coast landfall, and the Carolians appear to be the hot zone right now. In fact, the 0z Canadian run and some recent European model runs slam an intense hurricane into the Carolina coast.

I simply cannot make any specific forecasts on where this system will head until it actually develops better, structurally speaking. However, I will be keeping the blog warm with any ideas I have as the next several days unfold.

Below is the text I placed on the News 14 Carolina website.....

There is a low pressure area with a well-defined low level circulation located about 400 miles WSW of Bermuda this afternoon. However, it is being impacted by significant shear, and that has kept the significant thunderstorm activity associated with the system displaced off to the east of that low level center.

It appears that the shear will relax by tomorrow. If that does indeed occur, I think the conditions are ripe for this to develop pretty quickly. In fact, odds are that we will have Gabrielle on our hands within the next 36 hours.

A ridge should develop over the system late in the work week, and that should steer the system generally to the WNW. A landfall is possible really anywhere between the Georgia coast and the mid-Atlantic states (and the possibility exists that this will simply turn out to sea before making landfall), but the most likely eventual landfall spot looks to be the somewhere along the Carolina coast at this point.

If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not alter those plans just yet. However, please remain up to speed on this possible system's progress.

Around here, we could see some much-needed rain from the system later Saturday into Sunday. However, if the system skirts by to our east, a dry weekend would likely unfold.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina...we will have a full tropical updated for you every hour and :21 and :51 past.

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Quick Wednesday Morning Hit....More Later Today

I really think the potential is increasing for a tropical system hit to the Carolinas this weekend. The system is still heavily sheared this morning, but once that shear relaxes, the system should really pop. Track guidance will be fluid until the system becomes better defined, but most modeling now takes this system to the Carolina Coast.

More details later today. Prepping for my on-air shift now.....

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