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Above is today's edition of the video. In it, I talk about a nice weekend, the arctic blast next week, and some longer-range thoughts.
Highs today will warm well into the 50s around the region....even some lower 60s in spots.
A potent upper level disturbance will swing through the region tonight, and I have gone ahead and thrown in the chance of a brief shower or two tonight as that occurs. However, if you do see a shower, it will not amount to much.
The weekend weather will be fantastic. Look for lots of lower 60s for highs, and lots of sunshine too!
Arctic blast...
No real changes here on my thinking with the big shot of arctic air next week. The arctic front will plunge through Sunday night, and Monday will be a cold air advection day with stiff northwest winds and highs in the 40s.
Tuesday will be the coldest day with this shot of cold air, and on Tuesday, many of us will likely struggle to make it above freezing for any extended period of time.
The coldest morning will likely be Wednesday morning when many spots likely drop into the teens for lows.
We will gradually modify the cold air later next week. Still no definitive storm systems to hang our hats on.
Long range....
The NAO will head toward neural and maybe negative as January unfolds, while the AO is still up in the air. At this point, I think the month of January will feature a lot more in the way of cold air at times than what occurred in December.
Docile weather will be the rule for the next several days. Highs today will be in the 50s with upper 50s and likely a lot of lower 60s tomorrow through the New Year's weekend.
A couple of clippers will drop through over the next couple of days, but outside of maybe a quick shot of some mountain snow tomorrow night, they will pass through in dry fashion.
Arctic blast...
What will easily be the coldest airmass so far this season will arrive next week. The arctic front will move through Sunday night or Monday morning, and that arctic air will plunge in here Monday.
The European and Canadian models are still a little colder than the GFS with this, but the bottom line is it looks cold. Many foothills and piedmont spots look to have highs in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, and I fully anticipate a number of spots heading toward the teens for lows by Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning.
As for wintry precip chances? Nothing much to hang your hat on right now. We remain in an energetic flow pattern, and at some point, we will likely see one of these disturbances amplify in the right fashion to give some wintry precip chances. But nothing definitive yet.
Highs today will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s today.....very close to average for late December. But when you account for the overall mild month as well as a brisk west wind that will be with us at times, it makes for a fairly chilly-feeling day.
We will round out the rest of 2011 in quiet fashion weather-wise with highs warming through the 50s....even some lower 60s possible this weekend.
Next week....
A big pattern amplification will take place next week and will drive what should easily be the coldest air so far this season into the region. In fact, on some modeling, this coming cold shot is pretty brutal in nature for the eastern US as a whole.
Now, I mentioned yesterday about the storm system the European model was brewing early next week. It maintained the system with its 12z run yesterday, and the Canadian jumped on board as well.
However, like I also mentioned, it was really threading a small needle to get to that solution, and it was the extreme and therefore fairly unlikely scenario.
With the 0z runs today, no model produces and significant winter precip for the Carolinas early next week as the storm system either doesn't form at all or forms well to the north.
Will it come back on future model runs? Possibly. But I kind of doubt it. It was unlikely in the first place.
However, the pattern for January still looks at least somewhat more favorable for winter weather lovers than December did, so hang in there.
Above is today's edition of the video....give it a look.
Another intense and moisture-packed storm system is moving through the region today. Rain will continue with us at times, and the wind will become a factor as we get deeper into the day. Winds could gust over 30mph at times, and with a saturated ground, some trees could topple.
There is a threat of severe weather today in the coastal plain, and that severe weather potential might try to pull back closer to the I-85 corridor by early this afternoon as well. However, I think most of the Charlotte and Triad viewing regions will likely see the severe threat stay to the east.
Tomorrow will be a pretty chilly day with sun and Piedmont highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The weather will stay pretty docile then into the New Year's weekend.
Next week...
The European model goes nuts with the storm system pulling into the region early next week and cranks a significant storm system that brings snow to parts of the western and central Carolinas up through the Northeast. The GFS and Canadian are much more benign, just indicating a frontal passage.
At this point, while possible, I think the Euro solution is the extreme and not terribly likely to verify. However, it definitely bears watching.
In the longer term, there continue to be some indications that we are heading toward a more cold pattern in the eastern US as we get deeper into January. But that's not set in stone yet.
Above is today's edition of the video...give it a look.
A cold front continues to exit to the east, and in the wake of that front, drier, cooler air is arriving. Highs today will still be pretty mild, but as soon as tonight, you will rally feel the difference with lows in the 30s.
The region will see lots of sunshine today and tomorrow as the drier air takes hold. Highs tomorrow will be in the 50s though as temps return to more typical December levels.
Christmas Day...
The next impulse in this quick-hitting pattern will approach the region Sunday. It is looking like a lot of the heavier rain will get suppressed south of NC, but I will continue to mention the chance of at least some shower activity Christmas Day with the better chances being the further south you go in the region. See the video for more.
It is looking like Monday night and Tuesday will feature good chances of a chilly rain as the next storm system rolls through.
Lots of highs in the 50s next week....so slightly above average, but nothing like the warmth that part of this week has featured.
I hope you and yours have a warm, safe, and blessed Christmas!
Above is today's edition of the video....give it a look.
Our next storm system is already spreading rain in our direction. It's a very west start to the day in parts of eastern TX, southern AR, MS, and LA....and that is all due to a developing Gulf of Mexico low. That low will track into the southern Appalachians by this evening and will develop rain back into our region by this afternoon and evening.
Rain will be with us at times tonight before ending by tomorrow morning.
It will remain quite mild with highs today well into the 60s....even some low 70s possible again toward the Sandhills and coast. Lows will be in the 50s tonight.
Christmas weekend...
Christmas Eve is looking cooler with highs in the 50s, but it's also looking dry with some decent amounts of sun.
Christmas Day remains somewhat up in the air. The European model remains insistent that it will be a rainy day while some other modeling has backed off of that scenario. For the time being, I am still leaning toward the rainy scenario.
Next week will not be 'cold' relative to average, but it should not be nearly as mild as this week overall. I anticipate most of our highs to be slightly above average.
There remains the possibility of another storm system around the middle of next week.
Long term...
There are at least some faint indications of the NAO trying to head into negative territory as we head into January. If that occurs, it would mean a higher likelihood of a more sustained cold pattern in the eastern US. However, that potential NAO stitch is far from a certainty.
Above is today's edition of the video....lots to talk about.....give it a look.
We will have showers at times today as a storm system passes by to our northwest. It will also be quite mild with most highs in the 60s...even some low 70s over closer to the coast. High temps today will actually be in the ballpark of record territory.
