Showers and some storms...

A pretty dynamic setup today and tonight. Highs will again surge into the 70s this afternoon, well above mid-November averages. At the same time, our next system is moving into the region and bringing some waves of showers and thunderstorms.

There will be tons of dynamics involved with this system, but the question mark remains instability. Over the last couple of model cycles, instability values have been increasing, and I do think a few severe storms are possible across the region this afternoon and evening. I can't rule out a couple of tornadoes, but damaging wind will probably be the biggest severe threat.

Rain will linger overnight and through much of tomorrow morning as colder air spills in. The temp will not rise much tomorrow with low and mid 50s for highs. Lows will be sub-freezing Friday and Saturday morning for most in the region with highs again in the 50s Friday and in some spots Saturday too. Highs warm well into the 60s by Sunday.

Pattern change???

There will not be a major pattern change through next week, and I still see no definitive indication of when a wholesale pattern change might occur.