Saturday morning...

Well, the GFS continues to struggle, but the is nearly unanimous agreement amongst the other major models that a low will develop and move from the northern Gulf of Mexico and the strengthen as it moves up close to the Carolina coast. There are some differences in intensity and exact placement of the low, as you would anticipate a few days out, but really, if you discount the GFS, the agreement is pretty good.

The models that had taken a more inland track for the low yesterday, such as the Canadian and UKMET, have made a shift east to a track right near the coast. The Euro track on its 0z run is very close to, maybe slightly east, of its tracks the previous couple of runs.

In terms of ensembles, the Euro ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational track. The Canadian ensemble mean is a little east of the operational.

Here is the point where I will, as in previous systems, caution you not to pay tons of attention to QPF (precip) amounts. Suffice to say the 0z Euro is showing a major winter storm from northern Alabama and Tennessee east into northern Georgia, the Upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina near and points north and west of I-85, western Virginia, and up into interios New England. The Canadian result is much the same.

The reason the GFS is different than the other modeling all has to so with the piece of upper level energy diving into the Lower 48 from Canada by later tomorrow. It brings the energy into the country around eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while the Euro is a decent bit west of that. The result is a stronger, deeper system on the other models compared to the GFS.

I will note that the Euro is farther east with this energy entering from Canada that it was on its 12z run yesterday. Don't know if that is a trend or the modeling just simply adjusting to the correct idea. That is the key to watch for this system.

So, no changes from me. The players are still on the field for a potential significant winter storm for parts of the Southeast. And for the Carolinas, I would still favor areas near and north and west of I-85.

Now is still not the time for towel throwing or celebrations. This piece of energy is coming in from a very data sparse area, so some adjustments are likely on the modeling. So, this could trend into a much weaker, less significant system, or it could remain a pretty powerful system. The devil is in the details, and those details will remain fuzzy for a little while longer.