In this very active pattern, the next storm system will arrive right on the heels of our current one. This will mean more rain developing in my later tomorrow into Friday morning.
At the moment, it appears most of us will have a dry Christmas Eve. However, our next system will then likely spread some chilly rain into the region by later Saturday night and Christmas Day. However, this is subject to change due to the very chaotic nature of the weather pattern.
The uncertain and chaotic pattern continues into next week. See the video for more....
I tell ya....it is hard to remember a time where the weather pattern was so loaded with energy and multiple disturbances. This makes for an extremely challenging and chaotic pattern.
In this type of pattern, it is going to be next to impossible to resolve the details of storm systems more than a day or two in advance. Just look at this weekend. At the moment, you have the GFS with a very chilly rain on Christmas Eve, while on the European and Canadian, it is Christmas Day.
One system will spread some rain in tonight through tomorrow. Another system will then move through later Thursday into Friday. Then we will have yet another over the Christmas weekend followed by another one sometime next week.
For the next two systems, we will be on the mild side of the system with highs next next few days largely in the 60s.
Chillier air will arrive over the Christmas weekend, and whichever day this weekend winds up being the rainy day, highs in the damming regions will likely be in the 40s.
As for snow and ice potential, the next three systems look to be rain-producers, although the weekend rain will likely be quite chilly. We will see about the system next week. Each system looks to get a little chillier as we go forward in time, and I would imagine at some point, we will get a good cold air damming episode to coincide with a storm system, but nothing definitive yet.
A big thanks to my buddy Hank Allen for filling for me and providing some content on the blog while I was on vacation last week.
After some milder weather for a stretch last week, we returned to some chilly weather over the weekend, and it's certainly cold this morning with temps in the 20s and 30s. Temps will begin to rebound this afternoon though with highs in the 50s.
Very challenging pattern...
There forecast challenges will be aplenty as we get deeper into this week and then right through the Christmas weekend into next week. A series of storm systems will impact the region, and the timing of these systems, and the exact way they will unfold, will remain a challenge.
A huge winter storm will occur over the next day or two from the TX and OK Panhandles into parts of KS and CO, and that system will spread some rain in here mainly tomorrow night and Wednesday.
It looks like another system will roll in here by late Thursday into Friday followed by another potential system Christmas Eve any maybe another one Monday.
At the moment, these systems look to be mainly rain-producers, but each system will get a little chillier as cold air damming gets involved.
Hope you're enjoying the springlike weather over the past couple of days! Probably doesn't feel like the holidays too much though. Things will be changing though as we head into the weekend. That front we talked about earlier in the week is moving very slow, and frankly not looking that impressive at all. Eventually though it will begin to move east during the day on Friday. As that happens look for showers to move into the area.
Most of the rain should be in the afternoon, but overall I don't expect to see tremendous rainfall totals out of this system. The big story will be the temperature swing behind the front. You're going to go from the mid 60s ahead of this sytem . . . to highs only in the low 50s by Saturday and Sunday.
We may be looking at a strong system affecting the area by the middle of next week but that is still a little up in the air. Have a great afternoon!
No change to the overall thinking over the next several days about what will be affecting your weather. As we talked about yesterday the big trough and storm system is rolling on shore today into southern California. As that happens it is forcing a ridge to develop over the eastern half of the country. Take a look at the NAM 500mb model for Wednesday evening.
Now again this is for tomorrow evening. First thing you notice is that the trough begins to open up. You don't have that closed 'circle' over the southwest like we had in the image I posted yesterday. That indicates the system will not be as strong as it moves east.
Secondly, note the large area of clock-wise flow in the southeastern US. That is a large ridge of high pressure with above normal temps for much of the region. Now at the surface a slight wedge will be present, so you won't see extreme warmth, but you will see some low 60s over the next couple of days.
So with that in mind we'll keep it mild through most of the week. As this system progresses east with a cold front, you will probably see some rain by Friday and Friday night. Yes I said rain. You won't be seeing any snow with this system as the cold air won't move in til behind the front. We'll talk more about the rain chances over the next couple of days. Have a great Tuesday!
Hey everybody . . . back in for Matthew this morning as he takes a little vacation with the family. Sorry this is a bit later than he usually posts. I'm on central time here so it's hard for me to get that up earlier! Anyway, hope everybody had a great weekend. Pretty quiet week on tap actually over the next several days. Here's a look at the NAM model run at 500 mb for this evening . . . That's a massive trough and storm system moving onto California today. Going to bring some heavy rain around the 4 Corners area. However if you look to the east of that . . . not a whole lot out there. Little disturbance rolling through the area this morning with some clouds, and that's about it. So basically we're going to be under a fairly nice ridge for the next several days. This will mean temperatures warming through the middle of the week. Now anybody looking for cold weather for the season or snow is going to be out of luck, but it should be pretty nice.
So with that in mind the forecast calls for warmer weather starting tomorrow. Look for a chilly day today with some upper 40s for highs, but then we're back into the upper 50s to low 60s for the next few days, and maybe even some mid 60s by Thursday. Rain chances will also be pretty non-existent through Thursday it looks like. Hope you're able to enjoy it!
An area of low pressure is forming offshore today and will spread some rain into coastal parts of the region. However, that will remain well east of most Piedmont locations. We have some mid and high level clouds out there ahead of our next cold front with highs today in the 50s.
That cold front will pass through in dry fashion tonight, and the weekend will feature lots of sun with fairly cool temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 50s...some upper 40s in some spots....and then I think most Piedmont spots will be in the 40s Sunday.
Another big trough digs in our west early next week, and again, the forecast challenge for next week will be how and when that energy moves from the western US into eastern parts of the country. At the moment, I think out next best chance of rain will be from late Thursday into Friday, but the timing is certainly subject to change.
Snow fans getting concerned....
First of all, it's just mid-December. Typically, this region has most of it's snowfall in January and February. Second of all, I don't think it is time yet to throw in the towel for wintry weather chances for the month of December yet. Let's see how the pattern shakes out for the second half of the month.
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look!
With our previous storm system out of the way, much colder air has settled on into the region. In fact, as I am typing this, a lot of temps this morning are a solid 30 degrees colder than they were at this point yesterday morning.
Highs today will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the region under a sunny sky.
A reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive for the weekend with 40s for highs and 20s for lows.
Another complicated forecast next week as we try to time when and how energy out west will eject eastward. See the video for more.....
A wet Wednesday forecast is on tap across our region with showers at times accompanying an area of low pressure. The steadiest and heaviest rain will be this afternoon, and the farther north and west you go in the region, the heavier the rain totals should be.
A few storms are possible, but the severe weather threat is low.
