Wednesday Midday Post...

Back in the saddle at work today. Very nice stuff out there today with highs not far from 60 in the Charlotte region. However, I think this is the last above-average temperature day for at least the next 7-10 days....so enjoy!

The storm track will remain to our south through this weekend, so any precip from and storm systems will stay suppressed to our south through at least Sunday.

However, I continue to look at winter weather potential Tuesday. The 0z European model stayed in step with its previous 4 runs in showing a big winter storm for much of the western Carolinas. The GFS continues to waffle around from run to run, and honestly, I don't trust the GFS any farther than I can throw it at this point. Until it shows some consistency, I will not trust it very much.

Again, let me stress here what to look for in evaluating a storm system in the 5-6 day range. I always look for two things....the overall set-up being presented, and any possible trends starting to develop. In spite of the GFS's flouderings, I do not see any significant trends with the system yet. And, the synoptics (overall large-scale picture) remain virtually the same as yesterday. We still have a high pressure moving into a very favorable CAD position, there is still a lot of QPF (amount of precip) involved, and we are looking at (on most modelling) a rather favorable low pressure track for Carolians winter events.

It will be very interesting to see what today's 12z Euro model shows.

So, my opinion remains unchanged on the Tuesday system. I still think this has the potential to be a big winter storm for parts of the Carolinas. It is way to early for details, but I will keep watching for any trends closely....