12z European

After taking an initial look at the latest European model run, it is farther north with the track of the surface low for Tuesday than any of its previous 5 runs. Due to that fact, it prints out very little snow for NC, but it does appear to indicate ice potential for western NC.

However, like I have been saying, paying a lot of attention to details this far out is rather pointless. Remember, the two things I said in the previous post to look for in this time-frame from a storm system.....trends and overall set-up.

We can determine better when tonight's 0z Euro run comes out whether that model is indeed trending north, or it just had an inconsistent run with the new 12z. As far as overal set-up is concerned, it holds the surface high way back in Canada and never really pushes it into good CAD position during the storm. That is a big reason for the differences in the 12z run today and the previous 5 runs.

So, continue to sit back and relax while the models try to get a grasp on the situation. Today's model data certainly hasn't been good news for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but take a deep breath and relax. Lots of changes occur with potential systems in this time-frame. We could very well wind up with 35 degrees and an inch of rain from this, or it could still wind up being a big winter storm. Stay tuned...

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Wednesday Midday Post...

Back in the saddle at work today. Very nice stuff out there today with highs not far from 60 in the Charlotte region. However, I think this is the last above-average temperature day for at least the next 7-10 days....so enjoy!

The storm track will remain to our south through this weekend, so any precip from and storm systems will stay suppressed to our south through at least Sunday.

However, I continue to look at winter weather potential Tuesday. The 0z European model stayed in step with its previous 4 runs in showing a big winter storm for much of the western Carolinas. The GFS continues to waffle around from run to run, and honestly, I don't trust the GFS any farther than I can throw it at this point. Until it shows some consistency, I will not trust it very much.

Again, let me stress here what to look for in evaluating a storm system in the 5-6 day range. I always look for two things....the overall set-up being presented, and any possible trends starting to develop. In spite of the GFS's flouderings, I do not see any significant trends with the system yet. And, the synoptics (overall large-scale picture) remain virtually the same as yesterday. We still have a high pressure moving into a very favorable CAD position, there is still a lot of QPF (amount of precip) involved, and we are looking at (on most modelling) a rather favorable low pressure track for Carolians winter events.

It will be very interesting to see what today's 12z Euro model shows.

So, my opinion remains unchanged on the Tuesday system. I still think this has the potential to be a big winter storm for parts of the Carolinas. It is way to early for details, but I will keep watching for any trends closely....

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12z Tuesday Euro

12z Euro is in, and wow....still showing a major winter storm for the Carolinas next week. Clinging to the details is somewhat pointless at this time-frame, but for 4 Euro runs in a row, these general ideas have shown up...

• Classic cold air damming during the storm...parent high remains in place.
• Lots of QPF...in fact, over an inch of QPF for most of NC...even up to 2 inches.
• Fairly long-duration event....24-48 hours.

Like I said, clinging to details at this point is fruitless, but taken verbatin, the 12z Euro shows a significant amount of snow followed by a crippling ice storm for the Charlotte region.

I am not saying we are going to be hit with a devastaing winter storm next week. However, I am continuing to say that we have the potential for a winter storm in the Carolinas next week, and it needs to be watched closely.

The GFS is showing somewhat of a similar set-up, but details are a bit different. But, the European model, typically a bit superior in the medium range, showing this for 4 runs in a row gets my attention.

Stay tuned....

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Winter Weather Potential Ahead?

A couple of quick comments here. Yes, I have seen the GFS occasionally spitting out some snow in the Carolinas Friday or Friday night, but I do not think that will be a concern. That solution has very little support from other modelling or the GFS's own ensembles. I think that wave probably gets suppressed to the south of us.

However, I DO think we have winter weather potential around next Tuesday. The European model, for a few runs in a row now, has shown a huge winter storm all the way up parts the East Coast. For a few runs in a row now, its solution has dumped large amounts of wintry precip in the western Carolinas. The GFS continues to waffle around with that system, but the Euro has been rock-solid with it for a few runs now.

No, I am not saying we will have a big winter storm next week. What I am saying is that potential is there, and we will need to watch it closely. I feel pretty confident that this storm will exist. The big question for us is how cold with the air be when it arrives. We shall see....

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NOAA Weather Radios

Due to the tornado tragedy in Florida, I feel the need to make this post. My main point is plain and simple. Every home, business, school, and place of worship needs to have a NOAA Weather Radio.