On the colder side of the system, snow is flying as I type in western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi. For the second time in as many weeks, snow will be on the ground later today in the Tennessee Valley. Very impressive for this early in the season.
The rain will kick over to a fairly heavy, wet snow in the mountains this afternoon, and several inches of snow seem likely in many mountain locations.
Much colder air arrives tonight, and then we will see a reinforcing shot of cold air arrive for the weekend. Highs this weekend will largely be in the 40s.
The weather will remain damp through tomorrow. Today and tonight will feature occasional showers with continued mild conditions. Highs will be well into the 60s today....even some 70s again the closer you get to the Sandhills and I-95. Lows will only drop down fairly close to 60 tonight.
Tomorrow will be a day with highs occurring during the morning with falling afternoon temps. As an area of low pressure strengthens as it moves through the area, our heaviest period of rain should be tomorrow afternoon and evening.
As the colder air takes over, the rain will kick over to a period of fairly heavy, wet snow up in the mountains, and several inches seem likely in many spots.
It will turn sharply colder behind that departing system with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday. An even colder blast of air arrives for the weekend with Piedmont highs only in the 40s and lows well down into the 20s.
For those wondering, I still don't see any really good winter weather chances outside of the mountains. However, we remain in a fairly chaotic pattern, and it is possible that we could continue to see unforeseen systems pop up relatively close to their arrival.
As mentioned in the discussion and videos last week, the system to impact the region this week is a slow-mover and will play a role in our weather through mid-week.
Today, tonight, and tomorrow, look for lots of clouds with some showers at times. Then we will get the brunt of the system to swing through Wednesday and maybe Wednesday night. At that point, we will see our heaviest rain, and as the system begins to pull away, a few inches of snow are quite possible up in the mountains.
It will be cooler following the system Thursday and Friday and then much colder for the weekend. In fact, Piedmont weekend highs look to be in the 40s with lows in the 20s.
I am hearing lots of rumbles of panic and cancelling of Winter. I just don't see any reason at all for this.
First of all, it's early December. Granted, we were entering a very cold stretch at this point last year, and it's certainly going to be fairly mild into the middle of next week. We have not had a prolonged, significant blast of cold air yet. However, it has been plenty chilly at times with lots of up and down temps.
Looking ahead to next week, I think we will see a pretty significant blast of cold air by the end of the week/ weekend. Not quite sure how cold, but pretty cold nonetheless.
As for snow/ wintry weather chances, most of the time, you don't want to have a pattern where cold just overwhelms the pattern.....that gives you cold and dry. A lot of times, you want to be fairly close to the battle zone of temps to keep the storm track active and nearby. And I can see that scenario unfolding for the Southeast as we head into mid-month.
Looking toward that mid-month period, I think there will plenty of cold air in the continent, and it looks to be a scenario where the Carolinas will be ripe for a cold air damming scenario or two down the road.
I also note, as I did back in my Winter Forecast, the this pattern continues to want to try and produce big, powerful upper air lows. Just look at earlier this week! Doesn't snow in November in Mississippi and Alabama much.....not bad for this "boring, mild pattern" we are in.
So, there will probably wind up being a couple of big systems later in the month, and of course, wherever those wind up, obviously fun and games will be had.
So, snow fans......relax. Let's see what happens. I see no reason for panic.
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look....
It's another cold start out there with temps in the 20s and 30s. However, highs will warm into the lower 60s for most today with sunshine all day. Pretty nice weather overall.
A weak cold front will slide through during the next 12 hours, but you will not even notice it is moving through. About the only impact is will have on our weather is to return our highs to the 50s tomorrow.
Next system....
Our next storm system will be a slow-mover, and there are still lots of timing difference amongst the models. Some modeling moves it in as early as later Tuesday (GFS) with other modeling (Euro) not until Thursday. Whenever the system does move through, look for some shower chances followed by chilly air.
Long-range...
One of the main components of my Winter Outlook was a general negative phase of the NAO and AO. Thus far, those indices have remained on the positive side. We will have one ingredient in place for cold air as we roll deeper in December, and that is a large ridge building near the West Coast. That alone would likely continue to provide us with some cold shots from time to time.
However, if you want to see a cold pattern lock into the eastern US, you really (in a La Nina) need the help of the NAO and AO. I still feel we will see these flip to negative at some point, but that is really just based off of the longer-term negative multi-year phase of the NAO we are in, and not based on anything I see in modeling right now. We will see.
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look.
The weather will remain very quiet around here through the weekend. Highs today will be in the 50s with highs up around 60s or so tomorrow. For the weekend, it looks like mainly 50s for highs. Morning lows will remain chilly....well down into the 30s, with some spots dipping into the upper 20s.
Next week....
The models are all over the place in their handling of storm systems next week. See the video for the graphics on this. The Canadian swings some northern branch energy through by Monday night, pushing a cold front through along with rain chances. The GFS is slower and keeps energy in the Southwest combined with northern branch energy. It swings the best rain chances through Monday night and Tuesday. The European model is the slowest of all in bring the rain through Wednesday.
I am going with a compromise approach this morning, indicating the best rain chances Monday night into Tuesday. However, that might have to be adjusted.
For some ideas on the longer range, see the video...
Here are some photos I snapped up in the mountains yesterday afternoon. Most of the time we were up there, it was snowing in a moderate to heavy fashion.
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.
It has been fascinating to watch this powerhouse upper air low develop and impact the Southeast. Underneath the upper low, snow has been falling from north Mississippi and Alabama up into Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Kentucky.
For our region, it has been soaking rains through the night, but that band of rain has continued a steady march eastward as we have arrived into this morning.
The upper air low will track up through eastern Tennessee and then continue northward from there. As a piece of energy pinwheels around the south side of the big upper air low, another round of precip will develop into the region this afternoon. Up in the mountains, almost all of this precip later today and tonight will be snow, and a few inches are possible in many mountain spots.
For the foothills and piedmont, look for rain showers that could mix with or kick over to snow showers at times, but any snow will not be significant once outside of the higher elevations.
Look for lots of sun tomorrow into the weekend with most highs in the 50s and lower in the 30s.
Our next front look to move in later Sunday or Monday, and a pretty good shot of cold air could follow that one around the middle of next week.
Nothing really profound here, but just wanted to reiterate what a major and unusual storm system this will be for the Southeast. It is not everyday that you see an upper level low develop to the intensity that it appears this one will.
The impacts will be wide-ranging. For the Carolinas and north Georgia, this will be a huge rainmaker, and I am quite concerned about flooding problems developing, especially from the NC mountains and foothills down into the Upstate and north Georgia.
