Challenging weekend storm system...

Here is today's edition of the video. The entire video is focused on this weekend's storm system. Give is a look. Still a ton of question marks, but a trend has been toward a slower, colder scenario for parts of the region....



After a foggy start for many in the region, our Friday weather will be nice with a good deal of sun and highs close to 60.

Weekend system...

A couple of trends on the modeling over the past 24 hours. First of all, the entire system seems to be slowing down a bit. That will mean we will likely be able to hold off the rain for much of our region until after sunset tomorrow.

The other trend is a more pronounced push of cold air during the day Sunday, from north to south.

When you combine those two trends, the result it a better chance of at least some wintry precip in parts of North Carolina by later Sunday.

I will say that if the GFS is correct, you can largely forget about any significant wintry precip outside of higher elevations. However, most of the other modeling is giving parts of northern NC, at least down to around I-40 or so, a chance.

So, at this point, I think Sunday will be a day where piedmont temps start off in the 40s with rain, and then as the colder air bleeds in, temperatures aloft and at the surface drop, giving a chance of the rain changing to some type of wintry precip from north so south.

Hoe far south depends on how long the precipitation lingers before exiting.

One thing to note....at least on the European, Canadian, NAM, and RPM, this is not a cold air chasing the moisture scenario that so often doesn't work out around here. This is a separate disturbance diving into the backside of the system that keeps precip going after the cold air is funneling in. See the image below and note the disturbance in western Tennessee.

Another factor is the potential loss of moisture on the dendritic growth zone...I discuss that in the video.

So, interesting to watch. Probably not a huge deal for the piedmont, but I sure wouldn't be surprised now to see the ground whitened in some spots outside the mountains (mainly I-40 northward) by Sunday night.