Upper level low thoughts

>> Monday, January 24, 2011


Just to make sure I am clear, because I don't know that I was overly so in my morning post. I feel fairly confident that there will be a strip of snow tied directly to the path of the upper level low behind the surface system.

The possibility of this accumulating snow will likely begin in north Mississippi tomorrow night and make it into North Carolina by Wednesday evening.

This is one of those deals where we are looking at a deformation band, a relatively narrow area on the northwest side of the upper air low. In this band, precip could be heavy, and dynamic cooling (cooling from aloft) will take place and allow for snow. But this will likely only be at most 75 to 100 miles wide, and could be anywhere in the area outlined below.

Only that 75-100 mile wide area will likely have the chance of accumulating snow...if you are not in that precise area (as obviously many in the outlined area will not be), you will not see much snow. But I have outlined the zone within which it is most likely to set up.

Upper level lows always contain surprises, thus it is the 'weatherman's woe.' As for amounts, a little early for that....I could easily envision a few spots within that band getting over 5 or 6" with most amounts less than that.

11 comments:

Lynn 1:56 PM  

We'll wait and see how this unfolds, with no expectations. Appreciate how tough this one has been, thanks for keeping us in the loop.
My snow-lovin' son would normally be disappointed in just rain, but not this time! Having to make up snow days at school just takes the bloom off the rose (he has to make up 2 of the 3 they've had). He's hoping if one more snow event coming, it'll be in Feb since they've lost Pres. Day as a day off! Or even better, a weekend.

Unknown 1:58 PM  

That map always confuses me. I live in Raleigh and it has Raleigh too far east in NC. Thanks for the update. I'm still waiting for a surprise. The 00z NAM last night had snow at a pretty good clip here in RDU at hour 78.

Anonymous 2:12 PM  

Hey Matt you are the man, Its always a pleasure to watch your videos everyday. Their is nothing better than having a shot at winter weather.

Josh 2:36 PM  

12z NAM @ 60hrs basically has the snow cut off just west of Charlotte. Hope it plays out and isn't a complete bust :) Thanks for all you do Matt, I'm ready to move on to the next system, this thing has driven us all up the wall!

Matthew East 3:02 PM  

Thanks for all of the nice words....

Yep, those make-up days are no fun!

Cody.....Raleigh does look a little off on that map. Look at the geographic area I outlined, not the city points then I suppose.

This one has been tricky, no doubt.

Anonymous 3:51 PM  

MAtt the NAM has a awfuully heavy snwo band moving thorugh areas just NW of I-85 including Person County also the 18z NAm coming in it has been insistent on this is anyone cathcing this possiblility has i have not seen the 1st post on the NAM models output..this is the 4th run in a row now of this trend and i think the NAM is on to something and if it occurs i see how Person,Caswell,Forsyth,Guilford Nparts of Alamance,Orange RAndolph,DAvidson,Rockingham and City of Danville,Pittsylvania,Halifax and so on counties pick 4-8 inches out of this heavy snow band are you seeing the NAM and seeing what i am seeing...Chris

Matthew East 4:31 PM  

Chris...oh yeah, I am seeing it. It has been consistent for sure. It is really in fairly good agreement with a lot of the other modeling...just a little heavier on precip than some. Wouldn't rule it out.

Anonymous 4:52 PM  

Chris, where are you seeing the NAM? Is it a pay site or what? Can you give me the address?

Chris Enloe 5:58 PM  

Though the NAM is showing 4-8"+, I would go with 2-5", but with these ULL's there is always a surprise ready to happen.

Anonymous 7:18 PM  

Matt, you are awesome even if we don't get a big snow this time. I've lived in NC for 27 years now and I know how funny our weather is. Actually, with all the rain everyone is calling for that sets us up for a good chance at a nice surprise if you know what I mean!! I enjoy watching your videos and reading your post. Hopefully before winter is up we will have another nice one!! Also, to the discouraged out there just a quick reminder that some of our biggest snows has come in March so we still have plenty of time!!

Caleb

Matthew East 5:59 AM  

Here is the main NCEP model site...there are also some links on the "Computer Model Data" part of my site here....click on the left.

Caleb....I really appreciate it.

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