Severe weather is also something that needs to be watched Monday and Tuesday from Georgia up through the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic. The dynamics will be through the roof....the bigger question will be instability.
Finally, snow. If the upper low develops as most models have it now, some snow will fall from much of Tennessee down into the Tennessee Valley. As the powerful upper low pivots east and northeast, the snow will spread into the mountains from north Georgia into NC and the Virginias. Some wrap-around flakes would even be possible outside of the mountains in the Carolinas, but it doesn't appear the low will take a favorable track to give NC spots much snow once outside of the mountains.
It is far to early to talk amounts, but in this type of setup, some areas of heavy, wet snow are quite possible, especially in the higher elevations.
That's all for now. I will post more over the next couple of days....
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Fantastic weather for the holiday as well!
Here is a Thanksgiving edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Today, it is all about the wide range of possibilities with our next major storm system early next week.
A cold front is advancing through the region today, and breezy conditions will be the rule. In the Piedmont, winds will gust over 25 or 30mph at times....up in the mountains, winds could gust over 50 or 60mph. Piedmont highs will be in the 60s.
Fantastic weather will take hold for Thanksgiving and Friday with highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s, and tons of sun.
Next storm system...
A major storm system will swing into the region in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. The details are still a bit up in the air, but it appears a powerful upper air low will close off over the Tennessee Valley. If that's the case, we would have a healthy rain and thunderstorm event, likely including severe weather possibilities. Underneath the upper air low, some snow could occur back in the Tennessee Valley and into the mountains.
These types of features are notoriously difficult to forecast and always have surprises up their sleeves....stay tuned!
Highs will head into the low and mid 70s for much of the region today as our next system approaches. At the same time, there is a pretty decent severe threat from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Ohio Valley today.
Intense dynamics pull into our region later tonight, and I expect a line of storms to move into the foothills and Piedmont a little after midnight tonight. Instability will be lacking, but there will be enough there to combine with the screaming wind fields aloft to provide the threat of damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two.
This will occur during the overnight hours in our region, so please keep those NOAA weather radios on and in the 'alert' position tonight.
The showers and storms exit early in the day tomorrow, and we will have some afternoon sun.
I expect full sunshine Thanksgiving and Friday with highs in the 60s.
Next system...
Our next intense system will swing in during the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Depending on how the system sets up, another severe weather threat could exist.
Highs today and tomorrow will top 70 degrees again in many spots in the region. Like we say over the weekend, we will have a good deal of clouds most of the time through tomorrow, but there will be some peeks of sun at times. Although the main corridor of rain through tomorrow stays west of the mountains, we will have a few showers drift through from time to time.
The next system swings in early Wednesday, so I expect a healthy round of showers and some storms later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While I can't rule out severe weather, instability looks to be a little too lacking for a major outbreak. But we will watch it closely.
The weather will then be fantastic for Thanksgiving and the big shopping day Friday with lots of sun and cooler temps.
Weekend forecast woes....
Wow, extremely challenging forecast. Most models had been indicating the next trough splits as it moved into the central US, resulting in a big closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley that then meanders to the Carolinas by around Monday. The GFS and Canadian are still on board with that scenario, but the 0z Euro broke continuity and makes the northern branch dominant, resulting basically in a dry frontal passage for most in the region. See the video for more...
Brrr! Many spots around the region spent several hours in the 20s early this morning. As I am typing this, the top of Sugar Mountain is sitting at 16 degrees!
We will have sunshine all day today, but foothills and Piedmont highs will only be able to warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows again tonight will drop into the upper 20s in many spots.
This weekend, the cold airmass will modify with highs well into the 50s Saturday and well into the 60s Sunday.
Look for a good deal of clouds to be with us Sunday through the middle of next week. Some modeling wants to bring a little rain in Sunday, but I have not gone with that solution and have held the rain chances off until later Tuesday and Wednesday.
At this point, it looks cool and dry for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
It was a rough evening across our region yesterday as several tornadic storms ripped through. Unfortunately, there have been several fatalities, and storm surveys are being conducted today.
Behind that system, colder air is flowing into the region, and temps will slowly fall through the day. We will see showers linger through this morning, but then some sun works in this afternoon.
Lows tonight will drop below 30 in many spots, and highs tomorrow will only make it into the upper 40s and lower 50s despite a sunny sky.
Saturday's highs will warm into the 50s with some 60s Sunday.
Next week....
Our next system will likely arrive around Wednesday next week with some rain chances for that big travel day. There is tons of disagreement amongst the modeling as to exactly how things will transpire later next week, but the general idea looks to be some rain chances Wednesday followed by cooler air for Thanksgiving.
There are growing signs of a big blast of cold air in the days following Thanksgiving.
A pretty dynamic setup today and tonight. Highs will again surge into the 70s this afternoon, well above mid-November averages. At the same time, our next system is moving into the region and bringing some waves of showers and thunderstorms.
There will be tons of dynamics involved with this system, but the question mark remains instability. Over the last couple of model cycles, instability values have been increasing, and I do think a few severe storms are possible across the region this afternoon and evening. I can't rule out a couple of tornadoes, but damaging wind will probably be the biggest severe threat.
Rain will linger overnight and through much of tomorrow morning as colder air spills in. The temp will not rise much tomorrow with low and mid 50s for highs. Lows will be sub-freezing Friday and Saturday morning for most in the region with highs again in the 50s Friday and in some spots Saturday too. Highs warm well into the 60s by Sunday.
Pattern change???
There will not be a major pattern change through next week, and I still see no definitive indication of when a wholesale pattern change might occur.
A warm and breezy mid-November day will unfold across the region today with highs well into the 70s under a partly sunny sky. Winds will gust out of the southwest to 20-30mph at times. Lows tonight will only drop into the low and mid 60s for most.
A cold front and low pressure area will slowly pull into the area of the next 36 hours. Some showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible over night tonight, then showers and storms highlight the forecast tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Some severe storms are possible later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Instability will be lacking, but shear will be sky-high....so we will watch it.
Behind the storms system, it turns colder again for Thursday and Friday with 50s for highs and lows back below freezing.
Chilly high pressure continues to build into the region today. We will have full sunshine through the day, but it will be chilly and fairly breezy with Piedmont highs in the low to at best mid 50s.
Lows tonight will be sub-freezing for most....and many of the normally colder spots will likely dip into the upper 20s.
As the area of high pressure slides offshore, we will get into the southwest flow on the back side of the high. That means temps will rebound fairly quickly over the next few days with highs in the 60s over the weekend and into the lower 70s by Monday in many areas.
See the video for more information on the longer range...
