Afternoon update...

I've skimmed over the 12z model data, and at this point, I see nothing to make me change my ideas from what was put out this morning.

Sure looks like the precip will linger around long enough Sunday (due to the secondary vort diving into the backside of the system) to allow the cold air to spill into a portion of NC enough to give some wintry precip by later Sunday.

I still think there is certainly the chance that the ground gets whitened in some spots from roughly I-40 northward, and there could even be some minor accumulations south of there.

Ground temps are warm, and I still have some concerns about moisture vacating the snow growth zone (you must have moisture getting lifted up into the region aloft colder than -10 C to get snowflakes to form....if you don't have that, you don't have snow...you have some other type of precip).

But all in all, this is an interesting system to watch.

The 12z European actually came in with more snow than previous runs across NC. In fact, at face value, it's a pretty significant winter storm north of I-40 with some mainly light accumulations down into southern NC.

So we will see. Still tons of moving pieces.

Here are a couple of snow accumulation charts from the previous run of the RPM. This is as close to my thinking as anything right now I suppose. Notice that parts of Kentucky get hammered.