Deep South Snow....

>> Thursday, February 11, 2010



See the video for lots of details on our upcoming weather....

A snow event is on the way for the Deep South, and accumulating snow is likely from parts of Texas across much of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into South Carolina. This is not a huge snow storm, but it is enough for accumulations in large portions of those states, and accumulating snow is always a big deal in the Deep South. The heavies amounts of snow will likely occur roughly from near I-20 to a bit north of I-10. The system could even end as some flakes in places like New Orleans and Biloxi.

For our area, today will be quiet and not nearly as windy as yesterday. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s with a good bit of sun.

Clouds will increase tomorrow as the next system approaches from the southwest. Snow will likely spread into Georgia and South Carolina by tomorrow afternoon, and accumulations are likely for places like Atlanta, Macon, and Columbia. Light snows could very well wind up pushing as far north as GSP, Charlotte, the southern Triad viewing area over to near Raleigh. However, that will be the northern fringes of the snow shield, and accumulations will be hard to come by. By the way, Wilmington and the Sandhills could get some light snow accumulations with this.

Behind the system, Saturday and Sunday will be chilly and quiet.

Another potent system dives in for Monday. This is a powerful 'clipper' type system. It is tough to get accumulating snows east of the mountains with clippers, but this one will be very strong, and if it can track far enough south, some snow is possible Monday across much of the region.

13 comments:

BREN 11:12 AM  

So are the Friday system have the models started to trend towards the north or still pretty firm to the south

Anonymous 1:14 PM  

It's south and has always been south. Just listen to good ol' Matt here and you'll know. He called the 1/29 storm about 5 days early and we got a small hit. He called this system to be south a week early....so I think it's so. Matt, keep us posted! How does the 25th look? Come on 6Z GFS!! :)

Brad

Anonymous 2:11 PM  

Would be nice to see AT LEAST another winter hit before we say good bye to winter and hello to spring. I know there's no way of telling what next winter would be like at this point - hopefully snowier for us like what they got up there in DC and NY.

TY

Anonymous 2:40 PM  

The system coming through the Tenn Valley and srn Apps next Monday could be a big deal. The ULL low closes off in southern Missouri and slowly rotates across Tenn and all of NC. The stronger it is, the more dyamics could squeeze out moisture, not to mention what it taps initially from the gulf. I'd bet the models start to respond with more moisture on the next few runs, unless that system is futher north and east. Its very unusual to have something take that track, and at that strength. If it were May or April, there would be thunderstorms most likely with it..could get interesting. At least temps still look pretty cold for that one in n. Ala, Ga and the Carolinas interior. I think that one is the one to get some snow in NC.

Anonymous 2:43 PM  

I have had my eyes on that ULL/robust clipper for NC too. It could be a big player for NC that is for sure. If it pans out there would be some convective type snows I'd think. Sort of like what happens when a cold core ULL rolls in and the daytime heating during early spring or late fall. You get pop up type "storms". Would be pretty crazy

Anonymous 3:10 PM  

Who are you ANONS and where did you come from with all this Meterololological mumbo jumbo....??? Stop getting my hopes up!!!! Let me drift in to Spring in peace. Snow in Charlotte with a clipper? Yeah right. Geez, that's it. You did it. My hopes are up now. Thanks alot. Matt will you please put me out of this misery with a dose of reality? :)

Brad

Matthew East 3:26 PM  

The system coming into the Deep South is definitely overperforming in terms of amounts of snow as well as northward extent of snow. For the Carolinas, I think odds still favor locations along and south and east of I-85 to see at least some light snow. Like I mentioned on the air and on the video this morning, I think it is within the realm of possibility that Charlotte sees some minor accumulations...possibility and minor being the key words. Accumulation is more likely farther south and southeast.

The clipper Monday has my attention. If it digs down to our west like some modeling has shown, that is the type of thing that can in fact put down some snow in the Carolinas.

Anonymous 4:12 PM  

Thanks Matt,
We'll keep an eye on Monday. Is this Monday clipper anything like the event that come through last March 1st? I believe that was one of those strong clippers wasn't it? it picked up some gulf moisture and dropped a few inches in Charlotte. I just don't remember that being a gulf low.

Brad

K~ 4:52 PM  

I have been following your blog for a while now. You have been pretty dead on. Just curious thou, no one really is picking up much on Monday or either they are too scared to mention anything after the latest mishaps of misdiagnosing our area hehe. I a little south or so of Charlotte (28079). Now it seems we are in a bubble. I grew up in the south but lived a while in Canada.... I would really love to see the white stuff I grew to enjoy :) Sadly winter is fading.

Soooo wonder why Monday is coming soon and with in our grasp but not much mention?

Tarheelhombre 4:57 PM  

MAYDAY! MAYDAY! Matthew, what do you think of latest models that show CLT getting significant snow. Not only has the precip shield moved way north on the models, but the system is more dynamic, juicier. The trend has been for every system to move much further north than modeled, and this system is now doing the same. Dallas will probably get 10 inches out of this, although only 4 inches were predicted. It is snowing in Little Rock, and it was forecasted to stay south of there. The northward trend has major implications for North Carolina.

Anonymous 5:00 PM  

Latest GFS says NC gets hit Friday/Saturday with significant snowstorm!

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2010/02/11/18/GFS_3_2010021118_F42_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Anonymous 6:08 PM  

For what it's worth, the trend on the models with this storm over the last 24 hours has been astonishing for such a close timeframe event. The trend from Texas to GA has been a bit further north on the precip shield and juicier for any one location than it was 12-24 hours ago. That trend has been relentless, every run further north and wetter. The most dramatic changes, however, have been once past this zone. The runs 12-24 hours ago for the Carolinas have little (if any) precip in NC. The northern 1/2 of the state was dry or just a trace of precip. With each successive run the storm is trending stronger and much closer to the coast. The most recent GFS would suggest that even VA counties bordering NC may get an inch of snow. Again, the changes from run to run are much more dramatic than one would expect to see in such a short range forecast. It makes me think this storm may have some tricks up it's sleeves as it may hug the coast more than is currently thought. It's like the models are playing catch-up on every run instead of showing minor tweaks. If nothing else, if you're a snow lover, the trend is your friend in the Carolinas. Could this thing pull something along the lines of the 1/25/2000 storm that fooled everyone. The odds are against it, but it could. It sure wants to snow a lot in a lot of places this year. Good luck to all of you folks who love snow!! Let's see if the trend continues on the models. I can't wait for the 00Z runs.

Anonymous 6:13 PM  

Look at this model's snow prediction yall!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/gifs/MAV.BSNA24.001.gif

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