12z updates...

With the 12z runs....

GFS still looks way off. It destroys the southern piece of energy way too quickly, and that weakened disturbance kicks out way faster than other modeling. This puts the GFS back into the camp of its 0z shenanigans....driving a low pressure right up into central NC.

Canadian is slower and stronger with the southern piece of energy.....it only weakens it as a 'kicker' dives in out west and forces it quickly east. The result is a broad low moving from the northern Gulf to a decent amount off the Carolina coast. No precip makes it north of southern VA on this model. While not much, there would likely be a bit of snow on the northern fringes of the precip shield.

European model holds the intensity of the southern piece of energy pretty well but has little phasing with the northern branch. Result is surface low from near the mouth of the MS then to Charleston and then east of the OBX. This solution would likely have a little snow on the NW side of the precip shield.

UKMET looks stronger and further northwest....can only see in 24 hour increments though. This looks like rain for most in our region.
Bottom line.....mountains are in the game for some snow....possibly...possibly some snow as the low moves to the Carolinas coast elsewhere on the northern fringe. I don't think the GFS solution is likely.

At this point, I think it's looking like it will take a Hail Mary pass in order to get things to line up for much in the way of snow for the piedmont and upstate. Not impossible, but a whole lot of things are going to have to line up and trend in the right direction, and that's looking increasingly difficult to do.

However, lots of moving pieces here, and like I said this morning, expect plenty more model madness over the next 36 hours.