Thursday Evening Update...

Severe weather remains a big concern tonight from the Great Lakes all of the way down into Mississippi and Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes remain possible in that region.

For North Carolina, showers will be possible as the night unfolds, and there could be a rumble of thunder or two as well.

Our best shot of showers and storms probably comes Friday ahead of the actual cold front. A few storms could be locally strong to severe Friday afternoon with damaging winds being the primary concern. In terms of rain amounts, I think 0.5" to 1" is a good estimate, although I have some concerns about the Gulf of Mexico inflow into the Carolinas getting cut off.

I think the pattern evolution next week is getting a little clearer. Today's 12z run of the Euro has come around to recent GFS solutions on keeping a full latitude trough in tact as it moves through the eastern U.S. Previous Euro runs has split a piece of the trough off into a closed upper air low over the southern Rockies or Plains states.

If the trough stays full latitude, then we will probably see some showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday and then turn much chillier for the second half of next week.