Nice weather today... question marks for our weekend system...

>> Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video....give it a look.

We are between storm systems today, and the result is a nice forecast with sunshine and lots of highs in the 60-63 degree range.

Our next system swings through tomorrow with clouds, showers, and highs in the 50s.

Friday will be dry.

Weekend system...

More questions and answers at this point. My gut feeling at this juncture is that for most in our region, this winds up being a wet scenario as opposed to a white one. But that is definitely not a certainty. Just kind of my feeling at the moment.

I do think there are still a lot of swings left in the modeling over the next couple of days, so we will see.

With the 0z run, the GFS looks way off....too much emphasis placed on the northern stream, result is the low pressure getting drawn way north. The 6z run looks a little better.

The last couple of European model runs look fairly reasonable with a track from the northern Gulf to near the Carolina coast.

If you are wanting snow, what you need to happen is a phase to occur with the system far enough south to allow the phasing to pull southward the necessary cold air aloft. At the moment, the only model really showing at least that possibility is the Canadian. It is there on the Euro too, but the track is a bit too far north for much in the way of NC snow.

A lot of things must go right for snow fans to be happy this time around. The lack of cold air being in place ahead of this system is the biggest problem.

Let's give this another 36 hours or so of model runs to get a better handle on how this will play out. I am not ready to write off the snow scenario, but at lot of dominoes much fall correctly.


Anonymous 8:30 AM  

Maybe if all the weathermen down play this and call for rain maybe we will get snow! :) I'm sure you know what I mean living in NC. It seems that a lot of our big snows were not forecasted in the past.


Matthew East 9:23 AM  

Haha....whatever it takes!

Anonymous 8:43 PM  

I think by Friday night or early Sat AM, we should have pretty good idea of if snow or rain.

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