Our next cold front is pressing through the region today, and a quick-hitting band of showers will accompany it in some spots. Our highs will occur in many areas around lunchtime with slowly falling temps thereafter.
Lows tonight will wind up well down into the 30s with highs tomorrow only in the low and mid 50s. Lows Saturday morning will be sub-freezing in most spots in the region.
Temps will rebound quickly through the weekend with some highs returning to the lower 70s in some spots Monday. There is then lots of uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front next week.....see the video for more.
Long-range...
See the video for more on this as well.....there are signs of some high-latitude blocking setting up by later next week. If that occurs, it would likely usher some big-time cold into North America later this month. When and if it would make it here remains a question mark, but the week of Thanksgiving or the week after are possibilities.
Ahead of our next cold front, highs today will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. We will have a lot of sun, but clouds will begin to increase this afternoon as the front approaches.
The front will move through tomorrow with some clouds but very little, if any, in the way of rain.
Much colder air will arrive behind the front with highs in the low and mid 50s at best Friday with a sunny sky. Lows Saturday morning will likely dip below 30 in many locations.
A quick rebound in temps will then occur as we get into early next week with highs well into the 60s again by Sunday and Monday.
Sean...
Sean transitioned from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm, meaning it now has all of the normal characteristics of a tropical system. It is getting picked up by our approaching trough and will head northeast through the north Atlantic.
After a chilly start with 30s and 40s for lows this morning, highs will warm into the lower 70s for many across the region today. Highs will be similar tomorrow, albeit a degree or two cooler in many spots.
It was an active severe weather day yesterday across Oklahoma and Texas, and more severe weather is likely today a little farther east from eastern Texas into the Ozarks and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The main dynamics with that system will head toward the Great Lakes, so there will not be a lot of the support or moisture needed for rain by the time the front makes it here Thursday. We might have a brief, passing shower in a few spots, but the main story with the front will be another sharp temperature change.
Behind the front, highs will struggle to make it into the low and mid 50s Friday with lows by Saturday morning likely below 30 in a number of spots.
Sean....
Subtropical Storm Sean has formed from the low pressure that is meandering between Bermuda and the Bahamas. While some heavy rains from this could get pulled northward into parts of the Northeast later this week, the actual system should get picked up by our late-week trough and turned out to sea.
After soaking rains last night, we are now on the northwest side of an area of low pressure. The result today will be chilly, breezy conditions with some showers from time to time. Temps will only be in the 50s today and winds will gust over 20 and 30mph at times.
A dry but chilly weekend is on tap with lots of sun and highs in the low to mid 50s tomorrow and mid to upper 50s Sunday. Highs return to the 60s next work week.
Our next system will then bring some rain chances back to the region by Wednesday night and Thursday.
Here is the precip forecast from the HPC for the next 48 hours....the heaviest rain in much of NC will be later tonight into early Friday.
Here is today's edition of the video...
We are squeezing in one more day today with sunshine and highs in the 60s prior to the arrival of our next storm system. A potent upper level low is approaching from the west, and we will see rain arrive as soon as later this evening in the Piedmont....sooner in the mountains.
The rain could be heavy at times later tonight into early Friday, and then some rain will linger off and on through much of Friday.
Rainfall amounts look pretty generous for much of North Carolina with this system....maybe widespread amounts of 0.75"-2" across the region.
The system will be gone in time for a dry, albeit fairly chilly, weekend. Saturday will feature sun but highs in the 50s.
Check out a couple of traffic cam shots from Denver early this morning....near white-out conditions. This is the same system that will arrive into our region tomorrow night.
We will continue to have a sunny sky across the region today with highs warming into the 60s, and conditions will really be much the same tomorrow.
Our next system will then arrive tomorrow night and spread rain into the region. It appears that the rain and clouds will linger for much of Friday as a potent upper level low moves through.
Behind that system, look for cool, dry weekend conditions with some 50s for highs Saturday and 60s Sunday.
Next week....
I still expect a nice warm-up for a portion of next week with highs warming toward the lower 70s the first few days of the work week.
There remain some signs of blocking setting up at some point toward mid-month, which, if that occurs, would allow for a charge of arctic air into the US. However, I don't yet have a good feel on the timing of that.
The low that brought some soaking rains to eastern NC and southeast VA continues to pull away, and in the wake of that system, the region will have full sun today and tomorrow. Afternoon highs will get a little milder overall with some low and mid 60s the next couple of days.
Our next system will swing in here by Thursday night. Look for some good rain chances with that one by Thursday afternoon in the mountains and then Thursday night for the Piedmont.
It still appears that system will depart in time for a lot of sun on Saturday.
October....
Temperatures for the month of October were a bit below average across the region as a whole. Most observing sites recorded monthly temps on the order of 1-2 degrees below average.
An area of low pressure will slide by off of the Carolina coast later today and this evening. The result will be some rain making it into eastern parts of the region this afternoon into early this evening. I expect the majority of the rain will only make it about as far west as I-95, but some modeling is further west than than, so I can't completely rule out a brief bit of rain this afternoon as far west as maybe Union, Montgomery, Randolph, or Alamance counties. Highs today will be in the 50s.
For the Charlotte and Triad viewing areas, the forecast for trick-or-treating looks fine with evening temps slipping into and through the 40s.
Look for lots of sun tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 60s. Rain will return by Thursday night into Friday, but at this time, the weekend forecast again looks dry.
Temperatures will fall through the day today behind a cold front now to our south. In fact, many Piedmont spots will see afternoon temps in the 40s with some 30s by tonight.
Some mainly light rain will spread into some areas today, then as an area of low pressure strengthens along the coast, the rain will get heavier at times tonight. Like I mentioned, it will be a very chilly rain with many Piedmont and Foothill locations in the 30s with the rain later tonight into Saturday morning.
As the thicknesses crash, some snow will be involved in some mountain locations, and I would not be at all surprised to see some snowflakes in the northern Foothills later tonight and Saturday morning.
While rain will be with us briefly Saturday morning, I anticipate lots of afternoon sun building in with windy conditions....gusts over 30mph at times out of the northwest. Couple that with temps struggling to make it to the lower 50s....it will be chilly.
Lows Sunday and Monday mornings drop into the low and mid 30s around the Piedmont....good enough for frosts and light freezes.
Be sure and check out my Winter Outlook in the post right below this one.
Here is the Winter Outlook Video....please see the discussion below for tons of specifics.
Before I get into the specifics of the forecast, I will lay the groundwork for my thinking on the upcoming Winter. Some factors that will impact the season.....
