Cold set to return....winter storm possibility early next week?

>> Thursday, January 20, 2011

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Again this morning, lots of ground covered....give it a look.

Today will be at least 10 degrees cooler than yesterday for most in the region with Piedmont highs in the 40s to near 50. Snow will fly in Little Rock, Memphis, and Nashville today, but the mountains will chew up most of what little moisture is left with that system as it arrives in the region. So, maybe a passing sprinkle or flurry tonight, but that's about it. The mountains will pick up several inches.

Tomorrow will be a cold, blustery day with highs shy of 40 in many Piedmont spots. Factor in winds gusting to 25 or 30mph, and it will be a brisk day.

It will stay pretty cold through the weekend with 30s for highs Saturday and lows in the lower 20s and upper teens.

Possible winter storm...

I still think all of the necessary players are on the field for the possibility of a winter storm for parts of the region early next week. Anytime from Monday afternoon through Tuesday is fair game at this point.

I won't bore you with all of the model details, but almost every model is indicating wintry weather in some shape, form, or fashion with this in the favored cold air damming regions of NC, SC, into northeast GA.

I have really made no changes to the forecast overall....the chance is there for a mixed bag of wintry precip from later Monday through Tuesday, especially areas near and north and west of I-85.

There is lots of model uncertainty, and really, the models are handling the upper level energy quite differently than one another in many cases. So, there is large potential for adjustments as we go forward. Stay tuned...


Anonymous 6:58 AM  

Thanks Matt!
Any chance we end up with mostly snow or this one seem to be a mostly ice event? does it appear to be a lot of precipitation or much?

Matthew East 7:00 AM  

Who is we? Some parts of NC could very well stay all snow, depending on track of the low and strength of the high.

Anonymous 7:44 AM  

Did you see the 6z GFS it shows two winter storms for next week do you believe that? Also this next storm places right along the Va border may stay all snow from person county west...and do you ever look at the Japanese model I think that model does a fairly good job? Chris

Anonymous 7:59 AM  

Sorry Matt......we being shelby area. I figure it is probably to early to know for sure about anything as it typically is

Matthew East 8:09 AM  

Chris...yes, I look at the JMA model. It has actually had a pretty good winter. The 6z GFS handles the upper level feature differently than any other model, including the 0z GFS. So I would urge tons of caution.

Anonymous 8:21 AM  

I hope the other models start painting out 2 winter storms than..and what about another winter story around the 1-5th time frame of February I been seeing that on different runs of the GfS albeit that's the only model that reaches out that far right now..and do you think the AO and NAO go back negative or to early to tell? Chris

Matthew East 8:26 AM  

Bit early to tell....but I think we stay pretty cold due to the PNA into early Feb.

Anonymous 12:00 PM  

12z GFS continuing the idea of a smaller snow Monday through Tuesday an major storm next Friday through Saturday...Chris

Anonymous 12:57 PM  

Good afternoon Matthew I was wondering right now what does it look like for area in Charlotte South or south and east of I-85 .Does it look like for this area it will only be cold Rain?.Thanks

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