Lots of government money is spent each and every year to put up outdoor sirens for the purpose of notifying the public of life-threatening weather danger. While those sirens are a good thing, many people mis-understand their design. Those sirens were designed for the purpose of alerting you to impending danger if you are outside....they were not designed to wake you up in your home in the middle of the night if a tornado is heading your way. I would much rather see government money go toward making sure every structure has a functioning NOAA Weather Radio than more sirens being put up.

Now, a comment was posted below the previous blog post, and it is a comment I hear fairly frequently. A complaint I often hear with NOAA Weather Radios is that people find them annoying due to the fact that they give them information that at times they don't want to know. A lot of folks still have older models of weather radios, and if that is the case, then yes, they can get frustrating at times.

However, newer weather radios are produced carrying the S.A.M.E. technology. Basically, S.A.M.E. technology allows you to select to hear warnings for only the counties you wish. For example, if you only want to hear warnings for only Union County, then that is all you would here. You can even get weather radios now that will only sound an alarm for the specific types of warnings you desire to hear as well.

So, once again, I cannot say strongly enough how much I encourage you to get a weather radio if you don't have one already. And, make sure you child's school has one as well. And, like I mentioned above, places of worship need them too...I have seen far too many weather-related church tragedies in my time as well.

While I suppose the weather radios can be annoying at times, I would say to you that I don't think any level of annoyance surpasses the need of hearing life-saving information. While all of us here at News 14 Carolina have the foremost goal of being on the air, bringing you possibly life-saving information, we cannot wake you up in the middle of the night and turn your TV on.

If the information I have looked over is correct, then unfortunately the loss of life in Florida was avoidable. Tornado warnings were issued in advance of the tornadoes arriving in the areas affected, and had folks heard the warnings at least 5-10 minutes ahead of the tornado, they could very well have made it to a place of safety. The situation down there just breaks my heart....and I felt compelled to put this post up.

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Nice Weekend Ahead

I think most of the News 14 Carolina staff is still catching our breath mentally after all of the action yesterday. Really, it has been pretty busy around here since the New Year....we have covered several big live events, and of course, we have had a few relatively minor winter weather events....but the way we cover them, lots of manpower and hours are required for those. So, a nice quiet evening and weekend ahead is a much-welcomed thing.

Also, today is Kris Cook's final day at News 14 Carolina. Kris is truly a gifted videographer who really knows how to tell a story in pictures. He will be missed. And, as many of you know, Kate Barker's final day was a couple of weeks ago. She is extremely talented and quite good at her craft, and her bright and smiling face is certainly noticeably missing from the halls nowadays.

And, what a tragedy down in Florida. As of the last I have seen, 19 fatalities in the storms. Some of the damage photos I have seen are horrific....truly a sad situation. I do not yet know all of the circumstances involved with these storms, but this is why I tell anyone who will listen to please have a NOAA weather radio in your home. Every home needs to have one.

Well, everyone have a great evening. Lots of cold weather on the way for sure. Winter weather fans....outside of the mountains, quiet conditions for the next 6 or 7 days. Our next big system will roll through sometime next weekend, but frankly, I have not evaluated that one much yet. When storm systems are rolling through our area, I always tend to primarily focus on the one at hand, so less of my attention gets cast on the "next" event. So, I am still in a little bit of a mental catch-up mode, forecasting wise, after our event yesterday.

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Quick 2:45pm Update....

Things are winding down. Most spots in the Charlotte region got a nice little shot of snow with this event. Up in the Triad region, some snow fell, but it was generally lighter.

Significant icing is not going to be a problem this afternoon and tonight. Temps are generally above freezing, and should primarily remain that way through the night.

One possible exception is the Virginia border counties in the Triad viewing area. There could be some additional rather minor ice accumulation overnight with the second wave of precip in that area.

Thanks so much for reading...the hit count for the blog has been huge the past couple of days. Thanks!

If time allows, I post a little later on why I believe the icing situation we were concerned about never materialized.

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Snow

Snow has been falling for an hour or so across much of the area. Most temps are in the lower 30s.

We will probably see a few hours of primarily snow this morning.

The dewpoints have risen significantly, as expected, as the snow has moved in and the temps really haven't dropped quite as much as I thought. But either way, temps are below freezing, and we wil monitor the temps closely thoughout the day.

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