ENSO: After a La Nina last Winter, the ENSO went to a neutral stage earlier this year and is now back into the weak La Nina category. My forecast is going with the idea of a weak to possibly moderate La Nina being in place through the Winter. In looking at some analogs, I used several years that were La Nina Winters that also had La Ninas the previous Winter.
PDO: We are in a cool phase of the PDO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. I placed more weight on my analogs from the previous cold phase of the PDO.
NAO: Around our part of the country, the NAO is often what truly drives the ship in terms of the overall pattern. Looking at the longer-term, the NAO was in a largely positive phase through the late 80s into the early 200s, but recently, we seem to be heading into another longer-term negative phase, like occurred during the 50s and 60s.
QBO: Admittedly, this is an index that I am not overly comfortable with as of yet, but this is heading into the negative phase, which should lead to more blocking in the pattern.
While there is always short-term variability in the NAO, I am looking at it in the broader perspective. I am basing a lot of my Winter ideas on the thoughts that the NAO will have a tendency to be negative.
Solar activity: Although it is now rebounding some, we are still in a relative minimum in terms of sunspot activity.
Finally, I always like to look at how the pattern has behaved in October. Lots of times, this can clue you in on the pattern for at least parts of the upcoming Winter. The pattern this month has featured overall a good deal of eastern North American troughing. There have also been several powerhouse storm systems as well as numerous closed upper air lows.
The forecast: You can see the national maps below, but for this discussion, I will focus on the Carolinas and Southeast.
When looking at the Winter as a whole (December, January, and February), I am going with the idea of temperatures being near average. With that said, I would lean toward a colder than normal December and possibly January and possibly an above average February.
As for precipitation, for the Carolinas and most of Georgia and Alabama, I am going with the idea of near average precipitation with above average precip from Kentucky and the Virginias northward. I am going with below average precip along the Gulf coast into Florida.
So, what does that mean for snow? I am always hesitant to forecast above or below average snow, especially around here since one good snow event can put you above average for the season, and even in individual winter weather events, there is a ton of variability in the totals from one spot to another. But I do think much of the region has a good chance of meeting or exceeding their annual snow averages.
I also want to mention that we are really overdue for an icing event in the CAD areas of the Carolinas into NE Georgia. So I would not be surprised at all to see an ice event in December or January.
As always, I reserve the right to adjust this forecast if necessary prior to the end of November.
Below are the national forecast maps. Please watch the video for more insights into the Winter Outlook.
before highs tomorrow wind up being 25-30 degrees colder across much of the region.
Highs today will be in the mid and upper 70s with fairly breezy southwest winds right ahead of our advancing cold front. Behind the front, tomorrow will be a cloudy, cold, raw type of day with rain arriving by afternoon. Temps tomorrow will likely hover in the upper 40s and lower 50s for much of the Piedmont and foothills.
The rain will be pretty steady at times as we head through Friday night before the system exits Saturday morning. It is going to be a chilly, rainy go of it for area high school football games tomorrow evening.
It is interesting to note that thickness values are extremely close to the wintry precip category in the northern foothills and northwestern-most Piedmont late tomorrow into tomorrow night.
The chilly air will remain with us right on into early next week with some 50s for highs and 30s for lows.
Rina...
Rina drastically weakened yesterday. The system will impact the Yucatan today and tonight and then likely continue to weaken as it meanders near and west of western Cuba.
Highs today and tomorrow will remain well into the 70s across the region. Soak it in, because a big change will arrive by Friday.
A cold front will slice through Thursday night, and behind that front, much colder air will arrive. At the same time, another area of low pressure will develop and slide offshore, likely spreading some mostly light rain into the region later Friday and Friday night. Friday looks to be a cloudy day with some rain at times and Piedmont highs only in the low and mid 50s. Yikes!
It will remain chilly right on through Halloween. Highs this weekend will be in the 50s in most spots with lows well down into the 30s....maybe even a light freeze possible in some spots by Sunday or Monday morning.
Early next week, the European model wants to bring in another storm system for Monday night and Tuesday while the GFS keeps it offshore. I have leaned my forecast in the direction of the European model today.
Rina...
Rina stands a decent chance of becoming a major hurricane today, and it will likely be a pretty bad situation for the Yucatan Peninsula later this week, including Cancun and Cozumel. From there, Rina will bend to the northeast, likely in a much weaker state, and could wind up near the Florida Keys down the road.
Winter Outlook...
I am continuing to work on my Winter Outlook and will hopefully have it posted later this week....
We will enjoy more spectacular weather over the next few days with highs remaining in the 70s for most spots. Enjoy!
We will have a sunny sky today and a mostly sunny sky tomorrow before clouds begin to increase Thursday in advance of our next cold front. That front will usher in sharply chillier air by Friday with many highs returning to the 50s.
It looks like a little piece of upper level energy will be left behind the main trough that swings through Thursday, and that will likely lead to a coastal low forming by later Friday. For our area, the end result could be a chilly rain later Friday and Friday night, but at this point, I think it exits in time for a dry but chilly weekend.
Rina...
Rina really took off in intensity yesterday, and as of this typing, is a Category 2 hurricane. See the video for more. It looks like the system will wind up close to Cancun and Cozumel late this work week, then slowly bend to the north and then northeast. While south Florida is not out of the woods, less model data is indicating that scenario this morning with most solutions aimed closer to western Cuba. But that is way to specific for that far away. Stay tuned.
More nice October weather is on tap for the next few days. Some clouds are around the region at times today as both an upper level disturbance and a weak cold front swing through. I don't think either of these features have enough moisture to work with to produce any rain though, and highs will top out in the low to mid 70s.
We will see a sunny sky tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Then, a sharp cold front will swing through Thursday night. A few brief showers are possible Thursday night, and then it turns much chillier again for Friday and the weekend.
There is some uncertainty as to whether or not a piece of energy gets dumped into the Southwest as our next trough approaches. The European and Canadian models do just that, and the result is then some rain Friday night and Saturday as that piece of energy finally moves through. The GFS is cool and dry. I have left Saturday dry in my forecast package this morning, but just be aware that I might have to adjust that as the week unfolds.
Rina...
Tropical Storm Rina is in the Caribbean Sea and will meander in the direction of the Yucatan Peninsula this week. The HWRF and GFDL models really strengthen the system, and in turn, allow it to get picked up by our incoming trough, taking it to Florida. Other models keep this suppressed well south of the US. We will watch it.
A chilly October airmass has taken up residence across much of the eastern US, and it will stick around here through the weekend. Temps dropped into the upper 20s in some mountain locations this morning, while most spots in the Piedmont ranged from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Highs today through the weekend will be in the 60s across the Piedmont, and morning lows in many spots will drop into the mid and upper 30s. That will probably be good enough for some patchy frost both weekend mornings.
