Midday thoughts for this weekend....
>> Monday, February 13, 2012
The 12z GFS crushed our potential system. It keeps the southern energy too strong to pop a strong system for the Southeast. See below.
The 12z European model, on the other hand, shows a very nice track for snow in the upper Southeast...including western NC. The 12z European is a little stronger with the phasing than was the 0z, so even though the track of the actual surface low is a touch farther north, the result is still a nice solution for possible western Carolinas snow.
Tons could go wrong, so please, snow fans, don't get excited at this point. The pieces of energy both responsible for the actual system, and responsible for the track the system takes, are still out to sea in the Pacific.
One little thing....I know some will rightly be worried about a northwest trend. Assuming the upper air low near the Canadian maritimes is modeled correctly, this would limit how far north the system can go. But again, that's a big assumption right now. 
5 comments:
Would this be a chance for winter weather this weekend for Greenville SC as well?
You mentioned western carolina. What about the triad?
Kristen....It is possible in GSP, but the further south you go, the more difficult it would be.
Yes, the Triad is in the game.
Remember though, if we don't get a phasing at the right time, we could see nothing at all.
Now this is for tonight's storm right?
Dylan...no, the weekend storm.
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