Well well....

This will be fairly brief, but I wanted to put something up this morning.

The various models continue to really struggle with the precise track the upper air and surface features will take for our upcoming storm system....with the exception really of the Euro. It has been fairly consistent.

I really have no changes to the overall track ideas I have had out there as most likely....and that is a track very near the Carolina coast, give or take 50 miles.

The 0z GFS had that track, and then the 6z GFS came in and was further out to sea....and never brought a flake to the new England states! I will continue to give that model essentially no weighting until it shows an ounce of consistency.

The UKMET is way inland with the track, and the 0z Canadian is inland as well. While that track is possible, the track closer to the coast, as generally the Euro has had, is the way I still lean.

I have kind of been of the opinion all along that if we get a strong, strengthening low riding right up along the coast, the temperature profiles would sort of take care of themselves in the favored areas where the deformation band sets up (northwest side of the low where the heaviest precip occurs).

However, let's take the 0z Euro. Despite a near perfect track to get good snows from north Georgia up the I-85 corridor through SC and NC and back into the foothills and mountains, the lower level thermal profiles remain warmer than I would like to see for snow once outside of the higher elevations. This despite, in NC at least, the surface winds being out of the north for all or most of the storm.

I still have a hard time believing that, if the system unfolds as the Euro shows, that a lot of the deformation band precip would not be able to kick over to snow. I know there is no fresh source of cold air and no high to the north to funnel in low level cold air.

But if the 500mb map does indeed wind up looking like this (see image below), the height falls are so strong, I would imagine heavy precip rates would be able to overcome less than optimal low level temps.

But hey, the model has been pretty insistent that the low levels really do not cool enough for snow once you are out of the mountains and parts of the foothills. So maybe it is right. It definitely, definitely could be.

Bottom line here....lots and lots of details still to iron out. Folks in the I-95 corridor, this was never really your storm it appeared from the get go...I had always been leaning to the areas from I-85 and points north and west. In those areas, I will just say the rain scenario may win out, but I just don't have a lot of confidence in saying it is a rain storm and that is that...so let's see how things play out over the next 36 hours.