Highs will return to the 70s Monday through Wednesday or so, and then a sharp cold front will again approach late Thursday. Look for some rain chances with that front, and then another chilly airmass as we head through the weekend leading up to Halloween.
Back in the saddle this morning.....many thanks to Jim Lytle filling in for me while I was away at the National Weather Association conference.
A chilly, dry airmass continues to settle into the region today. It will be breezy with Piedmont winds sustained in the 15-30mph range today with higher gusts. It will be even windier in the mountains, and some snow flakes will fly in some areas.
Another great October weekend is ahead with sunshine and 60s for highs. It will be chilly at night with morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Our next rain chance will likely not arrive until Thursday of next week. There are some model differences toward the end of next week...see the video for more.
A much drier airmass is blowing in today on west winds that are gusty at times. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for a good chunk of western North and South Carolina. Highs will top out in the 70s with lots of sun.
The weather this weekend will be fantastic with a sunny sky, 70s for highs, and 40s for lows. That also means great weather for the races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the high school football games this evening, and any of the college football games across the region Saturday.
Next week....
A sharp cold front will slice through later Tuesday or early Wednesday. With the front will come some rain and storm chances, and behind the front, the chilliest air so far this season will flow in. Highs Thursday and Friday will likely struggle to reach the lower side of the 60s in the Piedmont with morning lows well down into the 30s by Friday morning.
Here are some pictures of some of the brilliant fall foliage up in the North Carolina mountains. I took these pictures Monday afternoon from the Blue Ridge Parkway/ Grandfather Mountain area.
A cold front is approaching the region today and will bring scattered showers and storms today and into tonight. Highs today should top out in the 70s for most Piedmont locations.
A few storms today could be strong to severe due to the amount of upper level dynamics that will be swinging through.
Behind the front, we will dry things out tomorrow with lots of afternoon sun and much lower humidity. Highs will be in the 70s.
Some fantastic weekend weather is on tap with 40s for lows, 70s for highs, and tons of sun.
A sharp cold front will slide through by Tuesday night next week, and behind it, I still expect a pretty chilly airmass to arrive for the second half of next work week.
The day began with some areas of heavy rain as well as some lightning and thunder across parts of the Piedmont. However, that storm system is departing, and most of us should have a dry afternoon with at least a bit of sun possible.
A cold front drops in tomorrow and will bring the chance of some scattered showers and storms tomorrow and tomorrow night, but behind that front, look for excellent weather Friday afternoon through Monday with 70s for highs, 40s for lows, and lots of sun.
A still expect a sharp cold front to pass through during the middle part of next week, and behind it, the chilliest air thus far this season will be in place by Thursday and Friday.
A feed of deep tropical moisture continues to be aimed directly at the region over the next 24 hours, and the result will be periods of rain and cool, breezy conditions. In many Piedmont spots, temps will just hover around the lower 60s today...even dipping into the upper 50s this afternoon in some areas.
Intervals of rain will continue tonight into tomorrow morning before an area of low pressure slowly pulls away.
A cold front will sweep in late Thursday and bring in another shot of showers and a few storms. Behind that front, fantastic weather will settle in for Friday and the weekend with sun, 70s for highs, and 40s for lows.
Next week...
As of now, it looks like a sharp cold front will move through around Wednesday. Behind that front next week, a nice shot of chilly air will likely arrive....probably the coldest air thus far this season.
It was very interesting to watch the tight little area of low pressure move inland into Florida yesterday. The NHC decided not to pull the trigger on giving this a name, but I think if you ask the folks along the Florida coast, especially close to the Space Coast, they would tell you this had the look and feel of a landfalling tropical system.
The low pressure area is still very well defined, sitting over north Florida this morning. Rain is spreading northward and will likely spread into southern parts of NC later today. From there, everybody will get into the rain chances later tonight through tomorrow.
The modeling is in poor agreement regarding amounts of rain across the region, but I think the overall idea of some nice, soaking rains is the way to go. It will also be pretty breezy tomorrow.
A cold front will sweep through later Thursday, and the weather right now looks fantastic Friday through the weekend....good news for all of the activities out at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Our picture-perfect October weather will continue right through the weekend with plentiful sunshine and highs in the 70s. Enjoy!
Changes are still on tap for next week. An area of low pressure will likely form somewhere between the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas this weekend, and that low will then get pulled northward next week.
I don't have any real changes in my thinking from yesterday. At this point, it still looks like much of the region will have some good rain opportunities by Tuesday and Wednesday.
More fantastic weather is on tap today through the weekend. A 'back-door' cold front is sliding through today, but all that front will do is shave a few degrees off of our highs today compared to yesterday. This will result in mid and some upper 70s with lots of sun today.
Look for lots of sun to remain in place through the weekend with highs in the 70s.
Next week...
Some big weather changes will unfold as we head into next week. It still appears some type of hybrid tropical development could occur in the eastern Gulf by late this weekend, and depending on the movement of that low pressure area, some rains could spread up our way, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
I had the chance to head out to Charlotte Motor Speedway yesterday and Kart race against some other media members as well as NASCAR drivers Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. I think you could take a wild guess as to who the first and second place finishers were. But, I really had a blast, and a big thanks to all of the folks out at the speedway for allowing me to get out there and have some fun.
Of course, everybody at the track is gearing up for the Dollar General 300 and the Bank of America 500 next Friday and Saturday, the 14th and 15th. The 500 is the only night race in the Chase.
Here are a couple of shots from yesterday. By the way, these karts are no joke.....speeds up to 50mph or so!
On to the weather, today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 70s for much of the region. A back-door type cold front will swing in from the northeast late tonight, and that will push our highs back down into the mid to upper 70s tomorrow into the weekend.
Next rain chance...
It sure looks like we will see some type of hybrid tropical low pressure development in the Gulf of Mexico by late in the weekend or early next week. If something does indeed form there, it looks like it will get pulled north and in our general direction, possibly bringing some rain to us around Tuesday and Wednesday. We will see.
A+ type of weather will continue all week along around the region with abundant sunshine, highs in the 70s, and most lows in the 40s. Really, perfect October weather.
Our next rain chance is not until Tuesday or so next week, and even that depends on the possibility of something of a tropical nature developing around the Gulf. See the video for more on this.
How about that weekend chill?! Up in the mountains, the first flakes of the season were seen, and it was even enough to whiten the ground in some spots.
A wonderful weather forecast is on the way for us this week with lots of sun overall, pleasant afternoon temps after chilly morning lows.
An area of low pressure is sitting a little to our northeast today, and that will shoot some clouds down into parts of the Piedmont from time to time today with most highs in the 60s.
As the low pulls away, look for essentially full sun tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with most highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
Tropics...
Ophelia is impacting parts of the Canadian maritimes this morning but will shoot northeast over the north Atlantic.
Philippe will make the hard right-hand turn and head northeast over the open waters of the central Atlantic this week.
Fall foliage...
As fall foliage season kicks into gear, I would love to see your pictures. You can send them to me via twitter @eastwx, share them on the Facebook page to the right, or send them by standard email at matthew.east@news14.com
The big temperature change I have been highlighting for a while begins today and tonight. A sharp cold front will zip through the region today, and along with the front will come a thin band of clouds and showers. The shower chances will increase the further east you go in the region. Highs today in the I-85 corridor will be in the 70s with some 80s further east.
By tomorrow morning, most everybody in the region will be in the 40s....with 30s in the mountains and a few snowflakes possible. Highs tomorrow will struggle to even make it into the lower 60s...and some spots in the foothills will likely top out in the upper 50s. Many mountain highs will be in the 40s at best.
Piedmont lows Sunday and Monday morning will be in the lower 40s and upper 30s....chilly stuff.
Highs will rebound into the 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Tropics...
Ophelia is a hurricane and will pass east of Bermuda this weekend.
Philippe will head generally west-northwest over open Atlantic waters through mid-week next week.
Highs today will warm into the lower side of the 80s in most spots with lots of sun. If you enjoy the warmth, soak it i, because big changes are coming.
A sharp cold front will slide through tomorrow with only a quick-moving band of some clouds. Highs in many spots tomorrow will likely be in the 70s.
By Saturday morning, most Piedmont spots should be in the 40s, and then highs Saturday and Sunday will struggle to make it up into the low to mid 60s.
The chilliest mornings will be Sunday and Monday morning when upper 30s and lower 40s are likely in many Piedmont locations.
The first snowflakes of the season will fly up in parts of the mountains of the Virginias, and I can't even rule out a snowflake or two in the highest of locations in NW NC.
Highs will gradually warm back up through the 70s next work week.
Tropics...
Ophelia will continue to lift generally north and will track a little east of Bermuda, likely as a hurricane, this weekend.
Philippe will head to the northwest, but then a bend back to the west is likely in the medium range as strong ridging sets up north of the system over the Atlantic. We will see how strong that ridging remains in the longer term.
Last night, we had a pretty good little area of rain and storms traverse parts of the region. This was triggered by the same disturbance that brought some rain and storms early Tuesday to parts of Mississippi and Alabama. However, behind that disturbance, some drier air is arriving and a less humid day will unfold for our Wednesday across much of the region with highs in the 80s.
Afternoons will remain relatively warm through Friday.
Autumn chill...
Our first real taste of fairly chilly Autumn air will arrive in time for the weekend. Saturday will be fairly blustery with north winds through the day and Piedmont highs in the 60s under full sun. Sunday will also feature 60s for highs with sun.
Morning lows will indeed be chilly. As soon as Saturday morning, temps will likely dip into the 40s. The coolest mornings will likely be Sunday and Monday mornings, and if the wind can go calm overnight, a few spots might even reach the upper 30s.
Tropics...
Ophelia is with us again, and Philippe is still out in the Atlantic. See the video for more on both of these systems.
A little impulse is rippling through today, and the result has been some morning showers and storms across the region. Highs will remain warm today....up into the 80s....and it will still be pretty humid.
Some drier air will gradually work in from the west tomorrow, and the result will be a big decrease in the shower and storm chances. However, there will probably still be a couple of them around, and highs will remain in the 80s.
It stays pretty warm through Friday, but then we see some big changes.
Weekend...
A full-latitude trough will carve out over the eastern US in time for a big shot of chillier air this weekend. We are looking at a lot of Piedmont highs in the 60s and low in the 40s. If we can manage to get a night with a clear sky and a calm wind, a couple of the traditionally cooler Piedmont spots could possibly dip in the upper 30s one morning this weekend or early next week.
Rain with embedded storms will continue to move through the region today. The ground is saturated in most spots, and we will have to continue to watch the flash flooding potential, especially in urban areas.
Some slightly drier air will slip into the western Carolinas this weekend, but how far east the drier air makes it remains a question mark. I will continue to mention the chance of a few showers Saturday and Sunday roughly from I-77 eastward, but the rain should not be nearly as extensive as what we are seeing today.
A cold front will slide through Tuesday, and behind it we will finally see a significant push of drier air. In fact, we might actually see a couple of sunny day by the second half of next work week!
Ophelia...
The system is battling hostile upper level winds and has weakened a good bit. No changes here on the future track....maybe close to Bermuda but should stay well east of the US coast.
Shower and storm chances will continue to highlight the forecast, at least through tomorrow. We remain in an extremely moist, soupy airmass, and any little disturbance that ripples along will kick of some showers and storms.
The period featuring the most extensive rains could be tonight, and I will have to maintain good shower and storm chances right through tomorrow as well.
Some drier air will try to east into parts of the region from the west this weekend, but I am not sold as to how far it makes it in. So, for the time being, I will maintain the chance of a loose shower or storm each day through Tuesday.
Ophelia...
No big changes here. The modeling is in better agreement this morning, mainly indicating that Ophelia should track a little north of the northeast Caribbean islands. While the steering currents could relax as the system gets east of the Bahamas, I still think the most likely eventual scenario is a recurve prior to threatening the US.
Billingsville Elementary...
I had a great time speaking to some students at Billingsville Elementary yesterday. They were a fantastic group, and they knew their weather!
Unsettled weather will be with us over the next few days. Today's forecast will feature a good coverage of showers and storms at times with highs in the 70s. I will keep the chance of at least a few showers and storms in tomorrow's forecast, and then as a cold front approaches, look for good rain and storm chances later tomorrow night into Friday.
For the weekend, I will go ahead and cave and mention the chance of a loose shower or two Saturday and Sunday, but the weekend looks far from a wash-out.
Drier and cooler air will eventually slide in here by next week, and when it does, look for 70s for highs and 50s for lows with a good deal of sun.
Ophelia...
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed in the Atlantic and will be near the Lesser Antilles later this week. The most likely eventual scenario is a recurve prior to impacting the US, but I can't guarantee that, and we will continue to watch it.
I am a husband, father of five, and meteorologist. I am a believer in the Lord Jesus Christ and am thankful for all of the Lord's blessings in my life.
"He is not here, but He has been resurrected!... Luke 24:6
